Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- Opportunity Loss Cost; It’s What You Don’t Do!

Mistakes aren’t just in the actions you execute; they’re also what you don’t do. Missing an opportunity that would provide you positive expected value (EV) costs you the profit of the EV. Continuously miss opportunities, and the bucks lost will add up fast.

Playing $2-$5 no-limit hold’em at the Venetian about $600 deep, I was shaking off losing a large part of my stack in my previous hand and looked down at K Q under the gun. I raised to $15, expecting to get callers in the loose, mostly passive game.

Four called before the only highly-aggressive player, who was about $1,200 deep, made it $85 on the button. It was a large-sized raise in a situation Mr. Aggressive-Button likely viewed as a good spot to raise big with the intent to fold the field and/or get it short-handed to provide for a positive EV continuation bet on the flop. I knew he knew all that, and as both blinds folded, I contemplated my best play.

Knowing that Mr. Aggressive-Button had a wide range in that spot that included his good hands and a lot of bluffs, I identified that a four-bet bluff was feasible. Since I opened with an UTG raise, I could credibly represent a huge preflop hand and fold the bluff portion of Mr. Aggressive-Button’s range and, probably, some of his legitimate raising hands too. I thought about the plausible reactions of the remaining field. One player had a little more than $200 left, and the presence of short stacks threatens the value of bluffs because they can call getting the current price without the added threat of having to call on future betting streets. I tossed my hand into the muck.

I immediately got livid with myself. I knew I’d made a mental error. And it’s hard enough to win at poker without making errors when you know better! Having just lost a chunk of my stack the previous hand in a questionable situation and not wanting to do it again, emotionally I was biased toward not getting involved. I let that slant my reasoning and made an emotional rather than an intellectual decision. Something a player with my experience should never do!

With $165 in the pot, had I made it $225 to go, and received 60 percent folds, my expectation would be about $15 per trial. (Win $165 6x=$990, lose $210 4x=$840) or $150 over ten trails, or $15 per hand. Having $380 effective stacks, Mr. Aggressive-Button would be getting about 5.5-1 implied odds, not large enough odds for a call with a wired pair. Did I read him for having 60 percent of his range as a “squeeze” play and being unable to call that raise? Yes! Plus, my hand has additional value beyond the immediate fold equity of the situation. I might get called, and my holding would possess equity.

The hand speaks to several points. Firstly, it’s important to counter your opponent’s aggression when they are in “squeeze” rich situations. This can be done by out-aggressing them, or utilizing trap plays. Of course, you must correctly read the situation. Your opponent must interpret the situation as being one in which a squeeze is likely to work and also be capable of making that play. By capable, I mean having both the knowledge and heart to make a squeeze play in the current situation. Additionally, your counter play will be much stronger if your opponent doesn’t think you are capable of bluff-reraising and will respect your wager. The same applies to trapping, it will work better if your opponent doesn’t read your play. Furthermore, when raise-bluffing, take into account all your opponents’ stack sizes and their propensity to fold, both immediately and in the future.

Secondly, while I recognize the effect of emotions in winning and losing lots of money, poker is an intellectual game, and your emotions shouldn’t factor into your decisions. I’m not saying you shouldn’t quit when you’re on tilt, but rather that you shouldn’t let your emotions dictate your thought process, something I was guilty of in this particular hand. Man is an emotional animal, but at the poker table, you need direct your brain to be guided by reason.

Most importantly, you need to recognize that every time you miss opportunities to make a positive EV play, you are costing yourself money. Many players just dismiss this concept and emphasize only the hands they played. Unbeknownst to them, players who take advantage of all opportunities are kicking their butts, not because they are running better, but because they are betting more money in positive expectation situations and creating greater overall EV.

Don’t just play in a reflexive mode. Think about what is currently real. What are your opponents thinking and doing? How can you exploit the situation? Try to take into account all the factors. Dismiss your emotions and make the intellectually honest decision. After every hand, reflect back on how you might have been able to make a different play that might have gained you additional EV. Don’t rehash the hand with any additional information acquired after the decision point; rather, rework your thoughts with the same information that was available when you made your decision.

And don’t just critique yourself for the mistakes you made; also critique yourself for the plays you overlooked.

And if you do that, you’ll find yourself missing way fewer! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke