Preparing To Negotiate Tournament Deals

About 2,400 years ago Sun Tzu wrote an immortal book, The Art of War. My two favorite quotations from it are:

“Battles are often won before they are fought,” and, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself, but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

In other words, whoever prepares best usually wins, and your two most important preparation tasks are analyzing your opponents and yourself.

Doyle Brunson would agree. He began According to Doyle: “Don’t just play your cards, play your people.” His words can easily be tweaked to fit tournament negotiations: “Don’t just play your stack, play your people.”

The computer formulas focus on the stacks and ignore the people behind the stacks.
Don’t settle for any formula’s deal. Play your people to get a better deal.

You can’t play your people without studying them intently. It’s not easy when you’re negotiating final table deals. You may have played against some opponents for hours, but have no time to study others. But every player – even one with the smallest stack – can veto any deal.

Start Studying Players Early

Before the negotiations begin, ask yourself: “How will they negotiate?”

Don’t just study the players at your table. When there are two or three tables left, study the other tables’ players. Focus on the best players and largest stacks because they’re most likely to reach the final table and be tougher negotiators.

The critical question is: How much do they want a deal? A few players will accept almost any deal. A few will demand much more than the formulas say they deserve. Most are somewhere between those extremes.

My book, Negotiate to Win: Gaining the Psychological Edge, 2nd Edition, coined the term, “The Law of Indifference. The less you want a deal, the stronger you are.”

It doesn’t matter why someone wants or doesn’t want a deal. The important fact is the indifference itself, not the causes for it.

The most reliable sign of eagerness is suggesting a deal, any deal. Someone may say, “I want to play it out, but I think we should …” No matter what he says next, you can be fairly sure he wants a deal.

The surest sign of indifference is a refusal to discuss negotiating.

The more willing people are to negotiate, the more confident you can be that they want a deal. That conclusion has three implications:

1. Assess everyone’s indifference. The more eager they are, the less you should offer them.
2. Pretend you’re indifferent, especially if you really want a deal. If they know you’re eager, they may push you to take a bad deal.
3. Never tell them your WAP (Walk Away Point). You want more, but if you tell them your WAP, you’ll rarely get more.

To estimate their indifference, assess them on three dimensions:

1. Playing style
2. Confidence
3. Attitude toward money

Playing Style

When the final table begins, pay less attention to players you’ve profiled and intensely study how the new ones play.

The more players like to gamble, the less they want a deal. Their style tells you how they feel about gambling. Expect this relationship between styles and indifference. Higher numbers are more likely to want a deal.

• Loose-aggressive
• Tight-aggressive
• Loose-passive
• Tight-passive

Sometimes, negotiations begin before you can accurately assess some players. Either you haven’t seen enough hands, or their cards change their apparent style. A Rock on a rush may seem looser and more aggressive than a card-dead Maniac.

Search your memory and other sources for more information. Have you played with them before? What can you remember about their play? Their negotiating style? Their comments about playing and negotiating?

What do other players say about them? If there’s a break, call friends, and ask about their style and how to play and negotiate against them.

Confidence

The more confident they are, the more indifferent they will be. Confident people naturally believe they’ll get more from playing than from negotiating. Unsure people have the opposite belief.

Most players won’t tell you that they’re unsure of their skills. Players who would love a deal may pretend they want to keep playing. Because many players lie well, pay less attention to their words and study their body language and voice.

If they say, “I don’t want a deal,” but seem unsure of themselves, talk a lot, sell hard, and lean forward, they do want one. Increase their anxiety and your power by politely saying you’d rather keep playing.

Don’t give a long explanation.
Don’t make a counter-offer.

The less you say, the stronger you look, and the less confident they will become. They will often make or accept an offer that’s better for you.

Attitude Toward Money

The more people care about money, the more eager they’ll be because a deal reduces risk. The larger the prize pool is, the more risk-averse they will become. Someone who wants to keep playing when the prize pool is $500 will be eager to settle when the prize pool is $100,000.

Ask Questions

Since most people won’t volunteer information about their confidence and attitude toward money, ask apparently rude questions such as:

• “How many tournaments have you played?”
• “How many final tables have you made?”
• “How often have you taken first place?”
• “What size tournament do you usually play?”
• “Did you buy in today or win a satellite?”

The money is probably more important to satellite winners, and the risk of playing feels higher because it’s much larger in comparison to their personal investment.

Can you be sure?

Of course not. Some satellite winners want to gamble, and some players who bought in are eager to settle. Nor can you be sure about any of the earlier points.

But poker is all about EV, expected value, not known value. If you don’t have better information, base your estimates of their indifference on their style, apparent confidence, and attitude toward money. Then adjust your strategy. The weaker they are, the tougher you should be.

Fight Your Discomfort

The previous column ended with the same subtitle because most Americans are uncomfortable about negotiations. They aren’t part of our culture. We wouldn’t even think of haggling at Walmart.

Fight your discomfort because it causes expensive mistakes. You might be too uncomfortable to ask “rude questions,” or you could admit that you want a deal, or you might give away valuable information. You might even feel you can get a better deal, but be so uncomfortable that you accept a bad one.

A few tense minutes can make you hundreds or thousands of dollars. So fight your discomfort and do whatever will produce the best deal.

A Final Word

We’ve covered only understanding your opponents. Future columns will discuss the most important part of EQ, learning about yourself. ♠

Email [email protected] for information about my negotiations books and online course.