Alex Keating Shares How to Set Up a Table Image and Read Bet Sizing

Alex Keating was the number one ranked online player in the world the day Black Friday hit online poker in 2011. He has been a professional poker player for the last nine years and is also a poker coach. In his free time, he plays hockey as a goalie and even created a goalie networking website. Keating can be reached on Twitter @headsupgoalie. Keating has more than $3 million in combined online and live tournament earnings.

Event: World Poker Tour 2016 Los Angeles Poker Classic
Players: 515 • Entry: $10,000 • First Prize: $1,800,000 • Finish: 3rd

Key Concepts: Establishing a table image and exploiting it

Villain opens from UTG+1 to 4,000. Villain #2 calls from early position. Villain #3 calls from middle position. Villain #4 calls from the button. Keating reraises to 19,800 from the small blind holding A 8.

Alex Keating: I generally like the squeeze play. It’s especially useful if you’re tight with your three-bets. Then most people will assume you are tight with your squeezes. 

Villain #1 folds. Villain #2 folds. Villain #3 calls. Villain #4 folds.

Craig Tapscott: What do you make of the call from Villain #3?

AK: Well, Villain #3 was the only player close to deep enough to call to set mine, which I was trying to avoid. I had about 140,000 behind, as did he, but I think I need to have a bit more chips for him to set mine. However, he did have position and he may have thought I would be very easy to play against post-flop. 

CT: Good luck with that.

AK: (laughs)

Flop: Q J 2 (pot: 56,300)

CT: What range are you putting him on?

AK: Well, it’s really hard for him to have a flush. All of his suited connectors were not getting a good enough price to call me. Additionally, he wasn’t closing the action. Most of his range is pocket pairs. It’s not out of the question for him to have flopped any set here. But more often than not, he has a pair between threes and tens and without a club, so he’s just going to be forced to fold to any reasonable bet on the flop. Even with one club, and my perceived image, he may be inclined to fold anyway, given reverse implied odds. 

Keating bets 23,000. Villain#3 folds. Keating wins the pot of 56,300.

CT: At this stage of the tournament, what kinds of things are you looking to take advantage of at the table?

AK: Every tournament is a little different. Everyone is still at the stage where we aren’t concerned with cashing yet, so nearly all players are still willing to take chances as they see fit. 

CT: When it comes to squeezing, can you share some dos and don’ts in regards to executing properly, bet sizing, and the types of opponents you are facing off with?

AK: I think it’s more important to focus on the don’ts. First off, don’t size too small. If the blinds are 1,000-2,000 and there is a raise to 4,000, then if you raise to only 8,000, all the players will be pot committed with any two cards. That means if you are bluffing, it will never work and if you have a strong hand, then you are giving them too good a price to draw at you.

CT: When does your opponent’s stack size come into play?

AK: Well, don’t squeeze as a bluff when someone in the pot has 10-20 big blinds. If they go all in, you will be pot committed with your poor hand, and a lot of times when people enter pots on short stacks, they don’t intend on folding preflop. And don’t squeeze all-in on a 10-20 big blind stack with A-X. So often when someone opens and someone flat calls, they are flatting with a pocket pair to try and flop a set, but when you shove all-in and the original raiser folds, they will have a decent price to call you with a hand like 6-6, and you don’t want to be stuck with A-4.

CT: Does your position affect your bet sizing?

AK: I make my squeezes larger from the blinds than from late position. You want to go larger when your opponents have position to reduce their implied odds and ease of playing the hand. It’s much easier for someone to take three cards in position than out of position.

Key Concepts: Don’t overplay your hand; Don’t commit all your chips with a lot of short stacks at the table

CT: Can you share with us any thoughts you had before you sat down at this final table? I’m curious about your game plan.

AK: I did a little studying the night before, but that’s it. We were returning to a six-person final table, and I really didn’t like my seat. My game plan was to play tight and hope to work in some good blind steal spots, see how the table plays, and adjust from there.

Keating raises from the button to 200,000 holding A Q.

CT: Let’s talk about bet sizing for a moment. How did you decide to raise to this amount?

