Trust Your Reads

Recently, I have been spending a lot of time working hard to learn to play as game theory optimal as possible in most common situations in order to better combat world-class players. However, I have not forgotten that the main way you beat amateur players is by getting blatantly out of line and exploiting their tendencies. Many amateur players give off somewhat obvious tells, either in their betting patterns or physical mannerisms, and if you fail to take advantage of them, you will leave a huge amount of money on the table.

I recently traveled to Prague for the European Poker Tour series and as soon as I landed, I hopped into a €550 turbo event. I lost a few hands to get down to 7,000 from what I think was a 15,000 starting stack. Everyone folded to me in the hijack at 200-400 with a 50 ante and I raised with A J to 900. Only the button, an overly active middle-aged guy with a 20,000 stack, called. The flop came 9 6 2. I bet 1,100 and he instantly made it 3,300.

In the previous hour of play, this player raised twice on the flop, once with a draw and the other time with a total bluff. I also saw him call flop bets twice, both times with one pair. This led me to believe his raising range was much weaker than the typical raising range. Even if he had some top pairs in his range, I still had a bit of equity with my overcards. I didn’t think he would raise so large with his premium hands, given my stack size, because I assumed he would want to keep me in the pot, although this assumption could be completely wrong.

This analysis resulted in my happily putting in my entire stack, 2,500 more than my opponent’s raise. My opponent thought for about two minutes before calling with J 3 for a bottom pair draw, backdoor flush draw and a backdoor straight draw. Unfortunately for me, a 3 came on the turn and I was out. Had I not paid attention to this player’s betting patterns, I would not have gotten my money in extremely good in an otherwise marginal spot, which is always a fantastic result.

In the €5,300 main event in Prague, I again found myself with less than a starting stack, 17,000 from a 30,000 start, at 250-500 with a 50 ante. This was the first hand back from dinner break and three people decided to show up late. A good, tight, aggressive player raised to 1,300 from the lojack (also first position at a six-handed table). The hijack, a good kid, and the cutoff, a tight kid with 13,000, called. I looked down at K Q.

In general, I think all of my options are acceptable. If I think the initial raiser has a tight range, I should fold, as I will be dominated a decent amount of the time. If I am unsure about what is going on, I could call or three-bet as a bluff with my good blockers. This time though, I got the vibe that the initial raiser was fairly weak based on his physical mannerisms. He didn’t look comfortable as everyone else called his preflop raise. This made me believe he did not have a premium hand. I also didn’t think the other players would have many premium hands in their ranges and if they did, K-Q is only in marginally bad shape. So, I decided to go all-in.

The initial raiser quickly folded and the cutoff thought for two minutes before unhappily folding, probably with a hand like 7-7 or A-J. The cutoff thought for a while and eventually put in his remaining 11,700 with 5-5. Unfortunately, I lost the flip and was down to a short stack. While my read was spot-on again this time, the cards didn’t fall my way. Poker is tough when you don’t win any all-ins!

As an aside, should the cutoff have called with a hand that is likely flipping or crushed? He needs to win roughly 40 percent of the time based on the pot odds. Our table was generally tough, so the concept of “waiting for a better spot” didn’t apply too much. If I was in my opponent’s shoes, I would have wanted about 43 percent equity to make the call. If he assumes my range was J-J – 2-2, A-Q, A-J, A-T, K-Q and K-J, he has 48 percent equity and should call. If we subtract the small pairs, he still has 46 percent equity. Even though it never feels great making a big call with a small pair, when you know your opponent’s range almost certainly doesn’t contain the absolute best hands, marginal hands gain a huge amount of equity. If I was pushing A-A – 8-8, A-K, A-Q, A-J and K-Q, he should then fold because he only has 40 percent equity. My opponent made a good read that I was pushing to take advantage of the perhaps obvious situation and hopped in to flip with some dead money in the pot. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker.