Choosing the Right Bet Size: Four Guidelines

Different situations demand different bet sizes. In some scenarios betting, say, 25 percent pot is best. In others an overbet of 2x the pot is appropriate. Today we’ll cover four guidelines for four particular bet sizes: when to use them and why.

Go Smaller on Dry, Static Boards (25–35 percent pot)

In general, a primary reason to bet is to deny our opponents equity. On dry boards, though, this becomes far less important, as hands that are behind our value betting range won’t have much equity.

This situation is commonly referred to as being “way ahead or way behind.”

Another reason to size down on dry boards is that calling ranges are often inelastic. This means, given the board texture, our opponent will react similarly to both a small and large bet.

For example, on a board like A 7 2, a value betting range that contains Ax hands and better is well ahead of hands such as backdoor draws and weak pairs. Consequently, we can expect our opponents to fold these weaker hands to any bet, and so a small bet will do the trick.

Smaller bet sizes also work well for exploiting players who fold too often. Against these opponents we can risk less while still achieving a similar amount of fold equity.

Use a Larger Size on Wet, Dynamic Boards (60–85 percent pot)

On wet boards, our value betting range is liable to being outdrawn on later streets. Equity denial thus becomes very important, which requires sizing up.

There are two perks to using a larger bet size: (1) we can extract as much value as possible with our strong hands, and (2) we generate more fold equity with our bluffs.
Moreover, on wet flops, many turn and river cards will hurt our ability to get value. For example, if we have 5 5 on 7 6 5, any four, eight or club on the turn will kill the action, and prevent us from getting value from worse hands. In this situation and ones like it, we should get as many chips in the middle while the board allows us to do so—bet bigger on the flop.

Here are some similar spots to use a larger bet size:

9♠ 10♠ on 10♦ 9♦ 7♣
K♦ Q♦ on K♠ 10♠ 9♦
6♥ 7♥ on 10♣ 5♥ 4♥

Overbet With a Range/Nut Advantage (150–200 percent pot)

Overbetting allows you to get the absolute maximum with your value hands while pushing as much fold equity as possible with your bluffs. A well timed overbet will put your opponent in a really tough spot.

Overbets work well on boards that are favorable for our range—where we can have a number of nutted hands but our opponent cannot, based on how the action has played out.

As for selecting overbet bluffs in these scenarios, hands that block the nutted combos from our opponent’s range work best. An obvious example is bluffing with the nut flush blocker on flush boards (e.g., with A 9 on Q 7 2 4 10), where we can be confident our opponent cannot have the nut flush while representing that we might have it ourselves.

In general, overbets are most commonly used on the river, due to their polarizing effect. An overbet effectively says that we either have a strong made hand or a bluff with no chance of winning at showdown.

Stack-to-Pot Ratio Should Influence Bet Sizing

I should mention that it’s crucial to consider your stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) at all times when making a bet. This applies not just for the present street, but also for later streets. SPR is crucial for planning how a hand will go.

Generally, we should usually choose a bet size that gets value, pushes fold equity, and denies equity.

A common mistake is to size bets on earlier streets that prematurely commits one to the pot, and/or leaves an awkward amount behind on later streets to bluff with. Consider an example:

Hero is dealt K K in the CO.

UTG folds. MP raises to 3bb. Hero raises to 10bb. BTN folds. SB folds. BB calls. MP calls.

Flop (30.5bb): 9 7 2

BB checks. MP checks. How much should Hero bet?

Assuming all players in this hand begin with 100bb, we should be getting all the money in across two streets, here. This means betting a size on the flop that leaves us with, preferably, a near pot-sized bet on the turn, but definitely no less than a half-pot sized bet.

So, working backwards, our bet size on the flop should be about 20bb — 66 percent of the pot. This will allow us to comfortably shove our remaining 70bb stack on the turn.
Summary

I’ve only given bet-sizing a brief treatment, here. But these four guidelines should help you determine an appropriate size in most situations. To reiterate: make small bets on dry boards, large bets on wet/dynamic ones, and over-bet with a range/nut advantage. ♠

George Mathias is a cash game specialist who rose through the ranks playing the Zoom games on PokerStars. Now a regular at the live tables, he frequently contributes to the training site www.upswingpoker.com – you can view all his posts at https://www.upswingpoker.com/author/georgemup/.