Odds: Part 5

Odds compare the chance of something happening to the chance that it doesn’t happen. In this series we have looked at three types of odds. True Odds are odds that reflect reality, or at least our best estimate of reality. The true odds of picking a spade from a 52-card deck are 39 (the number of non-spades) to 13 (the number of spades.) Odds are frequently shown as something to one, so this reduces to odds of 3 to 1. Money Odds are a measure of risk and reward—how much you have to lay to bet the favorite or how much you can take with bet the underdog. If you can take more than the true odds or lay less than the true odds, you are making a good bet. If you can take 4 to 1 on whether the card is a spade, you have made a good bet. If you can lay 2 to 1 that it won’t be a spade, you have also made a good bet. In general, if you make good bets, you will be a winner. If you make bad bets, you will be a loser.

The last type of odds we looked at was Implied Odds. Implied odds are an estimate of additional money you will make if something happens. In poker, implied odds are very important when you have the worst hand, but have some cards that convert your hand into the best hand. Straight and flush draws are often played when current money odds seem unfavorable. Why? Because there are high implied odds. If you make your hand, you will win more money, but if you miss, you won’t lose any more money. It is possible that your hand has negative implied odds. These are sometimes referred to as reverse implied odds. If you are drawing to a straight or a flush, and your opponent already has a full house, you are getting negative implied odds. If you make your hand, you’ll lose more. In this case, you are drawing dead. Any money you put into the pot will be lost. To avoid this disaster, try not to get involved in situations in which you could be drawing dead.

Some hands look much better than they really are. It is easy to get in trouble with a hand like J 10 on the flop is 9 9 8. At first glance, eight cards make a straight. Pairing the jack or ten might beat someone with a smaller two pair. You even have chances for a backdoor flush. Your implied odds might appear to be pretty good. If you opponent has a hand like 8-8, you are almost completely dead. (There are a few long shot runner-runner combinations that will save you. For example, a jack on the turn and a jack on the river will make you a higher boat or the K and Q will make you a straight flush.) You should be very careful, when you have potential reverse implied odds. Don’t draw to second-best hands. Of course, you won’t always know when you are drawing dead or very slim, but you should know that it is possible and exercise restraint. This is especially important when you are playing with a deep stack.

I know all this discussion seems sort of dry and mathematical, but it really is essential to have a reasonable understanding of odds and probabilities if you are serious about poker. These concepts will prove useful not only in gambling situations, but when making financial decisions. To end on a fun note, here is a simple puzzle that involves calculation of odds. There are three cards. One is red on both sides. One is black on both sides. One has one red side and one black side. Someone picks one and places it on the table. The side you see is red. What are the odds of guessing what color is on the other side? A friend says that it definitely is not the card with black on both sides, so it is one of the other two cards. Since it is one of two cards, the odds of guessing the other side are even money – one to one. You volunteer to lay $300 to win $200 that you can guess what it is. Is this smart? What should the odds be?

The answer to this question revolves around knowing what you are counting. You are counting sides, not cards. Initially there were six sides, 3 red and 3 black. Two of the black sides have been eliminated, since it can’t be black-black. That leaves 4 sides, 3 red and 1 black. You see one red side, which means that there are 3 unknown sides, of which 2 are red and one is black. If you guess red, you will be right two thirds of the time. The true odds are 2 to 1, so you are making a good bet if you lay 3 to 2. Many people, including some mathematicians have gotten this problem wrong. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.