Why Bet?

“There are only two reasons to bet,” goes the conventional wisdom. “You either bet to make a worse hand call or a better hand fold.” And, while both those things make sense, there are more reasons to bet than just those two.

Many novice players bet just because they think they have the best hand. And, while it’s obvious when you’re betting for value, it’s helpful to have the best hand; it’s an incomplete reason to bet. Value bets should be executed only when they show positive expected value (+EV) against your opponents’ calling range. The equation includes incorporating all assumptions of risk you take by betting. These risk-assumptions include getting raised, raise-bluffed, getting called by a better hand, future scenarios both in the current hand and future hands, and so on.

In order to correctly evaluate the expected value of any play, you should incorporate all possible scenarios into the equation. You must evaluate your hand’s value, compute your opponents’ hand ranges, calculate the odds of each opponent’s responses, evaluate the value of all responses, and calculate the best play based on the blended value of all the scenarios. Clearly, this involves a lot of “feel” and “best educated” guesswork.

But, in order to make your “best educated guess,” you need to have a good idea of how your opponents will react with given hands and how your hand will play in that given situation. A lot of knowledge is required. But we’ll get to all that in later columns.

Back to betting! Betting to make a better hand fold is slightly less complex. It requires good hand-reading skills to put your opponent(s) on a range of hands; you need to evaluate which portion of that range your opponent(s) will fold and for what amount, calculate the equity of the equation, and fire the appropriate amount if warranted. I see many no-limit hold’em tutorials calculate and discuss the “immediate equity” of a given bluff, but that methodology is conceptually incorrect. When calculating the equity of any bluff, you don’t just add up the immediate fold equity; you also need to add in any equity that your hand may contain if called. This includes the ability to make the best hand as well as any +EV possible from a bluff on a future street. Don’t calculate your bluff equity strictly on the fold equity of the moment.

A third reason to bet is to make a worse hand fold and deny the holder any equity that his hand may possess, current or implied. For example, say an opponent holds J 10, you hold A Q, the flop is 6 6 5, and your opponent checks to you. You should bet to deny him the opportunity to catch a jack, ten, or back door spades. Additionally, betting can prevent your opponent from bluffing the current or later streets. Stopping your opponent from bluffing in situations where he would have bluff equity increases your equity. In these cases, you’re not betting to acquire a call from a weaker hand; rather, you’re betting to fold your opponent to deny him the value of his hand.

This concept has huge application when you think your opponent is on a draw. You’d rather he put in too large a price to draw with +EV, but if your opponents are intelligent, they won’t call you with negative expected value, and you’d rather they fold than give them the right price to draw.

Another good reason to bet is that you think giving the action will induce your opponent to make significant future mistakes. For example; if you hold A-K and you know an opponent has a smaller pair, but will call a shove, there’s future value in making the shove, even though the play may not be the current best equity move. Reason being, if shoving here makes your opponent call your future shoves with a wider range of pairs, the overall blended equity of the play, which includes the additional equity created by the added calls psychologically created by the additional doubt, will be greater equity overall. This equity manifests itself when you have your opponent in terrible shape with a bigger overpair and have increased his calling frequency, such as when you hold K-K and your opponent calls you with 7-7 because he’s seen you shove with A-K.

All of this is easy to state, but ascertaining the right moments to pull the trigger is much harder. Being able to reasonably estimate your opponents’ range of hands and how they play them is the biggest key. Using a computerized poker rangefinder will help you in estimating your opponents’ range of hands. There are several available for download.

How your opponents will react to your bet(s) is a function of reading their minds and emotions. That takes intuition, reading people skills, focus, and practice. It’s another place where paying attention pays dividends.

So, when you’re about to make a bet, think about what you’re trying to accomplish. Is your reasoning sound? Is the situation compatible with your thoughts? Which size will best accomplish your objective? Is there a better play available?

And when you’ve made your determination, possess the courage to act on it! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke