Stud: Big Pairs Don’t Grow On Trees

Big pairs are your bread-and-butter holdings in Stud High and generally defined as tens through aces. It’s always relative, though. On one board, a pair of nines might be an overwhelming favorite to be the best holding, and in another hand, a pair of queens may need to hit the muck when two big hands are going to war.

However, on a random deal they are typically the strongest hands out, and we should often play them as such, unless circumstances develop that may indicate otherwise.

Third Street Guidelines

Big pairs play better heads-up, therefore we should tend to play them in a straight-forward aggressive manner for value and to also limit the field. As discussed in past articles, we shouldn’t always have a big pair when putting in action with a big card showing, however, most of our opponents tend to get obstinate regardless of what they think we have.

When I was newer to the game, having many big cards behind me was a big cause of concern, and there were times where I would limp or even outright fold a split pair of tens or jacks on scary boards. But after crunching the math, I learned that this was probably a mistake.

For example, let’s assume that we are first to act at a six-handed table in a high-ante game where we are dealt (J 6) J and the table upcards read as follows:
2 (bring-in), HERO, A, K, Q, 8

In this scenario each big card has an approximate 14% chance of having a better starting hand. For obvious reasons, the deuce and eight are a much lesser threat with each only having rolled-up trips or a better wired pair around 1.27% of the time.

The probability of having the best current is approximately: (.86)(.86)(.86)(.9873)(.9873) = 62%

In a high-ante structure this is seemingly too much hand to fold even if in some hands we are potentially setting ourselves up for getting outplayed and/or being subjected to some reverse implied odds situations.

If we get re-raised by one of the big cards, we should fold our split jacks with a weak kicker, and aggressive players might do so with holdings such as three flushes or smaller wired pairs. And our particular holding also doesn’t perform that well when the pot goes off multi-way.

Older material on stud often advocates limping in these spots to see what happens; however, these limps often get met with a raise more often than if we had just completed the bet ourselves. Thus, it’s probably worth completing the bet to limit the field, and also gain more clarity on where we stand.

If we complete the bet and just get called we should proceed carefully, but it’s likely that we have the best hand. Especially since the particular ordering of the cards indicates that none of the higher cards left to act need be overly concerned with those remaining.

For example, if the ace folds, a pair of kings doesn’t have much to fear about the queen behind him. The situation is slightly different if the queen was up first and cold-calls as he might be worried about having both an ace and a king behind him. Many players will re-raise a pair of queens anyway, but there are definitely some that may fear putting in this action with scare cards left to act.

Big pairs don’t perform that great multi-way, thus if many players are already in the pot, we can often still play, but should typically refrain from putting more money into a situation that can quickly go south. For example, if a ten opens and is called by an eight and a jack, we should just simply follow along and flat a pair of kings and see what develops on future streets.

Later Street Concepts

Suppose we open a pair of kings from late position and get called by a 7. On fourth street we are going to be betting most of the time unless our opponent gets a card such as the 6 that coordinates nicely on his board.

In this occurrence we should check, as our opponent might have picked up a strong draw against which we are usually an underdog. In addition, it looks like we were possibly on a steal, thus our opponent will often bet the street for us regardless of what he has.

We must also exercise extreme caution when our opponent pairs his door card right away as it is one of the most costly errors that a beginning player can make.

Suppose that a nine limps in and you complete the bet with an ace up and another ace in the hole. The nine pairs his door card and comes out with a double bet (where this is still allowed). If you have not improved and are up against trips you only have around 10% equity. Obviously, that is a situation to avoid, but we are also an underdog to two pair and are not a huge favorite against a pair and a three-card drawing hand:

(5 5) 9 9 – 55% Equity versus Aces
(10 J) 9 9 – 40% Equity versus Aces
(5 2) 9 9 – 40% Equity versus Aces

To consider calling down you need at least one of the following to be true:
You have improved to at least two pair, preferably both of which are greater than nines
You can account for at least one other nine
You have a good read that your opponent would not have limp-called with a pair of nines

It’s rare to be certain that your opponent would not have limp-called with a pair as it takes time to develop this specific read and they might have only done so this time because they were afraid of several big cards behind them. Some players will often limp-call with a pair of nines, while others would never play in that fashion.

We can’t be afraid of folding the best hand here, it’s definitely frustrating but our opponent just happened to catch a lucky card that should win him the pot. Don’t reward this passive play by committing a lot of chips with the overall worst of it. However, if he doesn’t pair his door card until sixth street, we are usually forced to continue on due to the size of the pot.

The pots get big in stud and we should see showdown with our big pairs more than not. This also applies to our opponents therefore we shouldn’t always be fearful of betting an unimproved pair of aces on the river against a likely pair of kings. If he has you beat so be it, but big pairs don’t grow on trees and we should always seek maximum value with them. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. The certified personal trainer owned a gym in New Jersey, but has since moved to Las Vegas. He started playing the game back in 2003, and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. Learn more or just say hello with an email to [email protected].