Maximizing Your Poker Studies

An acquaintance from the Bellagio $5-$10 cash game recently told me that he’d been doing a lot of work on determining the correct starting requirements by position. His research had proved that it was clearly right to open-raise from the button with 6-5 suited, but not with 5-4 suited. He had evidence beyond his studies that this was true. In the week since he learned this, his results had improved by several big blinds per hour. To me this was a classic case of devoting effort to studying the wrong things and coming to questionable conclusions.

My opinion is that these hands are both marginal first-in raises from the button. What is a marginal raise? To find out let’s compare it to a great raise, pocket aces. You could open-shove with aces, and usually win the $15 in blinds, and perhaps occasionally get a call from a hand like K-K. Making a normal raise, and playing well with position should increase your average earnings from just over 15 to somewhere closer to $50 (depending on stack size and opponent’s ability.) My guess would be that playing a marginal hand when it is right might be worth a few pennies and when it is wrong would cost a few cents. When a decision is close, and will gain or lose very little equity on average, it is marginal. This also implies that a dogmatic rule for what to do in this type of situation can’t be worked out.

Your decision should be based more on your opponents than on your exact hole cards. You will usually win about 40 percent of the time you are called, if there is no more betting. So this is not a value raise. It is a semi-bluff raise. You are hoping they fold, either now, to a continuation bet, or even to barreling. You’re also hoping that they will lose more than they should when you do make some unexpected monster. Tend to raise if your opponents seldom three-bet from the blinds, fold too much, and play badly after the flop when they do call. Also raise more often if you have a tight image or haven’t tried to steal the blinds on some previous occasions. Obviously, fold these marginal holding to blinds that frequently three-bet, seldom fold, and play well later in the hand. Also fold if you have a wild image or have been frequently raising from the button.

I have no idea what process or software this guy used to reach his conclusions. But I am reasonably certain he would have been better served to take one of these hands, and think about how it should be played after the flop. Your opponent will probably expect your range to include high cards and high pairs, so high card, dry boards will be good bluffing opportunities. A K 8 is a typical bluffing opportunity. Flops that connect with your hand, making pairs, draws or combinations can be played for value or as semi-bluffs. If you have 6 5, a board like 6 4 2, which gives you top pair, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw, are great value bets. Middle range wet boards that miss your suit, should be checked and folded to future bets. For example, a flop of J 10 7 would be an easy check and fold with 6 5. Of course, if you had a good read that your opponent was folding, then you would fire your continuation bet.

I suggest you spend your study time analyzing general situations. If you want to find situations to analyze, there are a lot of sources for interesting hands. Magazines, books, and websites provide a lot of content. Some of this is free, and most of the rest is reasonably priced. If you play live $1-$2, the buy-ins often range from $100 to $300. Spending $100 on some educational material is a fraction of what you might win or lose in a session. Review the situations that are discussed. Try to follow the discussion, and decide for yourself how accurate its conclusions are. When you feel comfortable making a certain play in a specific situation, do it. Then see what happened in the real world. One or two instances are not a large enough sample to really know how effective something is. Likewise the fact that the guy whose statement triggered this article had results that improved for a week proves nothing. But small samples of specific actions are enough to give you an idea of whether a strategy is creating problems for your opponents. Remember, if you don’t give them problems, they can’t make mistakes. Your profits come from their mistakes. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow aka Zebra is a very successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 40 years. With two WSOP bracelets, over 50 cashes, and a few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his Vegas gaming time to poker, and can be found in cash games at Bellagio and at tournaments during the WSOP. When escaping from poker, he spends the spring and the fall in New York City where he hangs out at his bars: Doc Holliday’s, The Library and DBA.