A Tough First Hand On Day 3 In The $1,500 Shootout

I was fortunate enough to make day 3 of the $1,500 World Series of Poker no-limit hold’em shootout event. While the first few days were essentially winner-take-all, 10-player single table tournaments, day 3 functioned exactly like the final stage of a normal tournament with 12 players remaining. There were slightly more than 1,000 players in the tournament, which is why there were 12 players remaining on day 3.

On the first hand of the day, with blinds at 3,000-6,000 with a 1,000 ante, I raised to 17,000 out of my 640,000 stack from the cutoff seat with 7 6. A young German player whom I was unfamiliar with, but had reason to believe was a bit too loose and aggressive, three-bet to 57,000 from the big blind. I decided to call.

I think both calling and folding are fine options, and if I think my opponent will fold to a four-bet too often, that play becomes acceptable as well. Really, all options are reasonable. In general, I am happy to see flops in position with a wide range of premium hands and hands with good implied odds. Playing in this manner will make you quite difficult to play against because your opponent will have a tough time determining your range.

The flop came 9 5 3, giving me a double-gutshot straight draw. My opponent bet 48,000 into the 126,000 pot and I called.

This is an excellent spot to call with most of my range. I want to call with my sets because my opponent is almost certainly drawing thin. I want to call with my marginal made hands like 10-10 and 10-9 because if I raise and get additional action, I will usually be in bad shape. I want to call with my draws because if I raise and my opponent reraises, I have to fold, and if he calls, I have no way of knowing if I should barrel off if I fail to improve. If I faced a larger flop bet, raising with my premium made hands and draws gains merit because I pick up a larger amount of chips when my opponent folds.

If I want to raise with my premium made hands and draws, I have to be careful to not raise with too many draws because if I raised with all of them, I would have way too many in my range. This should lead me to raise with my worst draws, which I happen to have with 7 6. So, raising with the intention of folding if pushed on has some merit.

The turn was the Q. My opponent bet 104,000 into the 222,000 pot and I called.

At this point, it is clear that my opponent is setting up the option for a sizable river bet. Because of this, I want to call with my draws to hopefully realize large implied odds on the river. I could push all-in on the turn, but that doesn’t make sense with my premium made hands because, as on the flop, my opponent is likely drawing thin. I am getting roughly the right pot odds to call with my draws, making calling the best play. That said, if I thought I could make my opponent fold a large portion of the time, perhaps because he is 3-betting with too many hands before the flop, raising becomes vastly superior to calling.

The river was the 7, giving me a marginal pair. My opponent pushed all-in for 431,000 into the 430,000 pot.

This is where things get dicey. I lose to all premium made hands and I beat most bluffs (missed draws). I have to figure out how often my opponent is bluffing and see if I am getting the correct pot odds to call. In this situation, my opponent is pushing for the size of the pot, so I need to win 33 percent of the time to justify calling (431,000/(431,000 + 431,000 + 430,000) = 33 percent).

I imagine my opponent would bet all straights, sets, two pairs, overpairs, A-Q, K-Q, and perhaps Q-J in this manner for value. This is 65 combinations of hands. Of course, he may or may not play the top pairs in this manner.

The tricky part is figuring out how often my opponent is bluffing because his range varies wildly depending on his preflop strategy. If he is three-betting a linear range of mostly high card hands, he should have relatively few bluffs (unless he is using hands like A-J and A-10 as bluffs). If he is three-betting a polarized range of premium hands and junky drawing hands (which I suspect is the case), he can have many missed draws, such as A 2, K 8, and 8 4. To make this situation even more difficult, it is tough to know how often he is three-betting with the junky hands. He may only three-bet hands like 8 4 25 percent of the time whereas he may three-bet Q-Q 100 percent of the time. If he is bluffing with almost all reasonable bluffing candidates, he has 38 bluffing combinations.

So, if he is value betting all reasonable hands while also bluffing with all reasonable hands, he will have 63 percent value bets and 37 percent bluffs. This means that when I call with my marginal pair, I will win 37 percent of the time. Since the pot odds dictate that I need to win 33 percent of the time to justify calling, I should call. Given this hand is from a tournament, I need to call off a bit tighter due to the payout implications, but even then, calling is likely acceptable in this situation.

However, my opponent is almost certainly not playing his range in this exact manner. For instance, he may check K-Q and Q-J on the turn, or bet the turn and then check the river (to induce bluffs from all my missed draws). If he doesn’t have K-Q and Q-J in his range, he has only 41 premium made hands, meaning he has 52 percent value hands and 48 percent bluffs, allowing me to easily call. He may also be three-betting with an even wider range, meaning he will have more bluffs. He may also turn some hands I did not select into bluffs, such as 6-6 and 7-6 suited. Alternatively, he may not three-bet K-6 suited, 10-6 suited, 8-5 suited, 8-4 suited 5-4 suited, and 4-3 suited before the flop. If that is the case, his bluffing range is only 31 percent, allowing me to easily fold.

All of this said, some players will only play their value bets or bluffs in this manner. The problem is you have no way of knowing if that is the case with your specific opponent. If I had to speculate, most young Germans will have too many bluffs in this spot, but I have no way of knowing for sure and typically do not think this vague read justifies an ambitious call.

It is also important to assess your own range to ensure you are not folding too often. In this spot, if I call with all straights, sets, two pairs, and most top pairs, (meaning I don’t raise these hands on the previous betting rounds) I will be calling often enough to not allow my opponent to blindly profit by bluffing with any two cards.

As you can see, this is a close spot. Given a few of the 12 players remaining were relatively inexperienced and I would still have 72 big blinds if I folded, I think folding is the best play. After I folded, I was quite unhappy with myself. My subconscious was screaming at me to call, but I didn’t. When that happens, it is important to silence that inner voice and continue playing your best poker.

I eventually busted in ninth place for $21,360 when I lost a big pot with A-A vs K-K and then a small all-in with Q-Q against A-8. Sometimes it just isn’t your day. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker. You can also sign up for his FREE Excelling at No Limit Hold’em webinars at HoldemBook.com/signup.