Real Poker — Predictability, Image and Gear Changing

Predictability in poker is a killer. Once your opponents learn how to effectively read your play, they’ll adjust much more efficiently, significantly reducing your edge. Often players are totally unaware they possess this leak, and they’ll blow through their bankroll blaming it all on bad fortune.
To thwart this, you need to vary your play against those good hand readers. Sometimes this is done by play variations, other times by image manipulation. But you should do this strategically optimally; otherwise you’ll needlessly cost yourself edge.
Setting an image congruent with the optimum strategy for the current game has great value, at least until it’s effectively read. When starting a game, if you’re looking to enhance your opponents’ errors by making them call more, create a fast image early in the session. Play some fast and loose marginal hands/situations to create the appearance that you’re there to gamble. If you create that image most opponents will call more often. You can widen your value betting range and likely your bet sizing. That said, your bluffs and semi-bluffs will lose some value, and you’ll need to narrow your bluffing and semi-bluffing ranges.
Conversely, if you’re looking to obtain +EV (expected value) by making your opponents fold too much, create a tight, timid, unimaginative image. Don’t attack marginal bluffing and semi-bluffing situations. Your snugger image will strengthen your bluffs and semi-bluffs later. If you stay patient and pick your most valuable spots, you’ll increase your edge in large pot bluffing situations, and that will have high value.
That said, it accomplishes nothing to deceive opponents who are unaware or won’t adjust their play. Against these opponents play a continuous exploitative strategy. If they do catch on, then it’s time to mix it up, but not until then.
Many “authorities” recommend using bizarre –EV deceptive plays, utilizing VERY non-standard plays that generate a mystifying impression, employed to generate action. They can be effective against gullible opponents when you’re an unfamiliar entity, particularly at the start of a session, but they have limited value against experienced players that see through the ploy. Additionally, such plays often sacrifice too much EV.
A better way to vary your play is through +EV gear changes. Carefully pick situations in which you can make a non-standard, image-creating play, but still maintain an edge. You’ll confuse your opponents and reduce your predictability without sacrificing any EV. However, you need to change gears only when the situation is right, otherwise, you’ll needlessly cost yourself EV.
Suddenly shifting from a tight-passive mode to a loose-aggressive mode increases your fold-equity value. And shifting from a loose-aggressive mode to tight-passive mode decreases your opponents’ calling equity, something they will be unaware of. It can also increase the equity of your bet-inducing plays since your opponents will tend to devalue your checking range and bet a wider range. With every opponent and situation, think about what image they currently have of you and how it will affect their play in this specific situation. Then think about how you can best exploit it!
All that said, generally it’s more optimum to selectively change your style in specific situations than to make a dramatic shift. Suddenly bluffing an opponent who thinks you never bluff has high fold equity. And unless you show your hand, they’ll never know what hit them, and you can do it again. So, don’t show your hand. Widely value betting wide-range calling opponents over and over has huge value. By staying patient and controlling your image that you initially set because it is the best value in the current game you’ll obtain your highest EV.
Eventually, some will adjust, some won’t. And once they adjust you must readjust your strategies to them. But don’t adjust your strategies because you think they’re going to adjust, force them to adjust first. Only after you notice they have done it should you adjust. You’ll leave them dazed, confused, and making numerous read errors.
It’s similar to that old cliché, but you’re dazzling them with both brilliance and BS! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke. Please see ad below!