AK: My preflop raise sizing depends on a few things: 1. My position. 2. My stacks and the stacks behind me. 3. The players to act behind me, all despite my position being nutted. The players in the blinds were exceptionally good players. Of course, this is just what you have to deal with at a final table in a championship event. So the 2.5x the big blind is on the bigger side for me, as I wanted to charge a weak hand in the blind for defending if I’m going to have to face off against a good player.

The small blind raises to 675,000.

CT: Easy call? What’s the dynamic at the table?

AK: Well I have about 40 big blinds to start the hand, but it’s also important to note I am second in chips, and the only person that covers me is the Villain in the small blind. This presents a bit of a tough situation. If I end up reraising, I’d commit too much of my stack to be able to fold to an all-in. That means I would likely be flipping or dominated if I ran into his value range. I think it’s very unlikely he will go all in with A-J or worse. In this case I end up getting fifth place a lot of the time, where I could have made a couple extra hundred thousand by being more conservative. 

CT: And if you flat?

AK: Well, if I do just call I can see a flop and play in position. In addition, I will keep in some of those hands I dominate that I would push out with a four-bet (A-X and most Broadway hands). So it basically means that, if I flop top pair, I can control the pot and get close to max value at the same time. So I decided to…

Keating calls.

Flop: K 7 4 (pot: 1,440,000)

Villain checks.

CT: Is it appropriate to bet now since he clearly is showing weakness?

AK: Okay. So there are two problems I see with betting here: 1. This player has a habit for slow playing his big hands, and for controlling the pot with his big, but vulnerable hands. 2. There are zero combinations of pairs he will fold to a reasonable bet. The good news about checking is we have the nut no pair. We have the best Ace-high and a backdoor flush draw. So if we’re ahead, we are really ahead and it’s going to be hard for our opponent to catch up. 

Keating checks.

Turn: 10 (pot: 1,440,000)

AK: Okay, sweet. We now have a nut flush and nut straight draw, along with the nut Ace-high. 

Villain checks.

CT: So do you semibluff here or check again? And will he fold to a bet at this point?

AK: Well, it’s going to be the same strategy here on the turn. If he has a pair, he’s not folding. If he doesn’t, then we have him beat. Why bother betting? Very few cards he can catch up on if we have him beat. He might even check-raise us if he’s trapping and blow this pot out of our comfort zone. I see a lot of people betting big draws just because they’re big draws. I think there’s more to these types of hands than just shoveling money into the pot when you might be able to play future streets more effectively with a check. 

Keating checks.

River: 2 (pot: 1,440,000)

AK: (Sigh) Well, so much for making my life easy. 

Villain bets 875,000.

CT: What do you make of this bet? Had he been playing possum all along?

AK: This is a big bet. First things first, let’s talk pot odds. It is 875,000 to win 2.275 million and that is 2.6 to 1. I have to feel like I have the best hand about 28 percent of the time or better. It was hard for me to come up with some hands I could beat. A-J may try to show down the winner. A-X is the only bluff I beat. However, he is smart enough to bet any pair (including the 2) for value. 

Keating folds. Villain wins the pot of 1,440,000.

AK: I decided to fold. I think I’m going to be good just a touch under 28 percent of the time, but I’d rather avoid putting chips in play in marginal spots anyway, particularly at a final table where the pay jumps are so massive. The hand might be televised. And I won’t be surprised if he shows up with A-X or Q-10 either. 

CT: How do you approach the pay jumps in regards to being hyper-aware of how the other players are viewing them?

AK: Well, some players will make it quite obvious they are interested in pay jumps; some will make it obvious they are only interested in winning. It’s easy to take advantage of someone trying to jump up the pay ladder by playing more aggressively against them and backing off when they show strength. 

CT: And players who don’t care about the money quite so much?

AK: With someone who doesn’t care about the pay jumps, you can sometimes goad them into thinking you are more interested in a pay jump than you actually are, and get them to overadjust to you. In this situation, I was second in chips and my opponent was first in chips, and there were five players left. I don’t want to get all-in with him without a huge edge because it is likely others will go out before me, even if I fold every hand. ♠