Stuffing It In

No-Limit, like limit, is about exploiting your opponents’ errors, but limit restricts your scope. In no-limit, because you can vary your bet sizes, you have a greater opportunity to engineer errors by your opponents. To take full advantage of these opportunities, you need to understand the tendencies of your opponent(s), recognize any potential errors, and know what strategies to employ to exploit those errors.

I was at the Venetian, playing $2-$5 no-limit hold’em. The field was a mixture of tourists, local regulars, and good, but not great, pros. Standard for the games there. Most of the tourists were trying to play well, but lacked the skillsets and experience to do so.

I’d been aggressive in the game by picking situations where I thought the “value of aggression” was high and attacking them. It was working well; I’d bought-in for $500 and had almost doubled my stack without playing a big pot.

Two weak-passive tourists limped, and I looked down at the A Q in the cutoff. I didn’t need a hand this big to press, but the bigger, the better. I made it $25 to go. The button was a deep-stacked, solid player. He had both poker knowledge and focus, and I felt he knew I’d been pushing the game around. Mr. Deep-Solid three-bet to $80, both limpers mucked, and it was my move.

Considering his button position and my aggressive image, I thought it likely he was raising light and four-bet to $250 in the hopes of winning the pot right there. Net-winning the $90 immediately was most likely higher expected value (EV) than I would have playing out the hand. My large bet-sizing was a function of not wanting to give him much perceived set-mining value. I wanted Mr. Deep-Solid to throw away any medium pairs, as those hands played well against my A Q holding in position. I knew I was in deep doo-doo when he called. He was not the sort to call large bets without a hand that warranted it.

But being in deep doo-doo is nothing a good flop can’t cure! It came J 10 9, giving me an open-ender, the nut flush draw, and possible overcard value. I contemplated the situation. I had just over $700 and Mr. Deep-Solid had me covered. I read him for a tight range, 8-8+, A-K suited, A-K offsuit, with a discount on the more medium pairs. By discounting, I mean that I would put less emphasis on hands that I think he might play, but also might not. So, in this case, in spite of the fact there are six combinations of 8-8, I might reduce it to three, giving him a 50/50 chance to have folded them. Of course, that’s all a best guess estimate.

I thought about how the hand would play. After flopping a draw with equity that large, I was going with it. Additionally, I wanted to play my hand in a manner that gave me my highest equity. If I could get him to fold hands that he would be correct in calling with, it would add value to my holding.

All of his range had at least 35%+ equity with a set having around 60%. I thought that, if I shoved all-in, he would fold A-K, which had around 45% equity, and I thought he might even fold K-K, which also had about 45% equity. Analyzing his range mathematically, he had 12 combinations of A-K available, three of A-A, six of K-K, three of Q-Q, eight of sets (I discounted 9-9, 33%), and three of 8-8 (discounted 50%). So, A-K was over 35% of his range, a hand that both beat me, had high equity against me (around 45%), and one he would fold on the flop to a large bet.

And, while my hand was a favorite over his blended range, I’d acquire higher EV if he folded A-K and K-K on the flop. Winning the $500+ that was already in the pot 100% of the time he had those holdings gave me higher equity than playing the hand against all his range. “All-in,” I stated to the dealer and shoved my stack forward. My opponent tanked. He counted out the chips to call, then put them back. He asked me, “You have aces, huh?” I just stared at the dealer. After a couple of minutes, he threw his hand away. I’m pretty sure he folded kings from his speech and actions, a hand I definitely wanted him to muck, even though I was a slight favorite over it.

The hand speaks to several concepts. One, in evaluating the value of your hand, keep in mind your hand’s value is defined by its equity, not its rank. In this case, the A Q was a better hand on the flop than K-K, even though it had an inferior ranking. Additionally, when defining your hand’s equity, you should also incorporate the equity of any future plays, both positive and negative. Often in no-limit, the combined equity of a play (such as a semibluff), plus the equity of the hand value can turn a negative hand value into situationally positive expectation.

You also need to be aware of how a hand will likely play in differing scenarios. What will your opponents call with? Fold with? What is the net effect of those actions? What is the price the play is offering you? Think about what your opponent thinks. Think about how he will react to different moves. Formulate your best play rather than just guess at it.

Do that, and your decisions will improve, along with your bankroll. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke