Sampling of Short Deck Post-Flop Equities

In this article we will examine several of the more common post-flop situations and the corresponding equities associated with them. Similar to the displays of preflop equities, all ties are allocated equally to the two hands and are based on the variation where straights beat trips.

Top Set

Board: Q J 10

Q Q (51%) vs A K (49%) – Nut Straight
Q Q (68%) vs K J (38%) – OESD w/ pair
Q Q (88%) vs J J (12%) – Middle Set

Yes, top set is a slight favorite over a made straight and this could make for some interesting dynamics. A raise would be quite a good play as it puts maximum pressure on non-nut straights and someone with an open-ended straight draw is hard pressed to call to a possible loser or chop. You are favorite against this hand however folding out 38 percent equity is substantial. Middle set, however, will probably still come along and that is the holding top set fares the best against.

Slow playing is an option but mathematically it’s more likely your opponent holds hands such as K-J and K-10 than Q-J or Q-10, and someone is not likely to lose a lot of money with the latter hands unless the board pairs.

Board: Q J 10

Q Q (50%) vs K J (50%) – OESD w/ flush draw

A strong combination draw is also almost always coming along but top set is a coin flip against that hand.

Board: Q J 10 8

Q Q(36%) vs A K (64%) – Nut straight

With one card to go top set has enough equity to see the river against a bet that is pot sized or smaller even if you are sure your opponent holds a straight. Against a pot sized bet you are getting 2:1 odds and thus require 33 percent equity to break even on our call. Of course, we may also win money on the river.

Board: A 7 6

A A (51%) vs 9 8 (49%) – Nut straight
A A[[suit:heart] (83%) vs 9 9 (17%) – Gut-shot straight draw w/ pair
A A[[suit:heart] (83%) vs 8 7 (17%) – Gut-shot straight draw w/ pair
A A[[suit:heart] (98%) vs A 7 (2%) – Top two pair

These examples are similar to the ones above although in this case you may be facing more semi-bluff hands which you have greater equity against or someone not fully recognizing straight possibilities overplaying top two pair.

Overpair

Board: K 7 10

A A[[suit:heart] (66%) vs Q J (34%) – OESD with two outs blocked
A A[[suit:heart] (51%) vs J 9 (49%) – Double Belly Buster with no outs blocked
A A[[suit:heart] (72%) vs A Q (28%) – Gut-shot w/ back door flush draw

Here in the first two hands we can see the value of possibly blocking two of your opponent’s outs. When you block two outs you are almost a two to one favorite but essentially a coin flip when you don’t. Notice that a gut-shot with back door flush possibilities has almost 30 percent equity and that is a holding you would want to get out by betting.

Notice on this flop that there are no non-pairing turn cards that do not make a straight possible. For example when the turn comes the 6 someone holding a 9-8 makes a straight. Flops such as K-Q-7 and K-J-8 are much easier to play holding aces because the turn has a few non pairing board blanks.

However, when the turn does not complete the straight the equities would be as follows:

Board: K 7 10 6

A A (79%) vs Q J (21%) – OESD
A A (71%) vs J 9 (29%) – Double Belly Buster Draw

Board: K 7 10

A A (17%) vs K K (83%) – Top Set
A A (40%) vs K 10 (60%) – Top two pair
A A (85%) vs A K (15%) – Top pair

You are quite an underdog when you are up against a set or two pair but thankfully due to card removal these hands are much less likely than Q-J or J-9. For example, let’s assume your opponent is playing strong on the flop and you have him down to a range of K-K, K-10, Q-J, and J-9. The resulting number of combinations and estimated equity would then be as follows:

Villain’s Holding Combos % Chance Equity
Q-J 16 36% 66% 24%
J-9 16 36% 51% 19%
K-10 9 20% 40% 8%
K-K 3 7% 17% 1%
44 52%

This example is simplistic in the sense that you cannot often narrow your opponent to such a tight range and other sets, or other hands such as 9-8 or A-K may also be in some players’ range. However, when dealing with a short deck we are more able to narrow down our opponents more precisely than in hold’em and card removal and blocking outs plays more of a role in our analysis.

Top Two Pair

Board: Q 7 10

Q 10 (54%) vs K J (46%) – OESD w/ full complement of outs
Q 10 (25%) vs 7 7 (75%) – Bottom Set
Q 10 (60%) vs A A (40%) – Over pair
Q 10 (70%) vs K Q (30%) – Top Pair

As we can see we are typically in good shape from an equity stand-point even if our opponent has some less likely sets in his range.

Top Pair

Board: Q 7 10

A Q (47%) vs K J (53%) – OESD w/ one out blocked
A Q (25%) vs Q 10 (75%) – Top two pair
A Q (40%) vs 10 7 (60%) – Bottom two pair
A Q (8%) vs 10 10 (92%) – Middle Set
A Q (76%) vs K Q (26%) – Top pair, worse kicker

Top Pair can be a difficult hand to play in Short Deck. In multi-way pots with action in front of you it can be folded. However, this would be a mistake against a single bet and if it’s checked to you top pair top kicker should almost certainly be bet. We will examine this concept further later in the series but there are many hands with decent equity such as Q-J, A-10, K-10, J-10, 10-9, 10-8, and 9-7 that have to fold. When there are multitude hands of this ilk out there the collective equity allowed by giving a free card is sizeable.

Draws

Board: A 10 6

Q 8 (37%) vs A A (63%) – Top set

Your equity in hold’em would be 27 percent; you fare better in Short Deck as flushes beat full houses and you have some backdoor straight possibilities that should they come in will not pair the board.

Q 8 (42%) vs A K (58%) – Top pair top kicker

Your equity situation is even better here because you add the chance of making a running two pair or trips in addition to your back door straight possibilities.
We should not neglect the fact that we are approximately 13 percent less likely to make a flush draw on the flop in the first place so we should not fall in love with all suited hands before the flop. However, if we do happen to hold a flush draw we do have a strong draw even though it is true that it is harder to make a flush.

Board: 10 8 6

Q J (32%) vs A A (68%) – Over pair
Q J (22%) vs 10 10 (78%) – Top set
Q J (61%) vs J 9 (39%) – OESD

In these hands we simply just hold a gut shot straight draw yet fare reasonably well against strong made hands where we would be a much sizeable underdog in hold’em. It’s also a sizeable favorite against an eight out nut draw as it would also be in hold’em. These examples show the power of a hand like Q-J in Short Deck because it has good reach, every straight it makes is the nuts, and you will often be able to realize your equity.
Armed with a background in the straight making abilities of several starting hands and sample pre and post flop equities we are ready to take the next step where we attempt to rank the various starting hands. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. His new mixed-games website Counting Outs is a great starting resource for a plethora of games ranging from the traditional to the exotic. He can be reached at [email protected].