Unbalanced Road Teams in College Football

With the new college football season beginning to unfold, now is a good time for a couple of the most frequent warnings I give to my friends who are eager to expand their pigskin bankrolls as quickly as possible.

First, be careful about "unloading" on a team or a game early in the season. Don't get me wrong, it's certainly OK to test the waters in the first couple weeks of the season, but I also think it's important to acknowledge the fact that you're still learning about each team and its younger players in the early going. You haven't seen the new players on a team – its true freshmen, its redshirt frosh, and junior college transfers who have joined the team. A few of them might be ready to make an immediate impact on a team's prospects for the new season. Most of the others, however, will take a while before they blossom. This can be especially true for young quarterbacks.

But even if they are ready to contribute immediately, you don't, in fact, know that early in the season. You're mostly making a guess. Sports betting by its very nature involves lots of educated guesses and calculated gambles. But, the more you know about a new player and how he fits in with his team, the better those guesses and gambles will eventually be. And, early in the season, you're still learning about the unfolding campaign. So, you're best advised to temper your football-betting enthusiasm at least just a little bit.

Try to limit the number of wagers you make in the first two weeks of the season. If that's too hard for you, cut down the size of each wager to 50 percent or 60 percent of a normal midseason wager while you are still learning the strengths and weaknesses of the new edition of a team.

Even though there are likely to be some pointspread bargains to be found, it's best to "hold your ammo" at least a little bit until you know more about the teams and until the games become a little more formful. Remember the basics of money management. Never get blown out; be determined to hang in for the long haul; manage your bankroll so that you can strike when the fundamentals and pointspread value turn in your favor.

The second warning I give them is to be careful when counting on unbalanced teams on the road early in the season against good defensive teams. We had several highly visible instances in this category last year. To cite a few widely viewed examples, let's recall the visits of Texas Tech and Washington State to Ohio State, and of LSU and Marshall to Virginia Tech.

In the games at Ohio State, Texas Tech had record-breaking senior QB Kliff Kingsbury and its "Air Raid" spread attack, while Washington State had its wide-open three-WR offense and mobile senior QB Jason Gesser of the pass-happy Pac-10.

In the games at Virginia Tech, defending SEC champ LSU was changing from the pass-oriented offense of departed senior QB Rohan Davey to a run-oriented offense under lightly experienced sophomore Matt Mauck, while Marshall featured its wide-open spread attack and strong-armed 6-foot-6-inch senior All-America QB Byron Leftwich.

All four games took place before Sept. 15, and the home team was favored on all four occasions, with every contest on television.

On each occasion, the home team covered, and only in the Washington-Ohio State game did the second half make any difference. Virginia Tech led LSU 14-0 after 18 minutes in winning 26-8. VT led Marshall 20-0 at the half and 33-0 after three quarters before winning 47-21. Ohio State led TT 21-7 at the half (and 38-7 in the third) before winning 45-21. Ohio State trailed Washington State 7-6 at the half before having a dominating 19-0 second half to win 25-7.

On paper going into the season, each of the underdogs figured to be able to give the hosts a game of it. Each of those underdogs also received some substantial support from the betting public. But, in reality, the powerful defenses of the host teams – spurred on by large, rabid, sellout crowds – were able to successfully prepare and focus on the opponents' well-established strengths and largely minimize their effectiveness.

Strange things happen early in the season, especially on the first road trip for each team. Many players are making their first road start. Most coaching staffs have new members. The travel itself in intersectional games is new to many players. When a visitor (for example, TT, Washington State, Marshall) can't run and possess the ball on the road, its defense often wears down; if the visitor can't pass effectively (LSU), it's extremely difficult to play "catch-up." Strong defensive teams, when properly focused and motivated, often hold a decisive edge over unbalanced offenses in early games despite the proven talent on those offenses, which usually get better in overcoming adversity and playing on the road as the season goes on.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for The Gold Sheet's new 2003 College and Pro Football Annual on newsstands now. To buy your copy of this valuable reference manual, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.