High Stakes Versus Daniel Negreanu

I recently had the pleasure of playing the $25,000 buy-in High Roller event at the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure. The following hand took place during Day 2 before we got in the money. I had been playing a fairly tight, aggressive strategy, mostly due to being overly card dead. My opponent in this hand, Daniel Negreanu, had been playing a reasonably loose, aggressive strategy. He was winning lots of small pots with few major confrontations. He raised from the hijack four times so far into my big blind. I folded three times (due to having awful cards) and defended once. When I defended, I check-folded the flop when I failed to connect with the board. We have a bit of history such that he knows I can be somewhat wild, but given the recent past, he probably assumes I am in line most of the time.

At 2,500-5,000 blinds with a 500 ante, Daniel raised to 11,500 from the hijack. Everyone folded around to me. I decided to call 6,500 more out of my 180,000 stack from the big blind with A 9. Daniel started the hand with more chips than me. Both reraising and calling are acceptable options. Since I know that Daniel likes to call reraises when in position, I decided to call because I did not want to play a large pot out of position with a hand that could easily be dominated versus a world-class player.

The flop came A 8 3. I checked, Daniel bet 15,000 into the 30,000-chip pot, and I called. I don’t think there is much merit in check-raising the flop, because it allows Daniel to fold most of his hands worse than an ace unless he has a flush draw, which will be getting the correct price to call. By check-raising, I allow him to play almost perfectly, which would be a disaster. Leading is also not a great option because if he either calls or raises, I have no real way of knowing if I have the best hand or not. By check-calling, I force Daniel to stay in the pot with all of his hands that are crushed, such as J 10 and 2-2, while making it difficult for me to lose a large pot when I happen to be beat.

The turn was the Q. I checked and Daniel thought for a while before checking behind. I don’t think his check on the turn tells me much about his range. Daniel is certainly good enough to check behind on the turn both for pot control and to induce a bluff from my marginal made hands and missed draws on the river. I think he would also check behind most of the time when he has nothing. While I cannot deduce much information from his check, I tend to think it weights his range more towards either total junk or made hands worse than mine, such as A-4 and Q-J.

The river was the 3. At this point, I am chopping with all aces besides A-K, A-Q, A-8, and A-3. I beat all queens. I also beat all busted draws. Should I bet? If so, how much?

By checking, I give Daniel the opportunity to bluff with his missed draws and awful made hands, such as K 9 and 4-4, hoping to make me fold an eight or marginal pocket pair. In general, I don’t think this would be a very good bluff in this situation, so I don’t like checking to induce a bluff. It is worth noting that checking makes it impossible for Daniel to raise if I bet the river, which is certainly a valid concern.

If I bet, I don’t think Daniel will ever fold any ace. He may decide to fold a queen if he gets the vibe that I actually have an ace. He may also call with an overly-wide range if he thinks I am bluffing with a missed draw. I have to decide which bet sizes will make Daniel think I am bluffing. This is a difficult spot because I have no clue how he views me in this exact situation. Especially when playing against world-class competition, do not fool yourself into thinking that you know what your opponent thinks about you and your range. I have no real idea of how Daniel will react to any of my possible bet sizes. Will he view a large bet as strong or weak? Will he view a small bet as small or weak? How will he view a “standard” medium sized bet?

I eventually decided that I should bet because I didn’t think Daniel would raise the river too often as a bluff. I bet 21,000 into the 60,000 pot, which is the bet size that I would pick with both my made hands and bluffs against a strong player. This sizing gives my opponent decent pot odds to call, while also allowing me to bluff cheaply. I have no clue if this bet size is ideal, but after thinking for around two minutes, Daniel folded. He later told me that he had king-high and that he almost called. While he could be leveling me, his statement makes me think it was a decent bet size, because if he could beat a few more potential bluffing hands, he probably would have called at least some percentage of the time. So, what bet size do you think is best? Should I have made a bet in the first place? Let me know by Tweeting to me @JonathanLittle. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker.