Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand No. 47

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. This article looks at hand No. 47.

Seat 5: 27,869,372 Button
Seat 6: 25,586,721 Hero Small Blind (SB)
Seat 2: 12,661,863 Big Blind (BB)
Seat 4: 16,512,044
250,000-500,000 Blinds, 50,000 Ante

Setup: This is the final table.
Pre-flop A 7 (950,000): Seat 5 raises to 1,222,222.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

Seat 5 and I have our two opponents well covered, and thus we should be content to stay out of each other’s way, at least for now. It would be a huge mistake for either one of us to lose a big pot to the other. While conventional thinking would dictate that this is good enough reason to fold A-7 suited from the SB to Seat 5’s raise, just the opposite is often true!

First off, since Seat 5 should be attacking from the button with almost any two cards, A-7 suited is well ahead of his range. Also, because he should expect me to want to stay out of his way, especially when out of position, he should give me more credit than usual when I three-bet him. That said, playing on the conservative side and either folding, or just calling, are not bad options considering the Independent Chip Model (ICM). What I would choose to do in the moment would take into account all of my history with Seat 5, especially whether I expect he will usually give up to a three-bet, or at least a continuation-bet (c-bet), or whether he is likely to play back at me without the goods. Without knowing any relevant playing history, I choose to put pressure on him without committing too much of my stack; I three-bet to about 3.3 million.

Rizen

I’m out of position against the one player who can bust me while 50 BBs deep. I would usually fold and look for spots where I can pick on the shorter stacks or reraise the big stack in position.

Apestyles

I am second in chips, and the chip leader raises the button four-handed. I hold a suited ace, which figures to be ahead of most players’ opening ranges but also doesn’t flop very well. This isn’t a good spot to call for two reasons: (1) A-7 suited is relatively tough to play out of position; and (2) Seat 2 will be tempted to go all-in with a wide range. Because I have the ace blocker, three-betting is OK against opponents who fold to three-bets most of the time. However, if my opponent calls or four-bets a lot, I don’t really like a reraise so much. My general strategy would be to pick spots to three-bet the chip leader in position and pick on the shorter stacks more often.

If I were to reraise, I would make it 2.8-to-3 times the opener’s raise, so as to discourage calls. I can’t make the raise too big because I still want to be able to fold to Seat 2’s all-in if he four-bets.

I rarely have definitive answers in spots like these since poker is as much art as it is science. Plenty of very strong winning players like to reraise in this spot, and it is hard to play against. I don’t really see a lot of advantage in a reraise out of position, and I prefer to fold. I would like to add that I would be three-betting Seat 5 a fair amount of the time since I have direct position on him, but I would much rather wait until I actually have position to do so.

I fold (most of the time), but occasionally three-bet, based on game flow and opponent.

Action: You raise to 3,444,444, and your opponent calls.
Flop: Q 8 7 (7,588,888):

What do you do?

PearlJammer

I’ve flopped bottom pair, but this is definitely a spot where I need to tread carefully. The standard play would be to make a c-bet of about one-half of the pot with what is likely to be the best hand. However, when I am either raised or even just called, I will be in no-man’s land, out of position in a huge pot. If I bet and my opponent raises, a three-bet would essentially be a bluff for my entire stack, too risky a play with two much-shorter stacks at the table. Nonetheless, because I am representing a very strong hand by having three-bet my similarly stacked opponent out of position, a c-bet should earn more credit than usual. Like my preflop decision, relevant history could really help guide me through my current dilemma.

My hand has some showdown value, yet anything but a fold from my opponent puts me in a terrible spot, so I will sometimes choose to check the flop. My opponent may actually be more suspicious of a check than a bet, thinking that I must have something, perhaps even a monster like a set, to be willing to check this flop. If he checks behind, I will most likely bet any turn, and if I am called, at least I will get to the river cheaply. If he bets, however, I am in a terrible spot since I really don’t want to call and play a huge pot out of position, on the defensive. I could easily be folding the best hand if I choose to fold. Knowing your opponent’s tendencies from some history helps out tremendously in such crucial and marginal spots as this.

Without knowing more about how my opponent plays, it’s usually best for me to be on the attack and put him to some sort of test before he can do the same to me. Therefore, I choose the more standard, aggressive route and bet about 3.6 million, a little less than one half of the pot.

Rizen

I’ve connected with the flop, but just barely. I reraised the big stack preflop, and he just called. It’s possible he’s just trying to use his stack and position. It’s also possible he has some sort of legitimate hand that was worth calling. This is a fairly coordinated board, but I did connect, and there is a lot of money in the pot to be won. Situations like these are a big part of the reason I would have just folded this hand preflop, but as played, I would somewhat reluctantly make a continuation bet of about 4.5 million.

Apestyles

I’ve flopped bottom pair with a backdoor club draw. I don’t think my hand is strong enough to check with the intention of calling, even though I can continue calling on sevens, clubs, and ace turns. My opponent won’t always bet and may often allow me to see free turns, so checking isn’t terrible. My problem with checking is that if my hand is ahead of Seat 5, he almost always has at least six outs to improve. Also, I don’t really like check/calling because many players can correctly assume that my hand is of middling strength and can’t withstand much pressure. Betting wins the pot often enough and makes the hand easier to play.

I usually make a smaller bet in reraised pots since I can easily get all-in by the river if I bet even a quarter of the pot. I like betting around 3.3 million since it would force Seat 5 to commit a lot of his stack to raise me. I think that betting 2 million or so might let me see more turns, but it’s also more likely to induce a bluff-raise than betting a little less than half the pot would be.

I bet 3.3 million.

Matthew

Position is so important in poker. In this hand, the hero makes an aggressive preflop three-bet with what is probably the best hand, but he finds himself in a terrible spot postflop with bottom pair. Both Rizen and Apestyles would fold, despite the fact that their hand is better than the button’s range of hands, because they are out of position against another big stack. Both state that they would be happy three-betting another big stack when they have position on their opponent. Sometimes it’s OK just to fold what is probably the best hand, rather than put yourself in a tricky situation.

You bet 4.5 million, your opponent pushed all in with Q J, and you folded.

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III is available in both print and e-book format. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, “Publishing Today’s Best Poker Books.” The latest Dimat release, The Math of Hold’em, is now available in bookstores everywhere.