Three Folds You Should Be Making

If you read too many poker articles (mine included), you might get the idea that winning players are always slinging chips and running daring bluffs, no matter their cards or the situation. (And in those articles, those bluffs always seem to work, right?)

This is, of course, not an accurate reflection of reality. Folding forms the foundation of any strong strategy. Here are three situations where I fold regularly and think it saves me money.

Situation 1. Getting reraised preflop when out of position.

Say it’s a $2-$5 game with $500 stacks. A player limps in, and you raise to $20 from two off the button with A 10. The next player reraises to $60, and everyone folds back to you.

I tend to fold in this situation. Most $2-$5 players are fairly tight with their reraises, particularly from the cutoff when three players are yet to act. I would expect this player to hold a big pocket pair or a better ace most of the time.

If you call, there will be $132 in the pot and only $440 remaining in stacks. If you flop an ace or ten, after a flop bet and call, only one all-in bet will remain. You’ll often be in a guessing game situation for that last bet. Most $2-$5 players are predictable enough that you can navigate that guessing game reasonably well, but I don’t believe on the whole that it’s a profitable situation.

There are a few key features of this hand that suggest a fold.

1. You are likely behind your opponent’s rearising range.
2. You are out of position.
3. You have an offsuit hand that’s relatively poor for launching post-flop bluffs.
4. The stack size gives you little room to maneuver.

Let’s change some of the details. The stacks are $1,500. You have A 10 and raise a limper to $20. The next player rearises to $60, and everyone folds back to you.

In this situation, I would call. The deeper stacks have three major effects on the hand. First, deep stacks intensify the value of position. By itself, this would argue against calling. Second, deep stacks devalue the importance of preflop decisions. A $40 preflop call means less when you’re playing for $1,500 than when you’re playing for $500. Third, the relative predictability of most $2-$5 opponents works against them more when the stacks are deep.

It’s this third factor that really swings me to a call. In other words, despite being out of position with a preflop disadvantage, I feel like I will be able to outplay most $2-$5 opponents with a good suited hand and deep stacks.

Situation 2. Getting bet into or raised on connected flops without solid equity.

It’s a $2-$5 game. A player limps, and you raise to $20 in the cutoff with A 3. The big blind calls, as does the limper. There’s $62 in the pot, and you all have about $700 remaining.

The flop comes J 9 8. The big blind bets $30. The limper folds.

I would fold in this situation. It may not seem notable to fold to a bet on this flop holding ace-high, but for me folding to a single flop bet is an exception and not the rule. If the flop had been J 6 5 instead, for instance, there’s a good chance I’d raise rather than fold. The weak lead from the big blind is usually just that—weak—and I would expect the big blind to call the flop raise and then usually fold the turn.

Back to the J 9 8 flop. On this flop texture, it’s too dangerous to continue. The big blind almost certainly has a piece of the board to be betting. If he’s got a hand like J-10, for instance, you have a few problems:

1.His hand is much stronger than yours.
2. He won’t be scared of your raise, since he knows that he’s likely to make the best hand if a queen, jack, or seven hit on either the turn or river.
3. He will want to see the river, so he will likely call both a flop raise and a turn bet.

So to keep going with A-3 on a flop like this one, you are essentially committing to run a bluff through the river—that is, as long as a queen, jack, ten, or seven doesn’t hit. If one of those cards hits, your opponent will likely have improved, and you’ll probably have to give up. It’s not a good situation.

Contrast this to a J-6-5 flop. When the big blind bets this flop, there’s a good chance he has a hand like J-10. Most players will tend to call the flop raise with this hand and then fold the turn if it’s not a jack or ten. This tendency makes launching the bluff on the J-6-5 flop much more profitable overall.

Situation 3. Getting faced with a big bet on the river.

Again, it’s a $2-$5 game. A player limps, and you raise to $20 with A Q. The button calls, and the limper calls. About $500 remains in the stacks.

The flop comes A J 5. The limper checks, and you bet $50. The button folds, and the limper calls.

The turn is the 4. The limper checks, and you bet $100 into the $167 pot. The limper calls.

The river is the 10. The limper bets $200 into the $367 pot.

I would fold. It’s very unlikely the limper has a hand like A-8 and is now trying to bet for value. This bet is either a hand that can beat A-Q, or it’s a bluff. To justify a call getting nearly 3-to-1, your opponent would have to be bluffing more than 25 percent of the time.

Most $2-$5 players will bluff sometimes, but it’s quite unlikely that the average $2-$5 player in this particular situation will be bluffing anywhere near that often. So it’s a fold.

There’s a temptation for many players to try to figure out what the river bettor is representing. “Did he call down with K-Q and hit the gutshot? Or is it A-10?”

This thinking often leads to bad calls, because it’s easy to overlook possibilities. In this scenario, the river bettor could have K-Q or A-10, but also A-J or J-J or 5-5 or even A-K, A-4, or 5-4. The important point is that most players wouldn’t make the bet with a weaker ace. Once you accept that assumption, you only have to examine how likely or not a bluff is. When it’s unlikely (as it usually is for big money at $2-$5), then you should fold.

Final Thoughts

While regular small stakes players tend to fold too often in many post-flop situations, a good folding strategy is a bedrock to winning play. The next time you encounter any of the three situations I listed, think first about folding. Chances are it will save you some money. ♠

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the training site redchippoker.com.