Poker and Game Theory Optimization

“It’s a people game, not a card game” goes the old poker saying. That was the conventional wisdom in the days of the dinosaurs, the era prior to the rise of Internet poker. Then computerized tracking and analytical programs changed the poker landscape forever, advancing poker analysis to a completely new level.

At 57, I’m an old school guy. I learned much of what I know about poker by studying my own experiences and calculating the right play with a yellow pad and a calculator. My how things have changed! Today, there are artificial Intelligence (AI) programs, computerized range finders, flop analytical calculators, videos and all sorts of other learning tools. It’s not even a fair fight for those who aren’t IT compatible.

But computers, like humans, have limitations. One being they are only as good as those who program them. And while you can teach a program to adjust to variables, it can’t read events the same way a person can. Yes, it can assign statistical propensities, but it can’t read tilt like a human. Nor are they very good at reading tells. That said, computers don’t go on tilt or exhibit tells either! And while games of chance like backgammon have been “computer-solved,” poker has not been absolutely solved because its variables are nearly infinite.

Which brings me to “GTO” or Game Theory Optimization as it’s now called. GTO is a systematic method of play designed to beat poker. Based on math and game theory, it sets a methodology that utilizes analysis of hand ranges along with methods of “balancing” your range to avoid predictability and prevent your opponents from reading your hand. Balancing your range means coordinating your bluffs and hand values into a strategy that is mathematically impossible to get the best of. An overly simplistic example: if you bet $100 into a $100 pot, GTO would state that your range should have the best hand two-thirds of the time and a bluff one-third of the time. Assuming your analysis is correct, it wouldn’t matter what play your opponent made, your expected value (EV) would be the same. Memorize and apply these systems and you’ll get the “best” of all those not utilizing GTO. That said, poker is too complex for the human mind to memorize all the GTO strategies.

And GTO works. It works so well that casinos are employing heads-up GTO slot machines knowing that humans can’t get the best of them. That said, GTO has its limitations. It bases its play on the assumption that others are playing close to optimum, something that isn’t true and isn’t even close to true at the lower limits. And in order to accurately calculate the statistics, you need to know your opponents range of hands, something easier to estimate with poker tracking software, but still imprecise. And when your opponent is playing non-optimally, such as an opponent who calls everything, you don’t want to be wasting any of your chips attempting to bluff such an adversary.

Poker analytics recognize this and make suggestions on adjusting your ranges based on your opponents’ characteristics. Some artificial intelligence programs make adjustments based on the previous play of an opponent or a blended average of all opponents. But the computer is really making decisions based on a blended average of the data, not the specific current situation which might have stylistically morphed from the blended average for one reason or another.

GTO is great stuff when playing Internet poker with multiple games on your screen and when poker tracking software is identifying your opponent’s tendencies. But when you’re face to face with your opponents, an astute player can make better decisions based on the mental and emotional state of your opponents as well as any tell information you might have acquired. Making correct adjustments with a higher level of information will increase your edge over just playing the baseline strategy. Of course that assumes you have equal calculating skills regarding GTO as the computer, and unfortunately you don’t.

So how do we best play live poker incorporating the best knowledge we can obtain, memorize, and actualize? I think the best approach to live poker is to learn a GTO optimization strategy, study your opponents tells and tendencies and learn how to adjust from the GTO strategy to any additional information you have gathered.

For example, a GTO strategy might suggest open-raising in middle position with the Q 9 20 percent of the time as a way of balancing your range. One can use random selection methods to denote which twenty percent, such as if the second hand of your watch is in the first 12 seconds. Such methods effectively randomize your play, but there is a better way to determine when to make the play. All middle position raises have varying degrees of equity. And on occasion, when faced with the Q 9 opportunity, your second hand is going to be on six, and there will be two guys sitting on the button and the cutoff (CO) who three-bet lightly every positional opportunity. Obviously, after taking into account their aggression, that’ll be the wrong time to attempt the play even though GTO indicates you should. Conversely, if everyone to act after you is intimidated by you, it’s a great time to make the non-standard range of play. Only extremely strong players can differentiate the read in the two situations.

So, my plan for learning no-limit is memorizing a GTO strategy to the highest level I can and then using my hand reading skills to adjust my play whenever I have additional information about my opponents.

That strategy will give me a sound baseline for my decisions and a fall back strategy on which to go on when I’m not at my intellectual best or have little information about my opponent. And it will allow me to use my “old school” poker skills to make any necessary adjustments when non-standard responses are a better play.

I’m confident this will work. But if I need to make future adjustments, I’ll make them. And the knowledge gained learning this strategy will have advanced my game.

And growing my own and your game are what this is all about. Moving the ball down the field bit by bit, growing our game piece by piece. And when all the pieces are in place, we should be dangerous ass-kicking players. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke