Odds Part 4: PreFlop Match Ups and Implied Odds

This column will be split into two parts. First, we will examine some preflop match-ups. Second, we will examine one match-up in detail and introduce the concept of implied odds.

One of the things that makes no-limit hold’em interesting is that two situations are seldom exactly the same. Players are different. Not only do they differ from other players, they also differ from themselves at other times or in other situations. Stack sizes and table positions are often similar, but virtually never identical. True odds are invariable. If you know nothing about the other hands, preflop A A will beat K K 81.9 percent of the time, odds of approximately 4.5 to 1. (I like to divide ties between the hands, others like to separate them. For all practical purposes, a tie is equivalent to splitting the pot and giving each player their share.)

Since odds of various match-ups are fixed, it is useful to get a feel for the odds in a number of situations. First, let’s consider preflop match-ups. When one player has a pair, he can be up against a higher pair, a lower pair, two unpaired cards both higher than the pair, two unpaired cards only one higher, or both lower. Obviously one of the unpaired cards can also be of the same rank as the pair. When the unpaired cards are suited or connected, they do better than when they aren’t. There are numerous possibilities for matchups between two hands that both have unpaired cards. Here are some typical preflop match-ups:

Hand 1 Hand 2 Percent Odds
A♠ A♥ K♠ K♦ 81.9 4.54
A♠ A♥ 8♠ 8♦ 80.6 4.16
A♠ A♥ A♦ K♦ 87.9 7.24
K♠ K♥ A♦ K♦ 65.9 1.93
Q♠ Q♥ A♦ K♦ 53.8 1.16
3♠ 3♥ 2♠ 2♦ 80.4 4.11
8♠ 8♥ A♠ K♠ 52.7 1.11
8♥ 8♦ A♠ K♠ 52.3 1.10
8♠ 8♦ A♠ 4♠ 66.5 1.98
8♥ 8♦ A♠ 4♠ 65.9 1.93
J♠ J♥ 6♠ 5♠ 78.5 3.64
J♦ 10♦ 6♠ 6♥ 51.2 1.05

It may seem like a lot to learn, but there are a lot of situations that aren’t listed, and it is absolutely essential to have a feel for these numbers. Pairs beat lower pairs at least 80 percent of the time. They also beat undercards almost as often. Pairs usually are about even with two suited, connected overcards. They win about two-thirds of the time against suited cards, one higher and one lower. Some of the results are mildly counterintuitive. Pocket kings are much better than pocket eights. Yet, when your opponent has A-A, then 8-8 does better. Why? Because 8-8 can make a lot more straights. A flop of 7-6-5 is good for 8-8. There are ten outs (four nines, four fours, and the other two eights. A flop of Q-J-10 seems just as good for K-K, but you only have six outs (two aces are gone and a king gives your opponent a straight.)

Now let’s look a little more deeply at the match-up of A-A versus 8-8. In a typical $5-$10 no-limit hold’em game, a weak- tight player raises to $35 under the gun, and you strongly suspect he has a big pair. Everyone folds to you on the button, and you have 8-8. Right now, there is $50 in the pot. If you call, your pot odds are 50 to 35 (about 1.4 to 1.) Even if one of the blinds calls, you’ll only be getting about 2 to 1. The true odds against your eights winning are more than 4 to 1. Clearly you don’t want to take money odds of 2 to 1 with true odds of 4 to 1. Or do you? This is where the concept of implied odds enters the picture.

How is the hand going to play out? Most of the time, the flop will be something like Q-9-4. He’ll make a continuation bet and you’ll fold. This means you’ll lose the $35 call. About 12 percent of the time, the flop will include an eight, and when it does, you will win most of the time. Imagine the flop is Q-8-4, and he makes a continuation bet. You might just call, but let’s say you raise. He thinks you have a hand like A-Q, and eventually you get all-in. It is very hard to get away from aces, and a weak-tight player looking at an uncoordinated board just can’t do it. So you have the potential to win your opponent’s entire stack. If you both started the hand with $1,000, (100 big blinds), you will win a little more than $1,000.

Let’s review the situation: the odds against your flopping a set are 7.5 to one. You are only getting 1.5 to 1 in current pot odds. This would be an easy fold, except that you think you have a good chance to win his stack if you flop a set. This money you expect to win creates implied odds. If you were guaranteed to win his stack every time, you’d be getting implied odds of around 30 to 1. This makes it an easy call. These odds aren’t guaranteed, but they are implied by the situation. In reality, things are more complicated. You might hit a set and lose. You might win without hitting a set (when you make a straight or he has A-K, not A-A.) You might flop your set, and win a lot less than his entire stack. All of this means that your odds are unlikely to be close to 30 to 1, but they probably are somewhere between 10 and 15 to 1. Implied odds are an estimate of the potential money your hand will win if it hits. In the next column, we’ll continue the discussion of implied odds, start considering the relation between outs and odds, and look at some more match-ups. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.