Final Table Takedown: Players Beware: Alex Keating Can Read Your Soul

Event: 2015 Hollywood Poker Open Main Event
Players: 684 • Entry: $2,500 • First Prize: $347,045 • Finish: 3rd

Alex Keating was the number-one ranked online player in the world the day Black Friday hit online poker in 2011. He has been a professional poker player for the last nine years and is also a poker coach. In his free time, he plays hockey as a goalie and even created a goalie networking website. Keating can be reached on Twitter @headsupgoalie. Keating has more than $2.5 million in combined online and live tournament earnings.

Key Concepts: Building quick history; Using table talk to your advantage

Craig Tapscott: What has happened at this table right before this hand?

Alex Keating: No one at my table had more than 175,000 besides myself, until a new player showed up with 400,000. When a new player sits down at the table, particularly one with a lot of chips, it’s healthy to take notice of who he is and how he carries himself.

CT: So what did you pick up right away?

AK: He looked as if he was about 50 years old, carried himself, his chips, and his cards like a professional. He ended up going out of his way to play pots with me. He has played every pot I’ve entered, and he is now in the big blind.

Keating raises to 10,000 from mid-position holding K K.

AK: I decide to raise more than usual, a full 2.5 times the big blind. Since he likes to play pots with me, and he gets to cap the action, I want to charge him a little more.

Villain calls from the big blind.

Flop: A 10 4 (pot: 26,500)

Villain checks.

Keating bets 10,000. Villain raises to 30,000.

CT: What’s he raising you with?

AK: Perhaps 10-10, 4-4, A-10, A-4, they are all reasonable hands, but so are draws. Any draws. Even hands like Q-J offsuit. My continuation bet was a weak size. He knows I’m opening a lot and don’t have to have an ace. He probably didn’t get his 400,000 not playing aggressively. 

Keating calls.

Turn: Q (pot: 86,500)

Villain bets 50,000. Keating calls.

CT: Is he barreling with nothing at this point?

AK: Can he possibly just be betting air? Probably not. However, if he had a draw that turned into a bigger draw, it’s perfectly reasonable to bluff again. Perhaps he is holding J 9, Q-J, or J 8. He could still be continuing with other spade draws on the flop too.

CT: Do you think he is even thinking about your hand at this point?

AK: Well, here’s the good news. The Q should be a scary card if he has A-10 or A-4. I expect him to slow down on the turn, and if not, then the river. It’s hard to be super confident with anything less than top two pair here. 

River: 7 (pot: 186,500)

AK: He looked at his chips and I yelled, “please don’t bluff me again!” The point of this is to draw a reaction from him, not necessarily stop him from betting, but maybe just freeze him. The best case scenario happened for me. I got a speech. He responded with, “I’m just going to bluff it a little bit,” as he slid out…

Villain bets 70,000.

CT: How did you react to this bet?

AK: This is great info. The way he said it, I took him at face value. I think it would be hard for him to lie about bluffing without a monster hand. And I block a ton of the nut hands (K-J). So I told him I made top two pair and I didn’t know how I could fold it.

CT: What is your purpose in saying that?

AK: Well, my read was that if he had A-10 or A-4, this queen would have slowed him down. But there’s a decent chance I am wrong and it’s not something he worried about out of ignorance. What I am looking for is a change in reaction. If he was value betting a hand worse than A-Q, you might be surprised how often his face changes. A player can go from wanting a call to begging for a fold in under a second. And it’s hard for them not to express it. Some even decide to start talking now. 

CT: Did he?

AK: No. He didn’t move. Nothing changed.

CT: So how do you interpret that?

AK: It means that he either ignored my speech, doesn’t have a hand worse than A-Q, or he’s on a bluff because it doesn’t matter what type of hand I have. I narrowed him down to just sets and bluffs. What bluffs? Any spade combos or maybe some pair turned into a bluff. I was also getting 3.6 to 1 odds at this point. And since he didn’t flinch, his value range was narrow. He’s demonstrated he’s willing to bluff, and he’s announced he’s bluffing me. So I decided to…

Keating calls. Villain reveals 7 5. Keating wins the pot of 326,500.

