Flop Evaluation: Part Six

This is the last in my series of articles on evaluating the flop. Modern flop play revolves around focusing on ranges. You decide if the flop hits your range or your opponents range, and act accordingly. First a quick review of what the attributes are:

Pairs: About 83 percent of the time the flop will not contain a pair. 17 percent of the time it will contain a pair or on rare occasions trips (less than one-fourth of 1 percent.)

Suits: A flop may contain three suits (rainbow), two suits (thus there is a flush draw possible) or one suit (a flush is already possible.) The flop will contain two of a suit slightly more than half the time, about 55 percent. Next most common are the rainbow flops (three suits), which occur about 40 percent of the time. The remaining five percent of the time the flop comes out with three cards of the same suit.

Connection: Connection refers to straight potential. It is more difficult to describe since there are several flavors. There are flops that can already make a straight. These consist of three connected cards – 10-9-8, 10-9-7, or 10-9-6. There are flops that may make a straight on the next card (straight draws) – 10-9-2, 10-8-2, or 10-7-2. There are flops that don’t appear to be connected, but still have turn cards that produce straights. For example, A-10-6 seems disconnected, yet any K, Q, J, 9, 8, or 7 makes a straight possible on the turn. And lastly, there are four flops that don’t allow a straight to be made on the turn – K-8-3, K-8-2, K-7-2, and Q-7-2.

Rank: Ranks form a continuum from ace down to deuce. For simplicity, think of three ranks: high (ace, king, queen or jack,) middle (ten, nine, eight, seven, or six) and low (five, four, three, or two).

Variability: Variability is really a combination of the other attributes, and reflects how likely things are to change.

Pairs are the only attribute I haven’t covered, and they are my topic for today. In a live, cash game a player in early position raises. You three-bet with a pair of kings, and he calls. First, let’s look at a relatively good flop: Q 7 2. You are in a great spot. You are a favorite against any logical hand they could hold except a set. If they happen to have a queen, especially A-Q or K-Q, you should win a nice pot. Now suppose instead that the flop was Q 7 7. You are still in a great spot. Now there is more danger. You have to worry about any hand with a seven. Not likely, but a lot more possible than the set on the first flop.

Notice that this is a very polarized situation. Most of the time you are way ahead or way behind. There is very low variability on paired boards. Only a flush draw gives your opponent a fair number of outs when he is behind. He checks, you bet, and he raises. Now what? You are ahead most of the time, so you can’t just routinely fold assuming he has a seven. On the other hand, you don’t want to call off your whole stack with two outs when he does. These are situations where experienced live players have a huge advantage. There is nothing mathematical to tell you want to do. You have to base your action on ‘table feel’ – picking up a tell or figuring some way to read your opponent.

The same applies to being the player facing the flop bet from a pre-flop raiser or three-bettor. If you check-raise, will how often will he call? Will he call only with a big pair or will he stay for the turn with a hand like A K. As an old time cash game player, I feel that I get this type of decision right more often than many young players. My instincts also tend to be reasonably accurate in tournaments. Many young guns, with tons of internet experience, will make errors that I might avoid. In tournaments, where stacks sizes are relative short, they will get all-in with their big pairs. With a short stack of 50 or so big blinds, their frequent wins will more than offset their occasional losses. (And the fact that they know short stack shoving ranges a lot better than I do, will give them an advantage.) In a cash game, with a huge stack of 200 or more big blinds, calling too often can be a disaster. This is why aces have a reputation as a hand that wins small pots and loses big ones.

There is one more point to be made about paired flops. As with all flops, you have to estimate how likely the flop is to hit your opponent’s range and how likely he thinks it is that it hit yours. In general higher pairs, like all high ranking cards favor players with tighter ranges. An under the gun raiser could easily hit a flop like Q-Q-7, and might hit a flop like 10-10-7, but probably won’t hit a flop like 6-6-2 or 6-2-2.♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow aka Zebra is a very successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 40 years. With two WSOP bracelets, over 50 cashes, and a few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his Vegas gaming time to poker, and can be found in cash games at Bellagio and at tournaments during the WSOP. When escaping from poker, he spends the spring and the fall in New York City where he hangs out at his bars: Doc Holliday’s, The Library and DBA.