Short Deck: Ranking The Starting Hands

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The value of a starting hand is a function of many variables; pure equity, playability, quality of possible draws, and its ability to collect money from inferior hands. So far in this series we have analyzed the probability of how often certain hands make strong holdings or draws, and examined equities before and after the flop. Thus, we are ready to put it all together and rank the overall strength of the starting hands.

Premium Hands

Pocket aces and pocket kings are premium hands, as they are in Full Deck. They are almost as big equity favorites over smaller pocket pairs as they are in regular hold’em and flop a set or better approximately 18 percent of the time. And as we have seen, a flopped set is a slight favorite over a flopped straight as the board will often pair.

Pocket queens is not far behind even though it is a small underdog against A-K in an all-in confrontation. It holds a lot of equity value versus premium connectors such as J-10 and 10-9 as it effectively blocks many of the straights these hands are hoping to make.

After the big pairs J-10 suited is probably the next most valuable starting hand. It will flop two pair or better, a powerful combination draw, flush draw, or some type of straight draw on 63.4 percent of flops. Since flushes are harder to make, J-10 offsuit is almost just as valuable as it will hit the flop hard around 60 percent of the time. What the J-10 lacks in pure equity before the flop it more than makes up for terms of playability because any straight it makes is the nuts, thus there are opportunities to cooler opponents who may hold inferior straights.

The value of A-K suited versus other premium suited connectors such as 9-8 suited, Q-J suited, and 10-9 suited is close. The A-K suited fares very well when it can effectively get all in before the flop, however, it can certainly realize its equity a large amount of the time as it makes big trips, top two pair, and nut draws approximately 36 percent of the time. In addition, top pair with the best kicker is a decently strong hand in many situations.

All of these hands are premium starters and you need a very good reason to fold any of them before the flop. You are dealt any of the pocket pairs approximately one percent of the time, any unsuited non paired combination 1.9 percent of the time, and any suited non paired combination around .6 percent of the time.

Premium

A-A 1.0%
K-K 1.0%
Q-Q 1.0%
J-10 s 0.6%
J-10 1.9%
A-K s 0.6%
Q-J s 0.6%
9-8 s 0.6%
10-9 s 0.6%
7.9%

It should be noted that this premium range has a lot of reach and on almost every single flop will make at a minimum top two pair. Only the J-9-6 and 10-8-6 flops “miss” this range. Therefore this range is self-balancing in that you are not required to expand it in order to have more coverage on an array of different flop types.

Very Good Hands

Pocket jacks and pocket tens are very good holdings in that they will flop sets or better very often and they also hold the key blockers against players trying to make straights. The main drawback with these hands is that they are often difficult to play post-flop when you don’t flop a set as you will either be facing over cards or straight possibilities.

A-K is considered a very good holding as is any suited Broadway hand not previously discussed such as A-Q suited, A-10 suited, and K-J suited. The latter hands make high trips; high two pairs, and have draws to the nuts including eight out double belly buster draws.

The offsuit versions of the premium connectors Q-J, 9-8, 10-9 make our list of very good hands as does J-9 suited:

Very Good

J-J 1.0%
10-10 1.0%
A-K 1.9%
A-Q s 0.6%
A-J s 0.6%
A-10 s 0.6%
Q-J 1.9%
9-8 1.9%
10-9 1.9%
K-Q s 0.6%
K-J s 0.6%
K-10 s 0.6%
J-9 s 0.6%
14.0%

Good Hands

Pocket nines is borderline marginal, however, its set making ability as well its ability to block or possibly play aggressively in order to represent straights makes it valuable enough to list here.

Any off suit broad-way hand is also good enough to try and see a flop with. Hands such as A-10 and K-J dominate many of the suited connectors such as Q-J, J-10, 10-9, and 10-8 in terms of making better two pairs or just a single pair on a flop such as J-6-6.

Finalizing the list of good hands are 10-8 suited, 10-8, and 9-7 suited:

Good

9-9 1.0%
A-Q 1.9%
A-J 1.9%
A-10 1.9%
K-Q 1.9%
K-J 1.9%
K-10 1.9%
J-9 1.9%
10-8 s 0.6%
10-8 1.9%
9-7 s 0.6%
17.5%

Marginal Hands

So far what we have classified as either premium, very good, or just good hands totals around 40 percent of hands. That is a decent amount of hands; however, due to the ante-only structure there are many situations where we have play more. For example, in late position facing two limps we are getting incredible 9:1 odds to see a flop. Or in the somewhat rare situation, even it folds to us in the cutoff we can limp getting 7:1 and only have one opponent, or we may choose to raise in the hopes of taking the pot down right there.

The list of marginal hands are as follows:

Marginal

8-8, 7-7, 6-6 2.9%
9-7 1.9%
8-7 s 0.6%
A-9 s, A-8 s, A-7 s 1.9%
8-7 1.9%
Q-9 s 0.6%
9-6 s, 8-6 s, 7-6 s 1.9%
J-8 s 0.6%
A-9, A-8, A-7 5.7%
10-7 s 0.6%
Q-9 1.9%
9-6, 8-6, 7-6 5.7%
A-6 s 0.6%
K-9 s 0.6%
27.6%

At this juncture we add in the remainder of the pocket pairs, lower aces, and some of the lower rated connector hands. Lower pocket pairs are quite marginal in that you must be concerned about both higher sets and straights, however having position will help you effectively navigate these situations.

Any hand containing an ace does have the ability to make a straight using both of your hole cards although when your side card is a nine or lower none of them will be the nut straight. Another drawback with the lower aces is the threat of domination from someone holding one with a better kicker.

Junk Hands

J-6 offsuit is widely considered to be the worst hand in the game. However, if you never play that hand you will never lose a dime with it so in theory the worst hand might be A-6 offsuit. Maybe it will occasionally win a tiny pot when an ace hits the board, everyone has connectors, and it checks around for multiple streets. Sometimes it will hit the bottom end of a straight but even if your hand is currently good the board is a quite scary 7-8-9 and you will tend to win little or end up getting outdrawn.

Everything else really doesn’t have a lot of value. When you think you are getting tremendous pot odds it’s because everyone is coming into the pot and your odds of winning are generally going down faster than your odds are going up. Then as a whole these hands tend to not play well post-flop. These hands constitute the bottom 33 percent of all hands so there really isn’t a good reason to get involved.

One exception may be the times it is limped to you on the button and you make a polarizing large preflop raise that is not expecting to simply just get called. However, this move should be made sparingly and is better made with hands that block A-A, K-K, and A-K (e.g. A-6 offsuit or K-8 suited) and have a little more value in the rare event that you are just simply called.

Adjustments for Six Plus Hold’em

When trips beat straights any pocket pair holds a tremendous amount of value. Pocket tens or better would generally be considered a premium starting hand. Any other pairs can be considered as very good holdings. While the risk of set over set is higher than it is when playing with a full deck, however the value of having straights and straight draws drawing dead is immense. The value of all connectors go way down because not only must you fear sets, the board will pair around 50 percent of the time and another player can easily make trips to beat you. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. His new mixed-games website Counting Outs is a great starting resource for a plethora of games ranging from the traditional to the exotic. He can be reached at [email protected].