Fact Vs. Fiction in NFL Exhibition Games

With NFL preseason football under way, it's time to take a brief look at some of the conventional wisdom and common misperceptions when it comes to exhibition play in terms of current fact vs. fiction.

It is foolish to waste your time trying to handicap NFL preseason games. Fiction. Just about all of the nation's top professional handicappers indulge in preseason action. And they're not doing it just to amuse themselves. There is a large, vocal, pontificating faction in the media that believes wagering on preseason games is completely asinine and degenerate; that exhibitions are totally unpredictable. Of course, the pros know this is not true. As in the regular season, many exhibitions can be wildly unpredictable. Also, as in the regular season, disciplined handicappers try to skip those games and focus on those that figure to be more formful. And they find more than a few. Preseason football is a genuine test of a handicapper's knowledge of the coaches and players. And even if handicappers lose some of their bankroll in the preseason, they hone their skills and gain lots of valuable knowledge that can give them an edge once the regular season starts.

No coach really cares whether his team wins or loses in the preseason. Fiction. Bill Parcells cares. Otherwise, his teams wouldn't have covered 39 of 61 (64 percent) games in the preseason during his stops with the Giants, Pats, and Jets. Parcells likes to instill those winning habits. Many others do, as well. Some coaches try to reverse previous losing attitudes. Some coaches get the old "jut jaw" after a bad performance. Motivation makes a difference in the preseason, just as it does in the regular season.

Teams that have a game under their belts in the "preliminary" week of preseason dominate those that do not. Fiction. Better hold up on that "domination" concept. Teams with a game under their belts were only 1-2-1 vs. the spread when facing those making their preseason debut in 2002. Over the last two preseasons, the "belted" teams are 8-4-1; over the last nine years, it's dead even at 25-25-1.

Teams that start the preseason 0-2 tend to jack up their intensity in the next game. Fact. Coaches are fully aware that the outcome of preseason games is meaningless in the standings, but they get antsy after losing two straight to start the preseason. Teams that lost their first two games last year were only 4-4 vs. the spread in their next game (when not facing a team in a similar situation). However, over the last six preseasons, the "0-2" teams are 27-19 vs. the spread; over the last 18 years, 59 percent.

The "unders" have the edge vs. the "overs" in early preseason weeks. Semifiction. The "overs" led the "unders" 10-8 in the preliminary week and first full week of the preseason last year. But, the "overs" trailed 13-5 in 2001. However, for the last eight years overall, the "overs" lead 79-69 in the first one-plus weeks of preseason play. The concept of the "vanilla" offense has changed in recent years. It is routine now for many teams to employ their three-, four-, or five-receiver formations in certain situations. And "nickel" and "dime" schemes are now part of every team's defense and are regularly practiced in game conditions.

The annual Giants-Jets clash is just "another preseason game" as far as the players are concerned. Fiction (at least to the Jets players). The Jets have now covered a rather amazing 11 straight in the intracity series that pits the "firstborn blue blood" against the "bastard son." And the annual meeting is usually scheduled as the next-to-last game of the preseason. That's because coaches use that game as their main dress rehearsal for opening day, giving starters their most extensive work of the preseason. (The last exhibition game tends to be little more than a tuneup, with coaches then much more focused on their opening-day opponent.)

Familiarity with all the players is a big plus. That's a fact, Jack. Handicappers realize that few preseason games end with the starters on the field. In the late going, it's usually up to the backups on defense to protect a lead, and the youngsters and newcomers on offense to come from behind. That's why professional handicappers usually watch NFL exhibition games to the bitter end and then study box scores. They want to learn each team's depth, its hot rookies, and the quality reserve quarterbacks.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for The Gold Sheet's new 2003 College and Pro Football Annual on newsstands now. To buy your copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.