I’m a Flatter

As a limit player, I flatted more than any other serious limit hold’em professional I know. The conventional wisdom states that you should always be aggressive in short-handed situations because when everyone missed the flop, you could bet and win the pot on the flop. And that theory is most often correct, if you can assume your opponents are playing a “fit or fold” strategy.

By “fit or fold,” I mean players who play their hand in a straightforward manner and either “fit” the flop and continue playing post-flop or miss and “fold.” However, particularly as you step up in limits, your opponents are often too sophisticated to play a “fit or fold” strategy. They do things like check-raise bluff you, or trap you with strong hands, significantly reducing, if not eliminating, that strategy’s value.

So, when facing aggressive, knowledgeable opponents, particularly out of position, I tend to flat more than the conventional wisdom would suggest. When I let in additional players, particularly loose-passive opponents, it helps me “protect” the pot from my opponents’ aggression by increasing their propensity to get called down. Additionally, when I let loose-passive opponents into the pot, they will often make large mistakes later in the hand, making up for any small lost edge preflop. That strategy also prevents me from getting in significant bets out of position when I’m facing a sophisticated player and may not have the best hand. Playing the worst hand for maximum bets in the worst position is not a great tactic. It gets even worse if you’re the worst player too!

This concept transfers over to no-limit. Often, you can acquire equity by playing a hand aggressively preflop and continuation-betting the flop. Much of that equity is the situation’s “fold equity,” but sometimes “playing your hand for value” can get you even higher equity on it.

I recently attended Card Player contributor Linda Johnson’s Wednesday poker group. A young lady, I’ll call her Ms. Shoes, presented a poker problem in which I stated a case for flatting behind a limper. Almost everyone rejected that strategy.

Ms. Shoes held the A 10, and the player under the gun plus one limped. It folded to her in the hijack. In these situations, I contemplate the “value of aggression,” which is my best guess estimate of how the hand will play if I play it aggressively. Many current experts quantify the situation as a “fold equity” equation and calculate only the percentage chance the opponent folds to give you immediate positive equity. But that thinking doesn’t go far enough, because they dismiss other plausible scenarios, such as the chance of being three-bet, trapped, or comparing the play to the equity value of the hand played out. When analyzing poker situations, one must incorporate all possible scenarios into the equation and blend the total expectation to determine the best play. Just because one play offers you positive expectation doesn’t mean there isn’t a better play that creates more equity for you!

In the A 10 situation, we’re not folding, so our options are to play the hand for value, meaning looking to play the hand post-flop to create value, or play the hand aggressively and try to obtain value out of the hand mostly through fold equity. When you miss an opportunity to obtain large bets against opponents in bad shape, it takes a lot of small pot fold equity to equal the equity you have passed up!

In analyzing these types of equations, one must consider all plausible scenarios. What are the chances you can stack someone? What are the odds you can win with a preflop raise? With four players to act behind, one must consider the propensity to be three-bet or to be called by a hand that dominates you where you might lose some large bets with poor equity. The propensity to be three-bet is mostly a factor of your opponents; the odds of being dominated can be calculated mathematically. Discounting the original limper, there is a .45 percent chance of each of your remaining opponents holding A-A or 10-10, making it a 1.8 percent chance to be up against either of those holdings. There is an approximately 2.7 percent that each of them holds A-K, A-Q or A-J for a total of an approximately 10.4 percent chance you’re against one of those holdings. So, there is a 12.6 percent chance a hand yet to play dominates you. And the upfront limper’s hand also has to have equity and may also be a hand that dominates yours. How all that will play, once again, is a function of your opponents.

An additional component of the A 10 hand is that it makes the nut flush as well as one combination of a nut straight. Those hands have huge value against opponents with smaller straights or flushes. In no-limit, particularly if your opponents are playing their draws aggressively, you can acquire high equity bets when you have your opponent drawing to a weaker draw than yourself. And, if you make the hand, you’re likely to stack them. So, when you have hands that “play well” for stacks in the current situation, taking into account the texture of your opponents, you should lean more toward playing your hand for post-flop value.

I wasn’t at the table when Ms. Shoes played the hand, don’t have a good read on the situation, and I’m unsure whether I would have raised or flatted. My determination would be based almost exclusively on my read. The texture of your opponent(s) is everything in such decisions. For example, I play it differently if the limper is Mr. Scared Sammy rather than Mr. Dead Drunk Dan. Additionally, I may play it differently if there is a highly aggressive three-bettor yet to act. And there are other issues, too many for this column space. I just wanted to demonstrate a thought process for your preflop strategy decisions. Consider how your opponent(s) are likely to act, think about how the hand will play, and make your best equity move.

Additionally, when you make poker judgments based on reads, you’re going to be wrong sometimes, maybe even appear foolish. Although, that can have some future value. Don’t let it get to you. Trust your reads, pull the trigger, and act on them.
And if you’re wrong, just play the next hand with the same confidence. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke