Early Conference Games in College Hoops

The across-the-board slate of conference play in college basketball is always an interesting and revealing time for fans of the cage sport. There's often a big difference between pre-conference games and those games that take place after teams settle into conference play.

In the first place, many coaches use the pre-conference season to experiment with their personnel, trying different player combinations, giving playing time to new additions to the team, finding out the strengths and weaknesses of each player, and trying different variations of presses, traps, and zones that they plan to use against different teams in conference play.

Also, keep in mind that many games in pre-conference action consist of various tournament events (Preseason NIT, Coaches vs. Cancer, Maui, Alaska, or Puerto Rico) or numerous other promotional games (Big Ten-ACC Challenge, John Wooden Classic, Tipoff Classic, and so on), or the many Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year's holiday four-team tourneys. Many of these November-December games are played at off-campus sites because much of the student body is away for various holidays. And many are consolation games for teams that lose the first game of a tourney.

Things change once the first week of January rolls around, however. The holidays are over. The students are back in school. The games are back in the campus gyms. The crowds are more lively and intimidating. Coaches do less experimenting. Old, established rivalries are renewed. There are no consolation games. And all teams are tied for first place, or close to it. Wins on the road, where there are usually precious few fans rooting for the visitor, become much harder to come by.

The main thing for sports bettors to remember at this time of the year is not to be overly influenced by performances in pre-conference play. Many pre-conference foes are chosen so that the superior team can get a win, build confidence, develop experience, and provide playing time to younger team members.

Many of those early games can be deceiving. Once conference play starts, points can be harder to come by. The coaches know each other. The older players know each other. They know an opponent's favorite plays. Revenge factors often come into play. The intensity level gets jacked up a couple of notches. Those end-of-the-game free throws that were easy to make in half-filled arenas in Maui or Anchorage become a little tougher to convert in the closing minutes on the road at places such as Stillwater, Lawrence, Durham, or Chapel Hill.

Here are a few brief tips for early conference games:

In judging a team's pre-conference ability, keep in mind that it's who a team beats that counts the most, not by how much it wins. Beating a proven team with good players by two points is much more revealing than beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 50.

Keep an open mind on all teams until they play a game or two on the road in the conference. Wins away from home at tough conference sites are very precious. In fact, some teams don't win a conference road game all season.

Look to go against poor-shooting teams early on the road in the conference. My college hoops guideline is: If you can't shoot, you can't win. (Some accommodation must be made in these days of early departures for the NBA for situations in which neither team can shoot.) More often than not, the visiting team falls behind on the road in early-season games. If the home team is well-coached and the crowd gives it momentum, visitors who can't shoot never catch up, and the deficit widens in the late going.

If you like a spot in early-conference play, try to bet early in the day. Most of the time, the "price" on popular favorites will be higher near game time; for consensus underdogs, it will be lower.

Try to avoid getting caught in "bookmakers' games." If a team wins big in a Wednesday or Thursday game, it will often be asked to cover an extra bucket or two in its Saturday game, even more if its Saturday opponent lost big. A well-coached team will be more focused after a loss. On the other hand, coaches often have a tougher time keeping their players' minds on their business after a victory by a large margin, especially if their upcoming opponent took a whipping. The bookmaker's "game," of course, is to lure bettors into laying extra points if they want the favorite and to allow them fewer points if they prefer the dog.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.