Late-Season Dogs in the NFL

There's been a consistent phenomenon late in the long NFL campaign that the conscientious handicapper can use to his advantage: Home underdogs become even more rewarding in the last two weeks of the NFL season.

Over the last nine years in pro football, only once have the home dogs not enjoyed a winning mark during weeks 16 and 17 combined. In fact, during those two final weeks of the season, home underdogs have clicked for a combined 56-34-1 pointspread record. That's 62.2 percent, a fine mark in football handicapping.

But a little research has shown there's an even more interesting statistical breakdown. In the final week (17) of the regular season, home dogs have gone 23-21 over the last nine years.

But during week 16, the home dogs have gone 33-13-1 since 1994. That's 71.2 percent, a manly percentage by any handicapper's measure.

There are plenty of logical reasons why the home dogs have done so well during the last two weeks. One obvious explanation is that the home-field advantage often tends to be more pronounced late in the year due to weather factors. How many times have we seen warm-weather franchises such as Miami, even with outstanding teams, struggle to win games near the end of the season in cold-weather cities such as Buffalo and Foxboro? Tampa Bay's frustrations in cold-weather climes such as Green Bay and Chicago have long been documented, and in fact weren't overcome until the Bucs finally won in Chicago in week 17 last year and then won the NFC championship in Philadelphia on their way to the Super Bowl.

The reverse climate difficulty has also often been true. Many Northern and Northeastern teams have struggled late in the year at warm-weather sites, although those latter climatic conditions tend not to be as problematic.

There are other plausible explanations for home-dog success. Oftentimes, late-season home dogs are in the position of being able to play the "spoiler" against a team desirous of a playoff berth or important post-season position. If such also-ran teams had shown competence earlier in the season, they wouldn't be home dogs at the end. Thus, those players and coaches – often enduring frustrating campaigns – usually derive a bit of sadistic pleasure and can salvage a measure of professional pride by knocking off one of "the big boys."

Also, toward the end of the year, oddsmakers tend to inflate the pointspreads on many of the favorites, knowing they're going to get more betting action from the public on the favorite rather than the underdog. It's generally the case in the closing weeks of the regular season that sportsbooks are enthusiastically rooting very hard for the underdogs to come through. It's usually a nightmare for sportsbooks when the top "public" teams in the NFL that year win and cover game after game down the stretch.

Lastly, there are several good, but not great, teams each year in the NFL that face late-season "must-win" situations, such as a 7-7 team that must win its last two games to stay alive for a wild-card berth. Generally speaking, the public likes to bet on teams in must-win situations, even as small road favorites. But veteran handicappers know that it's often the case that such mediocre teams in must-win situations have a hard time merely winning the game, much less by any margin at all.

Most of the best teams tend to stay away from the dreaded must-win scenario. One team that didn't last year was Miami, which was in control of things in the AFC through week 15. But the Dolphins lost 20-17 as a three-point favorite at Minnesota in week 16. Even with that loss, the AFC-leading Dolphins still could have locked up the home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but they had to win in week 17 at New England in order to do it. Laying two points to the Patriots on Dec. 29 in Foxboro, Miami forgot to win the game, blowing a fourth-quarter lead and losing in overtime. After the rest of the teams' results that fateful weekend, the Dolphins had fallen from the No.1 position in the AFC to out of the playoffs entirely. They failed both chances as week 16 and week 17 favorites, contributing to the success of the late-season NFL home dogs.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.