Real Poker: Getting Three Streets: It’s Situational, and Important!

In no-limit knowing which situations you can get three streets of value from is a huge edge. Too many players pass up this value by overly thinking in terms of pot control or by being excessively fearful of being beat. Missing a bet in no-limit can be a costly “opportunity loss cost,” particularly a river bet. Not exploiting +EV (expected value) opportunities lowers your yearly expectation the same way making a bad call does.

In a passive $2-$5, I’d been playing pretty aggressively. The cutoff had posted a make-up blind and an ABC-passive opponent whom I’d previously pushed out of a couple of pots, open-raised for $20. In every earlier instance he had open-raised for $15. Whenever an opponent does something differently, I always ask myself, “Why?” In this case, I thought he either raised larger because of the make-up blind, or he had a hand that was vulnerable and wanted to protect it, maybe a combination of both.

I peered down to the 10 10. Generally, it’s a situationally-dependent borderline hand to value three-bet or flat. Seeing as I reasoned my opponent was likely to have a vulnerable hand, I chose to three-bet, the field folded, and Mr. ABC called, $134 in the pot, I rasied to $60. When he called I read his preflop range as being a good, but not great holding.

The flop came clean, the 8 5 2, Mr. ABC checked to me, and I bet $65. I thought his calling range would be any medium pair, sixes through queens, possibly A-K. I discounted the sixes and queens thinking he may have played them differently both pre- and post-flop. I wagered a smallish bet-size to increase the propensity for the medium pairs, which I dominated, to remain in his calling range. He called.

The 8 turned, and I bet $95 into a $260 pot, once again on the smallish side, but a sizing I thought he would call with his medium pairs. He hesitantly flatted me one more time, $450 in the pot.

The river came the J. He checked to me. I knuckled behind him and he showed me two nines, I took the pot. As I always do, I reflected on my play of the hand. In hindsight, I thought my check on the river was poor. My opponent’s range was capped, and a river value bet was in order.

His genuine hesitancy on calling the turn further discounted Q-Q. J-J became more unlikely when the jack rivered and he checked to me, and there was only one combination of 8-8. I hadn’t seen a check-raise from him yet, and he didn’t strike me as the sort to check-raise often. My previous aggression in the game, particularly the fact he’d folded a couple of holdings to me increased the odds of Mr. ABC calling a river bet with a pair smaller than tens.

With limited holdings that beat me, the decision on whether to bet came down to if he would call with more hands I beat than hands that beat me, or check-raise since I wasn’t calling a check-raise. There were six possible combinations each of 6-6, 7-7, 9-9, 18 total. I heavily discounted his Q-Q, J-J and 8-8 holdings because of the manner in which he played. He may have A-5 suited, A-8 suited, 8-7 suited or 8-9 suited but would they be in his preflop calling range and would he have played them in this manner? I doubted it! All that said, there was way more hands this particular player in this particular situation would call with that I beat than that beat me. And I’m including any check raise on his part.

A thin smallish river value-bet was in order, maybe in the one-third pot range. He wasn’t prone to check-raise and was likely to view me suspiciously and call with a marginal hand. Even if he only called one-half the time with a pair, my bet would still have +EV value.

I whiffed the bet, but I learned from my mistake. It was a focus error. In most situations, against most opponents, I would check this hand on the river, and my instincts made that decision. My mistake was that I didn’t take the time to think things through. If I had, I would have recognized that this specific situation with this particular opponent was different from most standard situations and adjusted my strategy.

Next time, I’m going to think things through! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke. Please see ad below!