Implied Odds: When Should You Speculate?

If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out Jonathan Little’s elite training site at PokerCoaching.com/CardPlayer.

Whenever you play a hand of poker, you must consider your immediate risk (your pot odds), your future potential risk (how much you may have to risk on later betting rounds), and also the amount you can potentially profit (your implied odds).

You must understand that different types of hands play better under different circumstances. Sometimes you should play speculative hands that are likely behind at the moment, but have the potential to improve to premium hands. And other times they should just be folded immediately.

So how do you know when you should speculate?

Suppose someone raises to two big blinds before you and you have a solid speculative hand like 7 5 on the button, which is almost certainly the worst hand at the moment but may improve to a premium hand like a flush or a straight that is usually best.

The amount you can potentially win from your opponent should be one of your main concerns. If you can only win a few big blinds from your opponent because they have a short stack of perhaps 25 big blinds or fewer, you should fold because the potential reward (25 bbs) is not worth the risk (2 bbs).

This is expressed as 12.5:1 implied odds. You have to invest one unit to potentially win 12.5 units. If you are both deep stacked with 200 big blinds, however, you should see the flop because you will then be getting 100:1 implied odds.

A simple rule you can usually follow is that in order to profitably play a suited connected hand like 7 5, you need to be getting 20:1 implied odds or more, assuming you do not expect to be able to win the pot by bluffing too often (which may or may not be the case in your games).

With small pairs, you need 10:1 implied odds or more. If you are not getting the correct implied odds because the stacks are shallow or the initial raise is large, you either have to fold, or potentially use your hand as a three-bet bluff.

While small pairs, suited aces, and suited connectors have implied odds, some hands have reverse implied odds, meaning they will usually either win a small pot or lose a large pot.

The hands that have the worst reverse implied odds are those of a big card with a small card that are not suited, such as K 4 or Q 5.

If you see the flop with K-6 and make top pair, you have a decently strong hand that you should rarely be looking to fold. If you bet and all your opponents fold, you can be confident you had the best hand, but you win only a small pot.

If instead you bet and someone calls or raises, they could have a better top pair than yours or some sort of draw, but you have no way of knowing which. If you bet the flop and they call, and if you continue betting on the turn and river, when you get called down, it will usually be by a better hand, resulting in you losing a large pot.

Because of this, hands with large reverse implied odds should not be played in most situations, especially in multi-way pots or when the stacks are deep. When shallow stacked though, decent reverse implied odds hands like A 8 and K 9 go up in value because when you make top pair and happen to get stacks in, you only lose a small number of big blinds.

In general, as the stacks are deeper and the pots are played more multi-way, you are more incentivized to speculate with hands that are likely to lose a little or win a lot, which are small pairs, suited aces, and suited connectors. If you focus on splashing around with those hands while folding the non-premium offsuit hands, you will stay out of trouble and have the potential to win a ton of chips when you flop well.

If you want more resources to help you improve your game, I put together a course called Master the Fundamentals. This course covers the basics, preflop, post-flop, multiway, turn and river strategy, and much more. This course is completely free inside the Card Player Poker School!

When you join the Card Player Poker School (it’s free to join), you’ll also get:
✔ Free downloadable preflop charts
✔ GTO preflop charts
✔ Video Classes
✔ Interactive Hand Quizzes
✔ Free Course: Master the Fundamentals
✔ Free Course: The 25 Biggest Leaks and How to Fix Them
✔ Free training every week

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $7 million in live tournament earnings, best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site at PokerCoaching.com/cardplayer.