Making Straights in Short-Deck

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Connected cards with the ability to make many straights have a tremendous amount of value in Triton Poker since they still beat trips and are much easier to make than in full-deck poker. J-10 is the premium connector since it makes the most straights and every single one of them is the nuts.

Before we analyze the strength of various connected hands, however, we must first discuss some very important principles related to recognizing straights and straight draws in Short Deck.

Recognizing Straights and Open Ended Straight Draws (OESD)

Suppose you hold 9-8 and the flop is A-7-6. You have just flopped the nut straight; remember aces are fives! Until it is fully ingrained in your mind it is imperative to mentally say to yourself, “There’s a five,” whenever you see an ace. You don’t want to miss the fact that you have the nuts; however, a cool Short Deck fact here is that the nut straight is a slight underdog to a set of aces. But of course, you are not always up against a set.

Now suppose that the flop is A-J-7. If you missed the fact that you have an open-ended straight here you may have forgotten that aces are fives and/or may not be skilled in recognizing what is called a “double-belly buster” draw. Either a six or a ten will make you a nut straight, and in the case of a six a potentially quite sneaky one that may catch your opponent completely by surprise.

The term “double-belly buster” was first coined by Doyle Brunson in his original ground breaking book SuperSystem. While it is important to recognize these hidden draws in full-deck it is much more crucial to recognize them in this game due to the fact that you will flop many more of them and the draw is more powerful. In the book he presents lists of the various hands with their corresponding “double-belly buster” draws. I would not recommend trying to memorize this list, rather I would advise to train yourself to examine each flop and check to see if you have one.

For example, when you hold the 9-8 and the flop of A-J-7 comes down you should say to yourself, “Aces are fives. Do I have a gut-shot draw between a five and a seven? Yes, it is a six and it makes the nuts. Do I have gut-shot draw between the seven and a jack? Yes, it is a ten and it also makes the nuts.” In other words, don’t try and memorize a list, rather, set up a procedure in your mind that makes sure you don’t miss these types of draws. I’m sure I’ve missed some of them over the years in full-deck although now after playing Short Deck I will probably miss far less.

Comparing the Connected Hands

The chart below provides information on how often the various connectors either make straights or an OESD:

Straight OESD Total
KQ 2.1% 5.6% 7.7%
KJ 2.1% 7.8% 9.9%
KT 2.1% 8.8% 11.0%
QJ 3.2% 12.3% 15.5%
QT 3.2% 14.4% 17.6%
Q9 2.1% 8.8% 11.0%
JT 4.3% 19.0% 23.3%
J9 3.2% 13.4% 16.6%
J8 2.1% 8.8% 11.0%
T9 4.3% 19.0% 23.3%
T8 3.2% 14.4% 17.6%
T7 2.1% 8.8% 11.0%
98 4.3% 19.0% 23.3%
97 3.2% 14.4% 17.6%
96 2.1% 6.7% 8.8%
87 3.2% 12.3% 15.5%
86 2.1% 6.7% 8.8%
76 2.1% 5.6% 7.7%

Notice that the J-10 and the 10-9 hands both have a 23.3 percent chance of either flopping a straight or a powerful OESD. However, that does not mean that both hands are of equal value. Every straight that the J-10 makes is the stone-cold nuts while this is not the case for 10-9.

The 10-9 flops a straight when the board comes down as K-Q-J, Q-J-8, J-8-7, and 8-7-6. K-Q-J does not make the nuts, however, while the other three boards do. Thus 10-9 will have the nuts 75 percent of the time when it flops a straight.

The 10-9 will flop an eight-out straight draw on the various boards shown below where X is a board card that does not make a straight:

Q86 Double Belly Buster; Jack or Seven Makes Nuts
KJ7 Double Belly Buster; Queen is Non Nut Straight;
Eight Makes Nuts
QJX King is Non Nut Straight; Nine Makes Nuts
87X Jack or Six Makes Nuts
J8X Queen or Seven Makes Nuts

With these draws, approximately 77 percent of the straight completing turns will result in a nut straight.

When analyzing the various connectors it is imperative to take into account the Nut Percentage of the resulting made straights and draws. The chart below takes “nuttiness” into account. The Total column is derived as (Straight %) * (Nut %) + (OESD %)* (Nut %).

Straight Nut % OESD Nut % Total
KQ 2.1% 100.0% 5.6% 100.0% 7.7%
KJ 2.1% 100.0% 7.8% 79.0% 8.3%
KT 2.1% 100.0% 8.8% 69.0% 8.2%
QJ 3.2% 100.0% 12.3% 100.0% 15.5%
QT 3.2% 100.0% 14.4% 85.0% 15.4%
Q9 2.1% 50.0% 8.8% 44.0% 4.9%
JT 4.3% 100.0% 19.0% 100.0% 23.3%
J9 3.2% 66.7% 13.4% 71.0% 11.6%
J8 2.1% 50.0% 8.8% 38.0% 4.4%
T9 4.3% 75.0% 19.0% 77.0% 17.8%
T8 3.2% 66.7% 14.4% 62.0% 11.1%
T7 2.1% 50.0% 8.8% 31.0% 3.8%
98 4.3% 75.0% 19.0% 82.0% 18.8%
97 3.2% 66.7% 14.4% 62.0% 11.1%
96 2.1% 50.0% 6.7% 42.0% 3.9%
87 3.2% 67.0% 12.3% 54.0% 8.8%
86 2.1% 50.0% 6.7% 42.0% 3.9%
76 2.1% 50.0% 5.6% 50.0% 3.9%

This creates separation between J-10 and 10-9; however we probably need to go further in our analysis in a few ways. There is no place ticket in poker; in fact the second best hand is always lower therefore it makes sense to further discount the value of non-nut straights and draws.

