Does He Have a King? Do I?

"Whenever I feel afraid, I hold my head erect, and whistle a happy tune, so no one will suspect I'm afraid."

- The King and I, by Rogers and Hammerstein

When Anna was tutoring the children in The King and I, one of the lessons she taught was to "whistle a happy tune." In other words, if you pretend you are not afraid, maybe you won't actually be afraid. Not surprisingly, since this is Card Player, I believe there is a poker equivalent for whistling a happy tune. That idea would be to bet under the right circumstances when a scary card comes. Let's take a look at a hand that illustrates the point nicely.

Visiting member Georges Macar presented the hand to the Wednesday Poker Discussion Group (WPDG) in Las Vegas a few weeks ago. Georges lives in New Caledonia (a very obscure place between Australia and Fiji), and he joins us at the WPDG when he comes to town.

Georges was in the small blind in a $10-$20 hold'em game with a half-kill. The kill was on, with the killer in late position. So, we have a $5 small blind (Georges), a $10 big blind, a $15 late-position kill blind, and the hand will be played at $15-$30.

Georges picked up the Q Q and saw everyone fold to a middle-position player who raised to $30 (we will call him MPP). Only the late-kill player called. Georges three-bet, the big blind folded, and the two others called.

Before we go on, let's decide if the three-bet was correct. If Georges just calls, his hand will be well-disguised, and the big blind might well fold anyway since there is a $30 bet to him and he has posted only $10. In addition, Georges may later make a play at the pot and get some extra calls from players who do not put him on a hand as strong as the one he has. There is even a chance that if the flop were to come A-K-X, he could throw away his queens without any further loss.

While the above is true, I still like his three-bet. There are lots of hands with which the big blind might call the two bets, but not three, and Georges would like to see him fold. For example, he might hold K-J, K-10 suited, 6-6, or A-X. Since the pot is already substantial for the game Georges is playing and likely to grow even more, I like the idea of protecting his hand. In addition, sometimes when you fail to define your hand early, you get into trouble later, as you do not know what your opponents might decide you have. Finally, there is a chance that MPP would raise again. In addition to possibly eliminating the late killer, and thus creating more dead money, this would also help Georges to know what he is up against. Of course, no guarantees come with either play, but I prefer the aggressive one.

Back to the action, the three remaining players got a flop of the J 6 3, which certainly looked like a very favorable flop for Georges' pocket queens. He bet and MPP raised. The third guy folded, and Georges called. Once again, let's look at the options.

His call could be made with the idea of betting the turn if nothing scary happens, or check-raising the turn if nothing scary happens (we define scary here as an ace, king, or jack). He is ahead unless his opponent has A-A, K-K, J-J, or a small set. While any opponent might choose to slow-play aces or kings before the flop, they are certainly less likely to do so because the fourth bet preflop might have chased away a player who had already donated $30. So, the chances are excellent that he is ahead, and a three-bet would also be reasonable.

In fact, if you find yourself in this situation, you might use it as a good way to vary your play. You have every expectation that you are ahead, and three-betting or calling (intending to bet or check-raise later) is about equal. A lot might depend on how you have been playing and how you think your opponent perceives you. If he thinks you are wild, a three-bet might be in order and might lead to excessive action from him. If he thinks you are very tight, the same bet might scare him when he has very few outs if he is behind.

After Georges called, the turn was the K, putting all four suits on the board. This is one of those scary cards we noted above. Georges checked, because his opponent might easily have a king. When Georges related this hand to the WPDG, I asked him what he was going to do if his opponent bet. He said he would call. Would he also call the river? Yes, he would.

I suspect lots of people would play the same way. They do not want to bet and get raised, so they go into check-and-call mode and hope their opponent is aggressively betting a holding worse than queens. If he is, they win, and if not, they lose two more large bets.

Let's take a look at an alternative play. What would happen if Georges bet when the king came? First, let's look at it from his opponent's perspective. Georges has three-bet preflop, bet the flop, called the raise, and now bet out when a king appeared. Doesn't it seem clear that Georges must have A-K? This certainly is the most likely hand to take these actions. I know Georges has no king, but MPP doesn't. In fact, he practically has to believe he is looking at A-K.

How does this help us? Unless something very strange is happening, if MPP raises, he must be able to beat A-K. And if he can beat A-K, he can certainly clobber the queens. Georges can lay down his hand safely at this point and lose only one more big bet on the hand instead of the two he was willing to lose if MPP had a better hand. In addition, if MPP has a worse hand than queens, whether he calls or folds, Georges has avoided giving him a free card by checking the turn.

I know lots of people fear a bluff-raise here (or everywhere) by MPP. However, because he must believe he is facing at least A-K, he must expect that Georges will call the raise. Very few players will fold top pair-top kicker on the turn in this situation. Unless Georges' opponent is one of the trickiest players around, Georges ought to be able to trust this turn raise and release his hand.

By betting the turn, Georges can save a bet when his opponent has a big hand and raises, can gain a bet when his opponent calls and cannot beat queens, can save the whole pot if his opponent folds a hand that might have drawn out on him, and breaks even otherwise (assuming his opponent will bet if checked to if he can beat queens, and Georges calls). What a terrific parlay!

Back to real life, both players checked the turn, and the river was the 2. Georges checked, his opponent bet, and Georges called and won when his opponent showed him A-J. That's nice for Georges, but I thought he should have bet here, especially since his opponent checked the turn. After they both checked the turn, the pot had $205 in it. Georges had to be pretty certain his hand was good, as his opponent checked the turn. If he had bet $30 into this pot, his opponent would have called him with any plausible chance of winning (say, Q-J suited or a hand like pocket tens that made a clever raise on the flop). On the other hand, very few of these hands would be able to bet for value. Furthermore, it was probably hopeless for his opponent to bluff here, given the size of the pot and the preflop strength shown by Georges. So, betting would win a lot more than checking, even though on this hand they would have had the same result.

In my imaginary case where we bet the turn, how should we play the river? I still like the idea of betting, even though there is a fair chance you will be called and lose. Pretty much any hand that will beat you if you bet will also bet if you check, and you will be calling anyway. What if you are raised on the river? Well, there is the problem. The same reasoning we used on the turn should still hold true for the river. From your opponent's perspective, your most likely hand is still A-K. Therefore, he has to expect to be called (the pot would now be $355 and you would have to call $30). Since he is very unlikely to bluff, I believe you can safely lay it down. But, even if you call, you will still probably be ahead in the long run, because your opponent will frequently pay you off when he has a worse hand.

Here, we have a case in which a player who sees a scary card hit on the turn will actually save money or break even by representing it. He has to look at his holding from his opponent's perspective instead of his own. Or, in the words of this column's theme song: "When I fool the people I fear, I fool myself as well."

Barry Tanenbaum welcomes your questions and comments. He also offers private poker lessons and consultations.