How Do Teams Cope With Adversity?

Watching how teams cope with adversity can be a very useful element in sports handicapping.

It has always been interesting to me – when observing the "overall" in sports (in contrast to the nitty-gritty stats or particulars of a game) – how some teams are able to cope with adversity much better than others. In fact, I view it this way: Overcoming adversity is the sign of a good team; good teams reveal themselves as such by overcoming adversity.

Considering the ever-longer sports seasons these days, it is inevitable that everything is not going to go right for a team over all months of the campaign. Obviously, there can be a string of setbacks that virtually no team can overcome. There have been a couple of times in just the last few college football seasons when a team has been down to its fifth-string, or even sixth-string, quarterback. In such extreme situations, you can't expect much more from that team other than to hang in there the best it can.

But the more frequent occurrence is when a team loses an important player at a crucial time, or must deal with "unfair" scheduling due to the demands of the TV networks, or must deal with a death close to the team, or some other intangible or distraction. It is curious that some teams are able to find a way to play their way through the negative situations, while others are not.

Teams with solid fundamental coaching, respected leaders in the locker room, or possession of yet untapped personnel resources often find a way to overcome the seeming setback. They keep fighting and trying until they find a way to win. I guess a couple of prime examples would be the year the New York Knicks won the NBA title after star center Willis Reed had suffered a debilitating hip injury. Reed limped onto the court to start the next game when he could barely walk. But the mere effort seemed to inspire his teammates against the L.A. Lakers.

A few years later, the Lakers pulled off a similar "miracle" against Philadelphia to win the NBA title. With Kareem Abdul-Jabbar sidelined in game six with a severe ankle sprain, rookie Earvin "Magic" Johnson took over Kareem's post-up role (and eventually played all five positions sometime during the game) and led L.A. to an upset win in Philly, preventing the game-six loss and the possibility of playing a seventh game for the NBA title without Abdul-Jabbar (who ended up being a six-time MVP).

Although those are two of the more renowned instances of teams overcoming adversity, it should be pointed out that both the Knicks and Lakers had already advanced to the finals and had demonstrated substantial mettle over the course of the season by just getting there. One of the keys to successful sports betting is identifying teams with character, cohesion, and chemistry as early as possible, and then sticking with them even when the odds are seemingly against them. That's where the sports-betting profits are often found over the course of the season.

One of the prime examples in recent years was the 2002 Anaheim Angels. They started the season 2-14, but still ended up winning the World Series. And, as the Angels fought their way back from that terrible start, they identified themselves as a team that could cope with adversity. They started beating good teams such as Seattle, Oakland, and New York. Beating good teams is always a positive sign; it rarely happens by accident with any frequency. The Angels dominated the weak teams. They started to win games by coming from behind. Then, they began thinking they were never out of a game because they could come from behind. Winning begets winning. Angel fans and PR types started hyping the "Rally Monkey." It was silly, and everyone knew it, but so what? The Rally Monkey helped perpetuate the team's come-from-behind faith right through games six and seven of the World Series. They lost veteran starting pitcher Aaron Sele in August, but kept on winning, even with unproven (but talented) youngsters.

The Angels were a team that fought through adversity. Their refusal to give up in any game or to "quit" early in the season were signs of an ascending team.

In contrast, many teams tend to wallow in their misery when things don't go right. Negative situations become even worse. Without solid leadership, many of their players are content to "play out the string" for the rest of the season. They become sloppy in their fundamentals. They make mental mistakes. They lose games they shouldn't. These are signs of a declining team. Look to go against them, even if the odds on the game seem out of whack. As a wise old handicapper once told me, "Don't expect a sick cat to get well." That's not a wise way to bet. Wait until the recovery in fact happens before risking your hard-won dollars.

In many respects, the true measure of a team is how it copes with adversity. Determined players with enough talent and lots of leadership can often find a way. I am always on the lookout for teams demonstrating signs of that "refuse to lose" mentality. And when the tough-minded teams reveal themselves, there's usually more money to be made in trusting them, even when the odds seem to be against them.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of the Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly-compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the Gold Sheet's new 2003 College and Pro Football Annual on newsstands this summer. To reserve a copy, just call the Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up the Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.