Pineapple Open-Face Chinese: Late-Game FantasyLand

In my last article, we went over some late-game simulations and were able to catch a few spots where it would be easy to make some big errors. Today, I want to use the simulator to study a close spot and help us ascertain when and how to gamble for FantasyLand. To do that, we will review the same hand with some minor tweaks and study how the results change as our outs change. We currently value FantasyLand at 7.5 points.

The Hand:

The question here is: do we gamble for FantasyLand with K Top, or play it safe with 2 Top? But the underlying question is more intriguing: How many outs do we need to gamble for FantasyLand with K-K up top and a flush on the bottom? Remember that throughout these situations we are out of position with one draw left. Any rules we create will only really apply to this street. I call this 7th street, because it’s the 7th draw of the game, but others call it 11th street as you place your 10th and 11th cards. Either way is fine by me. So, what’s the right play?

Answers:

K Top, 6 Bottom: + 2.13
6 Bottom, 2 Top: -0.72
It’s a clear gamble here with five outs and one draw to come (45 percent to hit). If you were playing it safe, you would be making a mistake of almost three points, which is quite a lot to give up. What happens if we only have four outs:
Answers:
K Top, 6 Bottom: -.14
6 Bottom, 2 Top: -1.13

It’s still better to gamble for FantasyLand here (37 percent to hit), but the difference between the two plays has dropped to one point. Let’s lose one more out and see what happens:

Answers:

6 Bottom, 2 Top: -0.94
K Top, 6 Bottom: -2.13

Now, it’s clearly better to play it safe (hits 29 percent). It’s better to just protect our flush royalties and hope for the best on the final draw. Now every situation is unique, and we have to take into account all factors, such as whether we beat our opponent, are getting scooped by our opponent, or, like in this hand, it could go either way. But the quick and fast rule here is: don’t gamble for FantasyLand with three outs. Do gamble for FantasyLand with four outs or more.

Let’s take a look at nearly the same situation, but we give ourselves a more complicated draw:

According to the previous rule, we should gamble for FantasyLand, since we have four outs remaining, even after discarding the 7, but we pulled another really good card and now have to weigh the options of filling two pair in the middle versus setting all-in with FantasyLand. The gambler in me says this is my last chance to pair the king, since it’s the last one, but the nit in me says to lock up the two pair and hope for a high pocket pair draw on the last street. What do you do?

Answers:

6 Bottom, 7 Middle: +0.75
K Top, 6 Bottom: -0.03
K Top, 7 Middle: -0.62

And as quickly as we made a hard and fast rule, we found a way to break it. And it makes sense that the additional value of being ahead in the middle, combined with the chance of a running pair for royalties on the top, gives us enough of an advantage to not set ourselves all-in for Fantasyland.

This is why I love this game. It’s fascinating and complex, and just when you think you have it all figured out, you find an exception to the rule. Some people may think the game is boring because spots like this can be solved with a simulator, but I think the challenge is in guessing the right play first, then consulting the simulator for the answer. That is why I created a tactics trainer for Pineapple Open-Face Chinese over at www.openfacesolutions.com. We offer quizzes that score your play and rank you up against the rest of the community. We are closing in on our launch date, and want to thank you for reading by giving you a little head start on the competition. Use promo code: CardPlayer9 and receive 33 percent off subscription prices. See where you match up against the competition.

That’s it for now. I hope to write a few more articles outlining earlier street play and starting hands in the near future. Thanks for reading. ♠

Derric “SixPeppers” Haynie is the author of Quantum Poker and creator of Open Face Solutions.com – dedicated to your open-face education – check out the site for more articles, quizzes, solutions, tactics, and information on Open-Face Chinese Poker.