Triple Draw: Turn Battle Of Two-Card Draws

Position is extremely important in Deuce to Seven Triple Draw Lowball (27TD), as it is in any lowball draw variant. Acting last allows us to make more efficient patting and breaking decisions, and also grants us leverage in making those same decisions more difficult for our opponent.

It can also give us the advantage in the smaller pots when both players initially fail to improve. Suppose we open from the hijack with 2-4-8, and the big blind defends and draws two. Our opponent checks after the first draw, and we do likewise after catching two kings.

Betting here serves no purpose since our opponent will almost never fold, and he might be sandbagging a made hand or playing a mediocre one-card draw in a passive manner. And having caught the kings, it’s just a little more likely that he may have improved. Had we made two pair or trips we could venture a bet and possibly initiate a snow, but a high pair is a clear check-behind.

However, in this case our opponent did not improve, and on the second draw both players again take two cards. Since the flop checked through, there are only 2.25 big bets sitting there in the middle, but they do matter. In games where winning one big bet an hour is fantastic, these small orphaned pots shouldn’t be given up on easily. We need to at least win our fair share, and if possible, win a little more than we are entitled to.

On the turn, the player with position has a distinct advantage as his opponent will often lead out with any sort of improvement, and when checked to, a bet only needs to take down the pot around 30% of the time to show an immediate profit. Then if he gets called, he can still get lucky and make a hand while acting last on the river.

This has led many players when out-of-position to adopt a 100% checking strategy, mostly entailing check-calling with one card draws and check-raising pat hands. In their mind, a trap is successfully sprung if they improved to a good one card draw and induced a bet from an unimproved 2-4-8.

This strategy has merit and may be better than simply always leading improvement and otherwise checking, but it is not a panacea. Let’s take a look at some of the math behind this situation and see what it may indicate.

Had the out-of-position player simply led out with 2-3-4-7, an unimproved 2-4-8 is usually folding, and the 2.25 big bets sitting in the middle would have been secured. But when the first player checks and the unimproved 2-4-8 takes the bait and bets, a turn bet goes in with the premium seven draw having an approximate 68% to 32% equity advantage, resulting in a net gain of .36 big bets.

However, since the 2-4-8 would have folded, but is instead drawing live to the pot, an amount of .72 big bets (2.25 big bets * 32%) of equity share was lost in the process. Thus overall not winning the pot immediately costs the out-of-position player approximately .36 big bets (.72 – .36). And it’s certainly never a guarantee that the unimproved 2-4-8 will bet, he might just decide to take the free draw.

It’s even more costly in three-bet pots. For example, with 3.75 big bets in the middle not winning the pot immediately costs 1.2 big bets (3.75 * 32%), with the benefit of “trapping” your opponent on the turn remaining the same. In theory some of this shortfall should be able to be recouped in the river betting, but not all of it can be.

While there are merits to the 100% out-of-position check strategy, there is simply no way to overcome the positional disadvantage. The in-position player position can still bet a large amount of his range, and have the luxury of a free draw always available to him with his weakest holdings.

A more effective out-of-position strategy would entail a mixture of leads and checks, and when continuing after a check it should often be with the intent to raise a bet. And the check-raises should be done with pat hands, snows, and one card draws alike. How often we should lead versus checking is a function of our holding, the cards we have seen, and our opponent’s tendencies.

But most of the time we should be leading and thus when compared with a 100% check strategy, a check to our opponent more often means “bet and take it.” Thus it’s imperative to hold back some premium one card draws to use as a check-raise.

Even though we are re-opening the betting, with a premium draw we aren’t taking much the worst of it (if at all) against our opponent’s betting range. And getting a fold from an unimproved two-card draw or even possibly a one-card draw to a ten is a big win.

While an effective out-of-position strategy may help level the playing field, the in-position player will still win more than his fair share of pots. For example, if the hijack opens with 2-4-8 and the big blind defends with the same exact hand, the in-position player may win 55% (or more) of the pots. And that doesn’t include the positional benefit of possibly making an extra bet along the way.

One has to respect position, and that should start with your hand selection before the first draw. There’s a price to be paid when playing inferior holdings from early position, or when defending the big blind with a weak rough holding.

Heads-up for a single bet we are always going to defend 2-4-8, but a holding such as 3-7-8 can be mucked, especially against an early position open. Equities and getting the proper immediate odds to defend, and actually making money playing out the hand in the long run are two different things entirely. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. The certified personal trainer owned a gym in New Jersey, but has since moved to Las Vegas. He started playing the game back in 2003, and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. Learn more or just say hello with an email to [email protected].