Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- Acquiring the Highest Expectation

All gaming equations should be quantified in terms of expectation. The value of a bet isn’t its nominal value; it’s the value of the bet’s equity. A bet that is neutral expected value (EV), one that it makes no mathematical EV difference if your opponent calls or not, has no EV value. But if you have your opponent drawing dead, the equity of the bet is 100 percent of its nominal value. For that reason, it’s much more important to maximize your high equity situations than your close decisions.

In a $2-$5 no-limit hold’em game at Caesars Palace an aggressive opponent, about $400 deep, open-raised to $20, and was called by a loose-passive player $350 deep in middle position. Covering both players, I called with 7 7 in the cutoff, the button and both blinds folded, and we took the flop three-handed with about $65 in the pot.

I smashed the 7 2 2 flop, giving me top full. Mr. Open-Raiser fired $50 into the pot, Mr. Loose-Passive Caller mucked, and I had a choice of calling or raising.

There’s a case to be made for raising. There were 8-8 – A-A overpairs in Mr. Open-Raiser’s range and, if I raised, he might shove with those hands. Additionally, if he held an overpair and an overcard to his overpair came, I might lose his future action.
The main value in raising the flop was to obtain any value that might be lost if a card came off that caused me to lose his action with a pair lower than the overcard. There were many scenarios in which that event would occur, but I thought I would likely be able to acquire at least some of his remaining chips in those scenarios.

But, there’s another portion of his range I needed to take into consideration. Mr. Open-Raiser had other hands in his preflop raising range. He might have two big cards and be continuation betting, a play he implemented constantly. He might even have a pair smaller than sevens. If I raised, Mr. Open-Raiser would likely fold much of that range. And that portion of his range was drawing mighty slim against my holding, making any future bets I obtained contain incredibly high equity.

Therefore, I flatted the $50, intent of keeping Mr. Open-Raiser’s bluffs and weak portions of his range progressing in the hand. The turn card was the A. I was concerned that the card was one that would cause me to lose action from his weaker than ace pairs. He fired $100 into the $165 pot.

Now I thought that Mr. Open-Raiser would read me for an Ace if I called and not give me anymore action with his wired pairs below aces. There was no longer a case for flatting. Since he would put me on an ace if I called and not give me any further action, flatting would only allow my opponent a free shot to hit his wired pair, in which case, he would stack me. I pushed all in, and he hesitated for a short time and called. He showed me A K, a 4 came on the river, and I took the pot down with my sevens full.

This is an obvious example of flatting a bet with a raising strength hand in order to keep an opponent’s weak hands and bluffs in the hand. Then, when the Ace came, the situation changed to one in which I had little value from slowplaying. Note why the difference.

You must effectively weigh different runouts and assess any possible risks against the possible gains. This can get complicated. On draw-heavy boards, you need to consider the chances of your opponent having a draw and how your slowplaying will affect the equity of your hand. The equation can be very dependent upon your opponent(s) and stack sizes. If your opponent will three-barrel through his draws even if he misses, you may still want to delay your raise. Or, if know your opponent will telegraph his hand to you when a draw hits, you may also want to slowplay. You must assess the equity of all scenarios and draw a conclusion. Even if you are incapable of drawing those conclusions in the heat of battle, making the effort to calculate them after a hand will help you develop a “feel” of similar situations in the future.

The concept is that when possessing a strong holding, calculating which hands you can keep in your opponent’s range by calling and with which hands will he call your raise? Then estimating the equity of how they will play out and choosing the best play. If you hold a nearly invulnerable hand, it’s more important to keep your opponent in the hand, particularly if you have an opportunity for a large payoff when stacks are deep or your opponent can make a strong second-best hand. On boards with a lot of potential draws that will win, you have to be more careful. If the free/cheap card you give your opponent may cripple your hand, betting to remove those risks or charge a -EV price to draw is often a better play. And, in many cases, you should consider the chance that a card may come off that might kill the future action.

There is much to take into account in these types of decisions. Even with the best of players, it’s a best guess estimate. But by understanding the concept and making the effort to think things through as best as possible both during and after the hand, your best guess estimates will become more precise.

So, consider the equity of your opponent’s hand against yours. Which hands do you want to keep in his calling range? How do you do that? Are there hands you want to exclude or charge a high price to draw? Often, those issues conflict, and your opponent’s range includes some of each. How do those scenarios weigh against each other?

Ask yourself those questions, weigh those situations and you’ll grow your game hugely! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke