Open-Face Chinese Poker: Late Game Simulations

One of the more interesting aspects to Open-Face Chinese (OFC) is that as you get closer to the end, you can really start to see that there is only one correct play for each card. For example:

Our Hand:

Draw: 10
Q J
5 5 8 K
5 9 8 K Q

Opponent’s Hand (Button):

Q 7
J A 10 5
A 4 6 K 9

Anyone with a little bit of experience should be able to see that the 10 should go up top. Putting it in the middle doesn’t improve the middle and only opens the door for fouling by getting a queen or jack on our last card. Intuitively, we can recognize the board texture and use some simple logic and experience to determine where the draw card is supposed to go; that is what humans are good at. An expected value (EV) calculator, on the other hand, is good at running out simulations to get the finite value of each decision. It works by playing out the hand to the end thousands or millions of times, always assuming each player will always make their best play when facing a decision. Using that process, we are able to find the value of the 10 in each spot:

10 Top = .08 points
10 Middle = -1.129 points

This confirms our intuition and helps build our understanding of some of the underlying costs to making a poor decision. In OFC, if you make the wrong play you should expect to lose money on average, and there is almost always a right and wrong play. Let’s take a look at some closer late game decisions to test and build your intuition.

Pair The Bottom or Draw to the Flush and Overs?

Our Hand:

Q 4
8 8 2 4 J
A 10 6 K
Draw: A

Opponent’s Hand (Button):

K Q
A 3 2 3
10 9 8 10 9

Do you go for the flush (plus four overcard “backup” outs) and likely win the top by playing the ace-high up top, or do you pair the ace, losing your chances at winning the bottom, but likely avoiding a foul? What do you think is the EV of A on top? As bottom?

The answer: Bottom, EV bottom = -1.30, while EV top = -1.76

This is one of those spots that is a bit tough to tell with basic intuition. Playing the A on the top is appealing at first glance because you know ace-high will be good a lot, and you have a strong draw on the bottom (with royalty potential!). But the bottom line is that getting out of foul territory now is the most important play you can make in a situation like this, and any other similar spots where you are not already getting scooped. So even though our decision is between the top and bottom, it turns out the pair of eights in the middle (beating our opponent’s pair of threes) is the main reason we need to play the bottom and not the top. If we weren’t “all-in” on a pair of eights we would not foul so much with A top, and would therefore be able to keep our flush draw open on the next street. What this hand represents to me is the concept of protecting your equity — even though it’s only a pair of eights in the middle, it represents five points saved when we don’t foul. After all, what good is ace-high up top if we still foul over 65 percent of the time.

Surrender the Top or Bottom?

Our Hand (Button):

3 9
10 5 3 7 3
8 5 8 J
Draw: Q

Opponent’s Hand:

2 Q J
5 4 9 9 A
6 K K 6

This is a close spot that most people miss because they are not taking the time to study the uniqueness of the situation. In this example, the draw card could really be any 2,4,5,6,7,10,J, or queen, as they all surrender whichever hand you play the card on. The main struggle of the hand is that we are going to get scooped most of the time either way we play. So, do you surrender the top or bottom?

The answer: bottom, EV bottom = -5.85, while EV top = -6.31

You may have guessed it, because we are getting scooped, it’s time to make any gamble we can in order to try and salvage some part of the hand. With only two eights in the deck to improve the bottom, and six cards (3, K, K, A, A, A) to improve the top, we need to play this card on the bottom and hope we win the top. Also remember, drawing to the two eights may not even win us the hand as our opponent could make a full house on their final card. This play may go against your general intuition simply because by placing Q top, we always avoid fouling. But what good is avoiding a foul if we always get scooped!?! They both net us the same number of points. The lesson here is to recognize when you are very likely to get scooped, and do whatever it takes to get out.

A Gambler’s Temptation

Our Hand:

A 8
K 7 2 4
K Q 2 5 J
Draw: A

Opponent’s Hand:

K 3
J 10 2 K
6 6 6 7 4

Here we have built a very strong hand. And, oh look, we drew another ace, yay. Actually, it turns out this is a very bad card for us because:

EV Top = 1.44 Ev Middle = 5.19

We are forced to give up our flush draw in the middle, and risk fouling, just because we got such a bad (yet seemingly good) card. Gambling here with A top is a huge mistake, costing us almost four points of EV. While I have gone for the gold in moments like this just because of temptation, greed, or ignorance, I recommend you use your head and not your heart in spots like this; play it safe by protecting the strength of your hand, and not doubling down.

OFC In Closing

Open-Face is a complex game, with definitive, but often elusive, solutions. A fun sub-game to play with yourself is to estimate the EV of each of your decisions before you make it, then double check using a simulator. This helps to ensure your intuitive response is also the right response. Play with your head, always count your outs, and when you can’t figure out what to do, save the hand and study it later. Breaking down common problems, using an EV calculator, and keeping your eyes on all the factors in the hand will improve your win rate and take your game to the next level.

If you have screenshots of tough OFC situations and want the answers yourself, head to www.solvingofc.com to gain access to our EV Calculator, Tactics Trainer, articles, and more. Or if you think your hand is worth discussing publicly, send it to me at [email protected] and I may use it in an upcoming article. Please be responsible when playing OFC online as it’s quite possible other people are using simulators during gameplay. In my next article, we will be diving head first into Pineapple-OFC — the increasingly more popular OFC variant — just in time to prepare you for the WSOP, where there will be tons of live game action and probably a few tournaments. ♠

Derric “SixPeppers” Haynie is the author of Quantum Poker and owner of solvingofc.com.  For more articles, OFC solution apps, and information on Open-Face Chinese Poker, check out his website: www.solvingofc.com – dedicated to your open-face education.