Am I Making a Good Bet? Part IV

I hope you have been reading this series, and that you have started to ask this question is a variety of situations. It is a way of thinking that can be applied over and over, not only just in poker, but also in every form of gambling. In fact it can be applied not just in gambling, but also in a wide variety of real life situations.

If the answer is yes, then there is also the related question of ‘Am I making the best bet?’ I have suggested that one important method to find out if you’re making a good bet is to look at a bet’s expected value. Let us recap the idea of expected value (also know as EV or expectation.) EV is the average you will win or lose from taking a particular action. Another way to look at betting situations is to ask what has to happen for me to win and what has to happen for me to lose. The answer to this type of question is not always easy. Here is my update of a simple test question asked by psychologists:

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.

Arrange these three statements in probability order, from most likely to least probable?

1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and voted for Hillary Clinton.
3. Linda is a bank teller and voted for Hillary Clinton even though she initially supported Bernie Sanders.

People so frequently get this wrong, that psychologists have named the type of reasoning mistake they make. They call it the Conjunction Fallacy.

I hope you answered that one is more likely than two, and that two is more likely than three. Our brains did not evolve to approach questions like this analytically. Instead they approach them using a sort of emotional logic. We tend to read the description of Linda, and then think that, of course, she’d support Bernie, and then switch to Hillary.

An analytical approach would look at the group of bank clerks. Within that group is a smaller group that voted for Hillary. Within that group is an even smaller group, the group that first supported Bernie. In gambling, if multiple things must happen for you to win a bet, that bet is called a parlay. It is always harder (less likely) for a parlay to occur than any of the elements of that parlay to occur. If you bet the parlay that Alabama will win by more than seven and that the total score of the game will be over 41, you need three things to happen. Alabama must win. Alabama must win by more than seven. The total score must exceed 41 points. Clearly, a lot must happen for you to win.

You are probably thinking that you’re not sure if this applies to poker. Do parlay situations occur in poker games? Floating the flop is a common ploy that involves a parlay. What is floating the flop? You have called a preflop raise in position. The raiser continuation bets on the flop. You have missed the flop completely, but you float (call) his bet on the flop. You expect that if he has hit something, he will bet again on the turn. If he also missed, then he will check on the turn. When he checks the turn, you will bluff and win a reasonably-sized pot. Why is floating a parlay? A lot has to happen for you to win:

1. The preflop raiser must have made his continuation bet with air.
2. He must not improve on the turn.
3. He must check the turn (not decide to continue bluffing by betting the turn).
4. He must fold when you bet the turn (not call with a draw or bluff catcher).

This doesn’t mean you should never attempt a float. This betting ploy should be a part of your arsenal of plays. Just be aware that it is one of those betting maneuvers that has a lot of risk. You may not be making a good bet when you attempt it.

Continue to approach decisions by thinking about the equity involved. Choose actions that maximize your equity. Make good bets. In the next section of this series, I will examine parlays a little more, and also discuss being on the other side of a parlay. These are spots when you have more than one way to win. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow aka Zebra is a very successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 40 years. With two WSOP bracelets, over 50 cashes, and a few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his Vegas gaming time to poker, and can be found in cash games at Bellagio and at tournaments during the WSOP. When escaping from poker, he spends the spring and the fall in New York City where he hangs out at his bars: Doc Holliday’s, The Library and DBA.