Theory of Mind

Theory of Mind, often abbreviated as ToM, has been one of the hottest topics in psychological research over the last thirty years or so. It may be simply described as the ability to correctly attribute mental states not only to yourself, but also to others. Mental states include beliefs, desires, and intentions. Normal children around the age of four can pass what is called the “False Belief Test.”

An example of this test is to show a child the following situation: A girl is given a candy. She puts it in a box, and then leaves the room. A boy takes the candy from the box and hides it in a drawer. The girl returns to the room. Where will she look for the candy? The child viewing the scene knows that the candy is now in the drawer, but he should have developed a ToM capable of realizing that the girl still thinks the candy is in the box, and that is where she will look for it (The internet will provide you with a wealth of information about Theory of Mind, if you are interested in learning more).

The current thinking is that humans possess a theory of mind that normally goes up to about five levels, and may occasionally reach six, or even seven. Chimps and other great apes probably can reach level two. My first exposure to the idea of levels of thought came from an Edgar Allan Poe story, The Purloined Letter, which is considered to be one of the first detective stories. The hero, Monsieur Dupin, mentions a schoolboy who wins all the marbles by correctly figuring out what level of thinking his opponent will use in guessing odd or even.

In my late fifties, I started to read any advice I could find on poker strategy and tactics. There was very little, and what there was, contained a lot of errors. One of the best of these books was The Education of a Poker Player by Herbert O. Yardley. He mentioned the Poe story and showed how its principles could be applied to poker and some situations involving sports betting. About thirty years later, David Sklansky picked up the theme in the psychology section of The Theory of Poker.

How does ToM apply to practical poker? First let’s see how some various basic thinking levels might categorized for poker:

1. What do I have?
2. What do I think my opponent has?
3. What does my opponent think I have?
4. What does my opponent think I think he has?

Adding more layers of thinking quickly becomes unwieldy. This is why humans seldom stretch to five or more levels of thinking. You will go mad trying to follow a complicated chain of “I think he thinks that I think that he thinks that I think he’s weak, so he thinks that I might try to bluff, and he must call with any bluff-catcher or better.” The four levels given above should be sufficient for most situations you will encounter in real life.

In the heat of the battle, it is very easy to fall victim to either under- or over-thinking. If you under-think a situation, you won’t give your opponent credit for making a good play. If you over-think one, you may try a play that would work against a sophisticated opponent, but is wasted on your actual opponent. I know all of this becomes very complicated, so I will give you a simple algorithm for doing the right thing. First, and most importantly, is that you should normally play many of your hands in a fairly straightforward fashion. Some hands should be played more strongly than their intrinsic value warrants. These are your bluffs and semibluffs. Others should be played more weakly than their intrinsic value warrants. These are your check-raises and slow-plays. When your opponent takes an aggressive action, you should generally fold those hands, which you have played more strongly than their value warranted. You should continue with hands on which you have feigned weakness. If you have played a hand in a straight-forward fashion, then you have to judge the specific situation.

Here is a simple example. A late position opponent raises. You are in the big blind with 8 7, and decide to reraise. Your late position opponent raises again. You have played a weak hand in a strong fashion. Undaunted, your opponent continues to show aggression. FOLD! As far as you can tell, he thinks you have a strong hand. Yes, you might think that he thinks that you think that he thinks you only pretended to have a strong hand, and, therefore, you should raise again. From a theoretical point of view this makes sense. From a practical point of view, it is insane. You have played a weak hand as if it were a strong one. He wasn’t intimidated, so he has you crushed and he will call if you reraise. So fold and save your chips for a better spot. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.