Betting Marginal Hands

I've often written about the value of betting hands on the river that many players would check down. For instance, when many players who have been betting top pair with a big kicker get to the river against a single opponent and the river card looks fairly harmless, they check. Maybe they've decided the pot's big enough, they can't stand the idea of getting check-raised, or whatever. But remember, a single big bet represents the hourly expectation of a good player. Picking up an extra bet here and there can make a huge difference in your bottom line. So, if you have A-K and have been betting all the way when a king flops, bet the river – particularly if you have position and your opponent has checked to you.

Fine, you say, but what if the situation isn't so obvious – suppose that you have a 10 kicker with your king instead of an ace? This is indeed less clear, and in these cases, you have to know your enemy. Let's call your opponent Bob. If Bob plays any king (and there are many players who do), your K-10 still rates to be good enough to justify a bet. And if Bob is the kind of guy who will call you with second pair, even a king with a marginal kicker deserves a bet. On the other hand, if Bob is a tight-passive player and is likely to check and call with K-J or K-Q (and is unlikely to have a weaker king than that), you should check, given the chance.

This all points out two key elements of winning hold'em (or any kind of poker, for that matter):

1. Getting involved with marginal hands puts you in awkward situations later in the hand. In the above case, if you had A-K (or even K-Q), you could bet with confidence and get called by many weaker hands. But, a marginal kicker causes you to check down the best hand on occasion or have your bets called only by better hands.

2. Position matters. If you have to act first with a marginal hand, you have a very difficult decision to make, and your opponent gets to check down weaker hands or bet better ones after you check. However, when you have position, the same advantage falls to you. This is where you pick up an extra bet with a marginally better hand and save a bet with a marginally worse one. Moral: If you're going to play these kinds of hands, do it from late position.

Another good example of betting marginal hands is when you don't even have top pair, but your opponents have as much as told you that they don't, either. For instance, you open with a raise from late position with J-J and just the two blinds call. Now, the flop has an overcard (which is fairly frequent when you have pocket jacks): Q-8-2. Both blinds check to you, you bet, and they both call. The turn is a complete rag – a 3. They check again. You're fearful that one of them has a queen and is unwilling to bet, so you check, too. Note that you're risking a free card (you'd hate to see an ace or king on the river), but sometimes it's a good play. The river is another apparently meaningless card – say, a 7. They both check again. It's often correct to bet here. Your check on the turn indicated weakness, but they passed on the opportunity to grab the pot. Of course, it's possible that one of them has a 10-9 or J-10 for a gutshot that never got there, and he's not going to call your bet on the river. But you gave hands such as 9-9 and A-8 hope via your check on the turn, and they may well pay off a bet on the river (and be correct in doing so). Again, it really helps to know your opposition, but against people you don't know, give serious thought to betting here.

One final note: If the highest card on the board pairs and they still check, you've been given an engraved invitation to bet. It's practically a freeroll if you have very near the best possible hand short of trips. Anybody who had top pair and rivered trips is extremely unlikely to check again. So, for example, if the board comes Q-8-2-3-Q, and you bet the flop and checked the turn, and two opponents check to you on the river, checking J-J would be an awful mistake.

Thank you for reading.