A Preflop Spot Where Many Amateurs Fail To Profit

If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out Jonathan Little’s elite training site at PokerCoaching.com/CardPlayer.

I was recently told about a poker hand from a $1,000 buy-in tournament that illustrates a frequent mistake that many poker players are unaware they are making.

With blinds at 400-800 with an 800 big blind ante, a loose, but straightforward player raised to 2,000 out of his 28,000 effective stack. A tight player called in the cutoff. Our Hero in the small blind decided to three-bet to 7,000 with pocket nines.

I do not like this three-bet size at all. When faced with a three-bet that is only 5,000 more, both the preflop raiser and the caller will be getting excellent pot odds, meaning they are unlikely to fold. This would be fine if Hero had an overly premium hand like A-A that is unlikely to get outdrawn, but most flops bring at least one overcard to pairs like 9-9.

If I wanted to three-bet with 9-9, I would have pushed all-in. While this will force many marginal and weak hands to fold, Hero will often scoop the 6,000 pot with no showdown. When he happens to get called, he will usually be against a decently strong range of big pairs, A-K and A-Q, but even that isn’t too terrible because Hero will win roughly 35% of the time.

While going all-in risks going broke, it is almost certainly the most profitable option. Calling and trying to see a favorable flop is also acceptable, especially if the initial raiser is overly tight.

As expected, both opponents called. The flop came K J 6. Hero checked and folded when the initial raiser bet 6,000 into the 22,600 pot.

While this may seem like a fairly innocuous hand because Hero made an easy check/fold in a multi-way pot on a flop that is awful for him, he was completely unaware that a simple all-in before the flop would have likely won the pot with relatively little risk, especially given the preflop raiser is somewhat loose.

To help ensure you do not make this mistake in your games, you can use the following equation to determine if a preflop all-in is profitable.

If the all-in is decently profitable, it is usually the best play. If it is only marginally profitable, calling the preflop raise (or folding if your hand is junky) is likely ideal. Most of the time when your stack is roughly 20 big blinds or shorter (or even a bit deeper if there is a raise and a call before the action gets to you), 3-betting small is not a wise play.

Profit for an all-in over a raise = (% everyone folds) x (amount you win when they fold) + (% someone calls) x (equity in the pot when called – amount you put in the pot)
So, you first have to figure out how often someone yet to act will call. While it is difficult to determine with a high degree of certainty, you can estimate. The big blind will rarely call and the preflop caller is also unlikely to call because if he had a premium hand, he would have three-bet before the flop.

The preflop raiser will usually only call with A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, 10-10, A-K, and A-Q. That range is a total of 62 combinations of hands. Most loose players raise from middle position with all sorts of hands, such as A-2 suited, 9-7 suited, and J-10 offsuit. Many loose players raise about 310 combinations of hands, meaning Hero will get called by the preflop raiser 62/310 = 20% of the time. To account for the players yet to act, let’s assume Hero actually gets called 35% of the time.

When Hero gets called, he will win the 59,600 pot 35% of the time, meaning his equity when called is .35 X 59,600 = 20,860.

Plugging in the numbers, we have:

Profit = (.65)(5,600) + (.35)(20,860 – 28,000)

Profit = 3,640 – 2,499 = 1,141

While profiting 1,141 (or about 1.5 big blinds) on an all-in may not seem like much, it is actually a hefty profit to extract from out of position. Also, to be safe, I assumed that the preflop raiser is tighter than many loose players are, and also that the players yet to act will call more often than many will. So, profiting 1.5 big blinds is essentially the “worst-case scenario.” When the worst-case scenario is a decent profit, that play should strongly be considered.

You may be wondering how you are supposed to do this math at the poker table. Well, you aren’t! You should spend significant time away from the table to determine when you should make these all-ins so you can easily recognize them when they arise. If you run enough simulations away from the table, you will better understand when this maneuver is justified. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $7 million in live tournament earnings, best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site at PokerCoaching.com/cardplayer.