Flop Evaluation: Part III

Before I get into the meat of today’s column, I want to congratulate fellow Card Player columnist Doug Polk for his crushing victory in the recent High Roller For One Drop tournament. He has a great personality and his website, Upswing Poker, has great training materials, some of which are free.

I also want to recommend the website of another columnist, Jonathan Little. These guys are the real deal. They are winners at both high-stakes cash games and tournaments, and they produce quality material. Lastly check out live streaming of tournaments on PokerGo. They have a variety of top commentators as regulars or guests, including Nick Schulman, Brian Rast, Phil Hellmuth among others.

I am a big believer in the benefits of repetition when learning. So in this of my series of articles on evaluating the flop, I will again review the most important flop attributes. Remember that modern flop strategy, especially game theory optimal or mathematical play focuses on ranges. You must be aware of how your range and your opponent’s range interact with each type of flop.

Flop Attributes

Pairs: About 83 percent of the time the flop will not contain a pair. 17 percent of the time it will contain a pair or on rare occasions trips (less than one-fourth of 1 percent.)

Suits: A flop may consist of three suits (rainbow), two suits (thus there is a flush draw possible) or one suit (a flush is already possible.) The flop will contain two of a suit slightly more than half the time, about 55 percent. Next most common are the rainbow flops (three suits), which occur about 40 percent of the time. The remaining 5 percent of the time the flop comes out with three cards of the same suit.

Connection: Connection refers to straight potential. It is more difficult to describe since there are several flavors. There are flops that can already make a straight. These consist of three connected cards – 10-9-8, 10-9-7, or 10-9-6. There are flops that may make a straight on the next card (straight draws) – 10-9-2, 10-8-2, or 10-7-2. There are flops that don’t appear to be connected, but still have turn cards that produce straights. For example, A-10-6 seems disconnected, yet any K, Q, J, 9, 8, or 7 makes a straight possible on the turn. And lastly, there are four flops that don’t allow a straight to be made on the turn – K-8-3, K-8-2, K-7-2, and Q-7-2.

Rank: Ranks form a continuum from Ace down to deuce. For simplicity, think of three ranks high (Ace, King, Queen or Jack,) middle (Ten, Nine, Eight, Seven, or Six) and low (Five, Four, Three, or Two).

Variability is really a combination of the other attributes, and reflects how likely things are to change.

In the previous column I focused on rank, and how the rank of the flop influence your strategy. In this column, I’m going to discuss Variability. Variability is a hard attribute to define. The simplest thing is to think of it as a measure of how likely things are to change.

What do I mean by change? Change refers to the possibility that the best hand on the flop is no longer the best hand on the turn or the river. Let’s begin by looking at top set on a dry board. You have K-K and the flop is K-7-2 rainbow. You have the current nuts. Your top set is very stable. Some turn cards will put a straight or flush draw on board, but you will still have the best hand. The only turn cards that could conceivably give your opponent a better hand are an ace in the unlikely case they had pocket aces or the board pairing to make their flopped low set into quads.

Contrast this with the situation where you have 9-9 and the board is 9 8 4. Your top set is a lot less secure than the one in the previous paragraph. Now any spade may make someone a flush. Any Q, J, 10, 7, 6, or 5 may make someone a straight. There are also a lot more overcards that could hit to give someone a higher set. This is a board with high variability.

Let’s look at a top two pair example. If you have A-K on a stable board of A-K-7 rainbow, there is not too much to worry about. If you have 8-7 on a variable board of 8 7 3, almost everything can make someone a flush, a straight or a higher two pair.

What does variability imply strategically? If the board is stable, and you have a good hand, position and giving free cards don’t matter too much. Be tricky, try to get money into to pot anyway you can. Smaller bets make sense. But if you have a good hand with a variable board, the reverse is true. Bet larger, good position means more, and avoid giving free cards. On stable board, bluffs and semi-bluffs won’t work well. On variable boards, they are a great threat since it is hard to know which cards help. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow aka Zebra is a very successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 40 years. With two WSOP bracelets, over 50 cashes, and a few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his Vegas gaming time to poker, and can be found in cash games at Bellagio and at tournaments during the WSOP. When escaping from poker, he spends the spring and the fall in New York City where he hangs out at his bars: Doc Holliday’s, The Library and DBA.