Let’s propose what is admittedly an arbitrary further adjustment to the Nut Percentage of by taking the Nut Percentage to the 1.5 power. For example, in the case of 10-9, the 75 percent and 77 percent will become 65 percent (75%^1.5) and 67.6% (77%^1.5) respectively.

In addition, a made straight is worth more than an OESD simply because a bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush. Therefore, it seems reasonable to make a 50 percent adjustment to the straight draws. Why 50 percent? Once again this is somewhat arbitrary; however, an eight-out draw has approximately a 45.6 percent of completing over the course of two draws. In addition, one can easily have more than 50 percent equity in the pot due to having a dominated draw against your opponent and/or having possible pair outs.

Making these adjustments would result in the final rankings sorted by descending overall power rating:

Adjusted Adjusted OESD Power
Straight Nut % OESD Nut % Adjustment Total Rating
JT 4.3% 100.0% 19.0% 100.0% 50.0% 13.8% 100
98 4.3% 65.0% 19.0% 74.3% 50.0% 9.8% 71
QJ 3.2% 100.0% 12.3% 100.0% 50.0% 9.4% 68
T9 4.3% 65.0% 19.0% 67.6% 50.0% 9.2% 67
QT 3.2% 100.0% 14.4% 78.4% 50.0% 8.8% 64
J9 3.2% 54.5% 13.4% 59.8% 50.0% 5.8% 42
T8 3.2% 54.5% 14.4% 48.8% 50.0% 5.3% 38
97 3.2% 54.5% 14.4% 48.8% 50.0% 5.3% 38
KQ 2.1% 100.0% 5.6% 100.0% 50.0% 4.9% 36
KJ 2.1% 100.0% 7.8% 70.2% 50.0% 4.9% 35
KT 2.1% 100.0% 8.8% 57.3% 50.0% 4.7% 34
87 3.2% 54.8% 12.3% 39.7% 50.0% 4.2% 30
Q9 2.1% 35.4% 8.8% 29.2% 50.0% 2.0% 15
J8 2.1% 35.4% 8.8% 23.4% 50.0% 1.8% 13
76 2.1% 35.4% 5.6% 35.4% 50.0% 1.7% 13
96 2.1% 35.4% 6.7% 27.2% 50.0% 1.7% 12
86 2.1% 35.4% 6.7% 27.2% 50.0% 1.7% 12
T7 2.1% 35.4% 8.8% 17.3% 50.0% 1.5% 11

While these adjustments are of a somewhat subjective nature, the percentage of time you will make nut straights versus non-nut straights should be reflected somehow when assessing the strength of any particular hand. The power ratings are all based relative to the premium connector starter, J-10. Some of the takeaways here would be as follows:

Q-J is quite a good hand in that the straights it makes will also always make the nuts and also has the added bonus of dominating other premium connectors such as Q-10 and J-10 when it pairs or makes trips.

The low ranking of Q-9 is quite surprising considering it seems like it would be a hand with value in Short Deck as it does make a lot of straights, however it does not fare well under closer scrutiny.

K-Q, K-J, and K-10 do not perform that well in this analysis; however, this analysis is only based upon their effectiveness in making straights. These hands also hold a good deal of value with their ability to make high pairs and also the fact that they dominate hands such as Q-J, Q-10, J-10, and 10-9 when they make pairs, two pairs, or trips.

Hands such as 8-7, Q-9, J-8, and 10-7 should almost always be folded. Being suited does not help them that much as it is harder to make a flush. Possibly in an ante-only structure they can be profitably completed in the cutoff getting tremendous odds, however, they should be folded in earlier positions.

J-9, 10-8, and 9-7 are somewhat marginal but probably still worth a limp in the ante only structure from any position. However, they should be folded facing either a raise from up front, or in the case when you limp but encounter a big raise from behind you.

J-10, 9-8, Q-J, 10-9, and Q-10 are premium and you should look to see any flop.

According to this analysis hands like 9-6, 8-6, and 7-6 are very marginal yet they do make some straights with an ace on board that an opponent may not see.

In Six Plus where trips beat straights you should only play the premium connectors, preferably suited.

Connecting hands have a lot of value in Short Deck, however, big pairs and two broadways do as well. In the next two issues we look at how various hands perform against each other in various match ups before and after the flop. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. His new mixed-games website Counting Outs is a great starting resource for a plethora of games ranging from the traditional to the exotic. He can be reached at [email protected].