Key Concepts: Getting to know your opponent; Surveying a new table

CT: For this hand, you had just been moved to a new table. What are you thinking once you arrive?

AK: When I come to a new table, I like to talk a little bit to everyone. It gives you an idea of whether they are a pro or an amateur and what type of mood they are in. So I chatted it up with a few players. The player on my right told me that he was aspiring to be a poker pro. He made it seem as if he works really hard at poker and is very passionate. He is the Villain in the hand.

Villain #1 raises to 20,000 from UTG. Keating calls holding 5 4 from UTG+1. The button flats and the big blind calls.

Flop: A K 3 (pot: 93,000)

Action checks around.

CT: Why didn’t you bet your big draw?

AK: It would have been okay for me to bet as well. But I didn’t think I would win it on the flop very much and don’t want to get in a lot of money vs. a better hand or a better draw.

Turns: 5 (pot: 93,000)

AK: I’ve picked up a pair to go along with my draws.

The big blind checks. Villain #1 bets 23,000. Keating calls. Everyone else folds.

AK: Raising here gives me a bit of a problem if someone goes all in cold behind me. I might end up being forced to call off a chunk of my chips. And if the Villain reraises me, I may not be able to realize my draw.

River: 8 (pot: 139,000)

Villain #1 checks. Keating bets 80,000.

AK: My opponent looked at me, and then studied the tournament clock. He looked at the dealer and announced…

Villain #1 moves all in.

AK: This made me stand up out of my chair. Something’s not right here. He claimed he was an amateur. And whether this is a bluff or value bet, you don’t see this play from amateurs very often.

CT: So what’s going through your head besides shock?

AK: Can he be value betting a worse hand? Maybe. He claims he’s an amateur. He might not recognize how bad of a card rivered if he had a set. Can he have a set? Why not? Because A-A makes a lot of sense here; he flopped top set and tried to trap. And now he’s overplaying his hand (like amateurs do).

CT: And he could have a bigger flush.

AK: For sure. I’d find it a little weird that he didn’t bet the flop with the nut flush draw, because it would have also came with top pair. But it’s certainly possible. Even if he had a ten-high flush here I would say he’s overplaying his hand.

CT: And it could be total air.

AK: Yes and no. My big issue here is there are practically no draws he could have missed. And if he did miss a draw, I’d expect him to just fire the river himself. But maybe he has a hand (like one pair, two pair, and so on) and makes a read that I may have a low flush or a set and he might be able to bluff me.

CT: So what’s next?

AK: This is where the chat from earlier comes in. What kind of amateur would take a hand and turn it into a check-raise bluff on the river deep in a big tournament? A player that works his ass off, studies training videos, listens to podcasts, and reads articles. Let’s say he decided to turn a hand into a bluff. What type of hands could he have? Maybe he just has an ace? Bingo. If he has A-x in his hand and the ace is a heart, he now knows I do not have the nuts and it’s a very common coached concept when you block the nuts that it’s a better time to turn your hand into a bluff.

CT: Wow. You’re making me dizzy.

AK: (Laughs) Sorry. At this point, the clock has been called. I have a minute to act. I ask him questions. He answers very softly. He really looks as if he’s not worried about anything. Completely calm, cool, and collected. I asked him, “Why are you such a bluffer, you got a problem with me or something?” He responded, “I just want to be like you.” What am I? A poker pro. What do poker pros do? They bluff.

Keating calls. Villain#1 turns over A Q. Keating wins the pot of 831,000.

AK: I would like to mention I have an enormous amount of respect for the play he made. Most amateurs aren’t willing to run a big bluff for a lot of chips deep in a tournament. You can tell he is very good at applying the concepts he learns. I think without all the conversation I would have folded. ♠