Optimizing Value

Obtaining value bets is much more important in no-limit than limit. It’s because the bets are so much bigger, both nominally and in relation to the pot. Miss a bet, and you’ve cost yourself greatly, particularly if it is a high expected value (EV) wager. That’s why in no-limit, it’s so important to realize when you can bet your hand on all three streets and still get called.

Much of the no-limit poker literature is written by players who play for high stakes against mostly very tough opposition. Value betting (and other plays) in such situations is quite different from low-medium blind games populated with weak-medium level players. As a player, you need to fine-tune your strategies to adjust to the game you’re playing. Often, when facing opponents who call too much and bluff too little, you can obtain much better value by betting more often, as well as bet-sizing higher without an increased assumption of risk.

Playing $2-$5 no-limit at the Venetian around $700 deep, a tight, unimaginative player opened the pot under the gun (UTG) for $25 and was called by two tourists and a local reg. Both tourists appeared to have limited poker experience, and both had more than $500 in their stacks. From the button, I peered down at K Q and chose to flat. I didn’t think three-betting would necessarily fold the tourists, thereby lowering my fold equity, and I was concerned about the strength of Mr. Tight-UTG’s holding. He’s not the sort to raise UTG without a very strong hand, and I didn’t want to get four-bet and be forced to fold. Moreover, playing the hand for value with two deep, weak opponents in the pot has enormous value too. We took the flop five-handed for $25, putting $130 in the pot.

The dealer flopped the Q 6 5. The field checked to me, and I fired $90. It was a strong bet, but both tourists had previously seemed unconcerned about bet sizes. They gauged a bet as a bet, irregardless of size. Mr. UTG-tight folded; I was called by the first tourist, whom, by the way he acted, I read as feeling unsure about his hand. The two others pitched their hands into the muck. We were heads-up with $312 in the pot. I felt good about my hand, feeling it was best and I held position.

The turn card came the 7. It turned 7-6 or 7-5 into two pair and gave 7-7 a set, but I doubted Mr. Tourist had 4-3 or 9-8. And, since I read him for being uncertain about calling the flop, I didn’t believe he had 9 8. I thought he had a pretty marginal hand, a medium pair or weak queen. I wanted to get a call from him, believing he would call lightly. From his perspective, I was betting on the button after being checked to on the flop and, therefore, he would read my range as both wide and full of bluffs.

I bet $140, looking for a call, and feeling that this particular opponent wouldn’t read my bet-sizing as a plea for a call. He called, more confidently this time, not seeming nearly as unsure. This concerned me. I wondered whether he had improved his hand, and possibly had me beat, but still didn’t want to bet.

The river came the 7, pairing the turn card. Mr. Tourist knuckled to me. I pondered my situation. I felt the seven on the turn improved his hand, but then he checked when an additional seven hit on the river. How could that be? It could be that he picked up a straight draw by holding a hand like Q-8 suited or 8-8, maybe even 9-9. He might have a hand like 8-7 suited, flopped a straight draw, back-doored trips and still was unsure whether to bet. As I was deliberating, Mr. Tourist picked up a stack of chips threatening to call, obviously intending to inhibit my betting, indicating a weak holding.

Since I knew he was weak and didn’t want to call, I didn’t want to scare him off that weak call. With big bets, I thought the bet-sizing would matter to him. The pot was almost $500, and he had just over $350. I bet $210, thinking he would call that number significantly more often than if I pushed him all in. He called, nodded, and showed me two eights. I don’t know if he would have called his entire stack with such a weak holding.

The hand speaks to maximizing value out of a marginal hand. Many players would define my hand as a “two-streets” of value hand, and they would check the turn to avoid bloating the pot. Because my opponent wasn’t one to make check-raise bluff plays, I could value bet the turn knowing it would be unlikely I could be bluffed off my hand. And since he calls light, I could obtain greater value out of this opponent than I would be able to against an opponent who calls heavier. I sized the turn bet to induce a call while taking into account my opponent’s lack of ability to read bet-sizing. When considering your bet size, you always need to take into account how your opponent will read it.

In low-medium blind games, I see way too many people checking the river when a value bet is in order. Once again, many players get into a mind set about how a hand should be played without taking in the specifics of the current situation. When you’re facing opponents with wide calling ranges and/or limited abilities to “put you to the test” with a large bluff, the merit of a value bet increases, often to the point of turning a standard check into a wager.

Don’t leave money on the table; anticipate whether your opponents will call light. Value bet lighter against those who won’t raise you without a big hand.

And, if you analyzed the situation correctly, you’ll be stacking those extra bets! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke