Making An Incorrect Adjustment

I recently played a hand in $1,000 buy-in event that could have worked out much worse for me than it actually did. However, it worked for me for the wrong reason. With blinds at 200-400 with a 50 ante, with a 30,000 effective stack, I raised with A A from the lojack seat to 900. The cutoff and the big blind called. Both players were new to the table and I did not have much of a read on them. I viewed them to be middle aged amateurs, which made me think they would probably play straightforwardly.

The flop came K 10 4. The big blind checked and I decided to check behind.

This is an interesting situation because I got the vibe that neither of my opponents particularly loved their hands. While normally picking up the pot is not such a bad result when your opponents have some chance to improve to the nuts with a hand like Q-10 or J-9, if you are convinced everyone has nothing, checking behind is acceptable, especially if you think your opponents may be inclined to bluff on the turn or river.

Also, notice that any heart is perfectly fine for me because it gives me the nut flush draw, which can withstand significant pressure on the turn. If I did not have the A, I would have certainly bet about 1,800.

The cutoff also checked. The turn was the 9. The big blind bet 1,000 into the 3,350 pot. I called.

The problem with raising the turn is that, given my read, my opponent probably has, at best, a marginal made hand that cannot withstand pressure, meaning my raise will not extract much value. However, my opponent bet so small (30 percent of the pot) that he is likely giving himself roughly the proper pot odds to draw to a hand that beats me, like two pair. In general though, I think calling the turn is slightly better than raising because it will drastically under represent my hand while also minimizing my losses if my read is wrong and I happen to be beat.

The cutoff folded. The river was the 2. The big blind checked and I bet 2,800 into the 5,350 pot.

Once my opponent checks the river, value betting my premium overpair is mandatory. It is important that you choose a size that can realistically get called by the worse made hands that are in your opponent’s range. While I could make a large bet of perhaps 4,000 to try to make my opponent think I have lots of busted flush and straight draws in my range, I thought this opponent was on the weak side and would fold hands like J-10 and 9-8 to a sizeable bet. While he will call a larger bet than 2,800 with a king, given the way the hand played out, I thought kings were unlikely to be in his range.

My opponent called and meekly turned up 10 9 for middle two pair. He acted as if he was surprised to see that he had the best hand. While my read that my opponent thought he was weak was right (he was surprised his two pair won), his understanding of hand values was way off. He was afraid of the obvious straight and better two pairs that I could potentially (but am unlikely to) have.

While I think my play throughout this hand was somewhat standard, it is important that you constantly assess whether the adjustments you are making are right or wrong. Had I known my opponent had middle pair on the flop, I would certainly have bet. I would have lost a larger pot (because no one folds middle pair on the flop, and I don’t want him to), but I would have invested more money as the clear favorite. When you vary your play in an attempt to take advantage of your opponents’ tendencies, constantly assess your adjustments to confirm they are accomplishing what you want them to. If they are not, or if your adjustments are wrong a decent amount of the time, you are probably best off playing a fundamentally sound strategy instead of an exploitable one. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker. You can also sign up for his FREE Excelling at No Limit Hold’em webinars at HoldemBook.com/signup.