Final Table Takedown: WSOP Main Event Third-Place Finisher Neil Blumenfield Learns a Lesson or Two about Bet Sizing

Neil Blumenfield is a resident of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He grew up in Chicago and is a huge Cubs fan. He spent most of the last 30 years in San Francisco working with startup software companies, most recently as co-founder of Elastic Intelligence, which was purchased by Intuit in 2013. Blumenfield has been a recreational tournament player over the last 10 years, finishing third in the 2015 World Series of Poker main event, which was his second cash in the main event in four entries. He now is playing poker professionally, brewing beer, and helping his wife, Pascale, with her retail shop, Pascaline Paris in San Francisco.

Event: 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event
Players: 6420 • Entry: $10,000 • First Prize: $3,398,298 • Finish: 3rd

Key Concepts: Preflop bet sizing vs. multiple opponents; Proper flop bet sizing

Craig Tapscott: Set this hand up for us, Neil.

Neil Blumenfield: This was the first of three big hands I played with John Hinds on Day 7. I arguably made mistakes on every street and, after being crippled, was very fortunate to survive the day. I was near 6 million in chips before this hand and in decent shape, but down to only 18 big blinds after losing the huge pot.

CT: Walk us through it.

Sequeira raises to 350,000 from UTG. Hinds call from UTG+1.

NB: I look down and see A A. This is a great scenario for me. I am certainly going to raise. The question is how much.

Blumenfield raises to 860,000 from the button.

CT: Why did you choose that amount to reraise?

NB: Well my raise to 860,000 is okay against one opponent, but against two, a call from Sequeria is likely, which will give great odds for Hinds to also call. Getting one call here is good, but two callers is not what I want with aces.

CT: So in hindsight you didn’t love your sizing? What else were you thinking about in terms of the type of opponents you were facing?

NB: I was thinking that Sequeria had been very aggressive and if he thought I was squeezing, then he may four-bet, which is not a bad thought. In hindsight, I like a raise to around 1.1 million much better. That makes two calls unlikely and still gives Sequeria plenty of room to four-bet. And if my raise ends the hand now, the pot is already going to increase my stack by about 20 percent, which is certainly a positive outcome.
Sequeira folds. Hinds calls.

NB: Hinds is getting great odds to call with a lot of dead money in the pot.

Flop: 10 8 4 (pot: 2,580,000)

NB: The flop is very dry and, unless Hinds flopped a set, I am well ahead.

Blumenfield bets 450,000.

CT: That seems like such a small bet into a very large pot. A wide range of hands can float you in this spot. What is going through your head now?

NB: Well, once again my bet sizing is horrible. I am being a little too cute, suggesting I missed the flop with something like A-J, A-Q, A-K, or maybe K-Q. I certainly induce a very easy call as he is now getting incredible pot odds. He should call here with any two cards. This bet should be about half the pot, or around 1.2 million. I am going to continuation bet this flop most of the time and I may still get called if Hinds is holding something like 9-9 or J-J. So the bet sizing, while inflating the pot in which I am almost certainly ahead, is really asking for trouble if he has any piece of the board. Moreover, with 2.6 million in the pot and a little over 5 million behind, I should be thinking about how to get it all-in on three streets and that would be best accomplished with something like a 1.2 million bet, allowing me to bet the turn and shove the river or just shove the turn, depending on what comes on the turn.

Hinds calls.

Turn: A (pot: 3,480,000)

CT: Good and a bad card for you.

NB: Yes. The turn brings good and bad news. The A gives me a set, but also puts the third club on the board.

Hinds checks. Blumenfield checks.

NB: When Hinds checks, I check behind. I did this not so much out of fear of the flush, but to underrepresent my hand and look for a big bet on any river that is not a club. The other problem with my line here is that I have very little info on Hinds’ hand (the good news is he has no way to read me the way I’ve played this). There are not a lot of two-club hands he should have, but with my small raise preflop and my ridiculously small flop bet, even with the A on the board, he could be holding something like K-Q, Q-J, or even J-10 suited. In fact, with three aces accounted for, his most likely holdings are pairs 7-7 through J-J or suited Broadway cards. Again, I think a bet here, a little over half pot would be better, as that would give him slightly incorrect odds for continuing with a flush draw, but also make it hard for him to fold something like J-J.

CT: You seem a little frustrated about how you played this turn.

NB: Well, as it turns out, checking back here may have kept me in the tournament. With top pair and the second nut flush draw, Hinds was likely not folding to any bet. We may have gotten it all in right there on the turn.

River: 7 (pot: 3,480,000)

Hinds bets 1,700,000.

CT: That’s not pretty.

NB: Not at all. The fourth club on the river is obviously a disaster for me. Again, the way it was played, there may be room for a bluff from Hinds, as I almost never will check back the K on the turn. There are almost no hands I have where I would have been checking a made flush on the turn as the A is on the board. So really my only problem hand for him is A-K with the K. But again, in his mind, I am never checking that on the turn.

CT: But you did check a set of aces on the turn.

NB: I did. So maybe I would have. I could have had K-K in his mind with the K, which may have been played this way. I do beat all of his bluffs on this river, but now my set of Aces is nothing more than a bluff catcher. Moreover, when he gets to the river, all his hands that do not include a club will have some showdown value, which he is likely to check here and not bet out.

Blumenfield calls. Hinds reveals A Q and wins the pot of 6,880,000.

CT: What are your thoughts now so far removed from the hand?

NB: Well, I guess as hard as it is to fold that hand when Hinds could very easily be bluffing, I had, at the very least, succeeded in keeping the pot small. I should have laid it down to his river bet. That would have left me with 4.5 million and still pretty much okay.

Key Concepts: Bet sizing; Blind vs. blind

NB: This hand is pretty early the first night of the final table. Earlier, I had three-bet three straight hands, once with Q-8 vs. Stern’s raise, the other two with real hands (A-A and Q-Q). None of these were shown down, and at this time the delayed coverage would have just shown the Q-8 three-bet, but the players were likely not yet aware of it.

Blumenfield raises from the small blind to 1,000,000 holding A 7.

CT: Are you happy with the bet sizing this time?

NB: In the small blind, raising with A-x is fairly standard, although it could also be limped. I am usually best, but out of position vs. the big blind. In retrospect, a slightly larger raise preflop here is better (1.1-1.2 million) to discourage Stern from taking a flop with a wide range. Stern is a very aggressive player, which makes playing a mediocre hand out of position very challenging.

Stern raises to 2,800,000.

CT: What do you think of the three-bet?

NB: His sizing here is good. He now knows that I am playing anything but ABC poker, so he puts me on a pretty wide range. But I’m pretty sure he has a hand that he does not want to see a flop with, even in position. So I expect him to be three-betting wide. And I know that Stern is very likely to take the most aggressive route, especially in this blind vs. blind situation. I think his range is wide, almost any two, excluding hands he would like to take a flop with (like Broadway cards or suited connectors). And with my ace “blocker,” I think it will be very tough for Stern to continue if I four-bet with all but the very top of his range. Even if he holds something like K-J or A-10, which are unlikely to be three-bet with and certainly way up his range, both hands are difficult to continue with here.

Blumenfield raises to 6,600,000. Stern folds. Blumenfield wins the pot of 4,200,000.

CT: How did you prepare for this final table?

NB: When prepping for the final table with Amir Lehavot, we did a lot of work on bet sizing, which was a big problem for me in July. (This is evidenced by the A- A hand vs. Hinds) So one of the most gratifying aspects of the live (delayed) coverage came from this hand I just shared. When I four-bet to 6.6 million, Joe McKeehen was at the rail talking to his coach, Cal Anderson. McKeehen had not turned his mike off, so when he said to Cal, ‘the sizes are so good. He’s not supposed to know about sizes,’ it was caught on the broadcast. That was perhaps the most gratifying moment of the final table for me. The hand also put me ahead of Stern, second in chips, for the first time all evening. ♠