Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- Utilizing the Wrong Premise

Most of my decisions are based on my hand reads. When you play small to medium limits, a strong exploitive style is the most lucrative. Many of your opponents will make significant conceptual thinking errors. Recognizing and knowing how to exploit them will create much of your edge. And while my reads are frequent in error, holistically that strategy provides me considerable extra edge. Whenever I am wrong, I review my thoughts and adjust my thinking about the player and/or my strategy.

In a $2-$5 no-limit game with unfamiliar opponents I picked up the 10 9 from UTG +3. With $600 behind, I limped behind a short-stacked, loose-passive opponent with about $70. Since he was call happy, and my hand was unlikely to win without improving, an aggressive preflop play was out of the question. The button called, the big blind (BB) knuckled, and we took the flop off four-handed. Around $20 in the pot.

The dealer flopped the K J 10, giving me bottom pair and a gutshot straight flush draw. The big blind and Mr. Loose-Passive-Limper checked to me and I fired $15 into the $20 pot. The button folded, the $700-deep Mr. BB called and Mr. Loose-Passive-Limper mucked. Down to heads-up, $50 in the pot.

The turn card was the 2, Mr. BB checked to me. I contemplated his range. He had seemed solid and mostly competent in the hour we’d played. I thought he would most likely raise-squeeze with A-Q or 10-10+, though Q-9 was a possibility. He might have a king, possibly one with a poor kicker since he was the big blind. He could have a straight draw with a queen, possibly with a pair. Maybe a club draw. But, since the board was draw-heavy, I thought he would bet any flopped two-pair.

Thinking that he might fold some weak kings in his range or that he may have a draw that my hand would have showdown equity against, I fired $30. He called.

The river came the Q, putting a four-straight on the board. Mr. BB checked again. I was pretty sure I had the best hand and pondered my best play. What would he call me with? I thought about Mr. BB’s calling range.

I didn’t think he’d call with one-pair. Since I thought he would bet two-pair or K-Q on the flop, assuming my reads were correct the only two-pair he could have was if he made queens-up on the river. That wasn’t much of his range and betting assumed the risk of being check-raised if Mr. BB held an ace or if he chose to check-raise bluff. While I didn’t think either of those were very likely, getting a call from a weaker holding didn’t seem very likely either. Additionally, if I bet and obtained a call, it would have been a small wager, but the downside could be either losing the pot or having to call a large wager. I knuckled behind him.

He turned over the K-10 offsuit, having flopped top and bottom pairs and check-called two streets. He threw the dealer a dollar as he turned his hand over, confident he held the winner. I turned my hand over, and he took his buck back.

I based my judgments on a false premise. If I had thought he could have flopped two pairs in his range, I would have made a small bet on the river. And I think he probably would have called.

The hand speaks to basing your judgments on accurate information. Reading hands will never be perfect, and will require some assumptions that will sometimes be erroneous. When I’m wrong, I reflect on the information I based my decisions on, scrutinize to see whether I could have obtained better information, or if I accurately deciphered the information.

In this case, I was satisfied that I had focused well on the game. Mr. BB had played few hands in the hour we played together, and none of them got turned over. The error I made was in theorizing his thinking. I assumed he would bet any two-pair on such a draw heavy board and therefore removed those hands from his calling range on the river.

I made an error, albeit a small one. As an exploitive style player, I make them all the time. But I’m right often too. And some of those times I’m right I make high-edge plays that more than make up for the edge I lose when I’m wrong.

That said, you need to have the focus and accurate to play in that manner. And while you’ll do your game a lot of good to develop that aspect of poker, you must also understand your limitations if you don’t. If you can’t make accurate reads and know how to exploit them, playing a simpler basic strategy will be healthier for your bankroll. If I’m in a situation I can’t decipher, I go back to basics.

And yeah, I made a small error on this hand, but that’s just part of the game. I don’t beat myself up for it. . I made the judgment based on the best available information, and that is all I can ever ask of myself. I just adjusted my thinking on that particular opponent and played the next hand as best I could. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke