WSOP Progress Report

As I write this, the midpoint of the 2016 World Series of Poker is rapidly approaching. (Perhaps this article should be titled Lack of Progress Report!) I have played about a dozen events and cashed three times. Although this sounds good, I am a net loser, as all my cashes were min-cashes (less than double the amount I invested to enter.) Considering I have cashed 56 times, my winnings of about $1.3 million are pretty pathetic. In recent years, I have unsuccessfully tried to achieve the goal of cashing less often, but making it much deeper. To illustrate how important it is to arrive at one of the top three spots, consider the Seniors event. There were approximately 4,500 entrants, of whom 675 finished in the money. I finished a little worse than 500th, and received $1,765 for my efforts. If I had played and min-cashed in 200 of these tournaments, I would have gotten back approximately the same amount that one second-place finish would have gotten, and significantly less than if I had one winner. Let that sink in: one top finish is worth much more than 200 min-cashes.

I have frequently ended day 1 with somewhat below-average chips. Obviously it is good to make day 2, but having a short stack makes it easier for people to put pressure on you and harder for you to put pressure on them. This year, I have tried to avoid nursing a short stack into the money and increasing my aggression, especially near the bubble. In my quest to accumulate chips, I have been KO’d fairly early in a few events. I have also had four big, late confrontations in situations where I could easily have folded. In two I was ahead (both times my opponent had J-8 suited and I had K-K once and A-K once), in one I was slightly behind and in one I was crushed (he had A-J offsuit and I had K-J offsuit.) I won none of these match-ups, and exited earlier than I would have otherwise, but I feel like I am making progress to become better at chip accumulation.

As a longtime, winning, tight-aggressive cash player, it is very hard to push myself into unnecessary confrontations for all or most of my stack. Even in cash games, there’s a case to be made that it is good to seek out high variance-zero expectation situations. High variance means increasing the number of big wins and losses each session. Zero expectation means you will break even over a lot of these situations. Conventional wisdom is that it is better to lower your volatility unless you can increase your expectation. There is no reason to take extra risks for no gain. Why might it be good to have more huge coin-flips? There are two main reasons. First when your opponent loses in one of these spots, he may go on tilt, and start throwing his money away. (Of course, this also requires that you are capable of maintaining your normal disciplined style after losing one of these hands. If you are the one who goes crazy, avoid those spots.) The second is that people will notice you are willing to gamble in some marginal spots. This makes them more willing to call you when they have a doubtful hand. You will make more money with your good hands.

Points to take away: Your target in every tournament is one of the top three spots. Be willing to gamble early. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking, first I’ll get into the money and then I’ll start gambling. Be more willing to get involved in high variance, low expectation situations, even in cash games. They might fall apart when they lose a coinflip and they will start to give you more action when you have them crushed. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.