Setting Up a Winning Bluff

Due to the loose nature of most California middle-limit hold'em games, bluffing requires a very skillful approach in order to consistently succeed. As we all know, you don't have to succeed every time to show a long-term profit, but you should aim to succeed every time nonetheless. The key to achieving success is thoroughly understanding how your opponent is reading the situation. In other words, you must act in a way that makes clear sense to him that you have the best hand. Sometimes you'll think you did everything perfectly, but he will still call you down with a marginal hand. Well, you didn't do everything perfectly. You may have neglected some detail, your timing might have been off, your image might have affected his decision, or you just may have chosen the wrong guy to bluff.

Your action should be believable in order for your opponent to muck if he holds something decent.

Let's look at a realistic example: An older guy who we know is fairly conservative, straightforward, and easy to read raises from middle position. His raise means he has either tens or a bigger pair, or two big cards including an ace, 90 percent of the time. He gets one call from the button, a strong but break-even player who plays a tight-aggressive style but still lacks true understanding of how to deal with "situations." You call from the big blind with 3-3, making it threehanded. The flop is K-9-5 with two diamonds, and it is checked around. You check the turn after a deuce falls, putting a second club on board. The older guy now bets, and the button mucks. Well, he might have checked his pocket pair, fearing the king on the flop. Or, he might have a big-card hand like the A Q and is trying a semibluff steal. Here you are in a decent spot to go for the check-raise bluff. At this point, develop the habit of creating a hand for yourself. You want your action to be believable in order for the guy to muck if he holds something decent. Most middle-limit players will not easily release big pairs, especially when heads up with a raggedy flop.

So, let's pretend that your (bluff) hand is K-9, for top two pair, instead of 3-3. You must have the courage to follow through on your bluff with one critical disclaimer. Before you bet out on the river, recall how you would really act if a scary card falls on the end and you hold top two pair. Have your chips ready in order to avoid fumbling, but consider this: The older guy called your check-raise, so he has something. This one step of forethought will elevate your game to another level.

If an ace, queen, jack, 10, or a third club falls (I wouldn't worry about a third diamond, because if he held two big diamonds, I believe he would have bet out on the flop), watch the guy's demeanor, but seriously consider checking and folding if he bets. Your opponent bet out on the turn and called a check-raise. You need to understand how this affects your action on the river.

If you fling your chips in recklessly without considering the river card, the older guy may get suspicious. The time to "bet in the dark" is when you hold a near lock and hope the guy calls you down to keep you honest. Remember that when you check-raised, the board was somewhat disconnected. What might he be putting you on? On this occasion, you should wait patiently. Let the card sink in. Let the older guy see you figuring out if the river card may have killed your hand. This hesitation can often seal the bluff in your favor, because all of your actions will support a genuine hand.

Let's look at a few river cards and how I might proceed:

For any ace except the A, I'm going to be looking for a tell. If he has the A Q or the A J, or even the A 10 (which is very possible in these games), he is almost certain to call. He called your raise on the turn, looking for help, and an ace is plenty of help in his mind. If his body language says he's calling after an ace falls, I'm going to check and muck if he bets. I can save face by verbally commenting on how he rivered my king as I express mild frustration, then muck and not lose valuable image points by exposing the bluff. Plus, I save a bet.

But if the A falls on the river, there is a strong chance that it is the one card that scares him the most. How? Well, the fact that it's now on the board means it's not in his hand, which means he's not holding two big clubs including the A, so he probably has some decent pocket pair, and the flush card/second overcard makes a call for him even tougher. I bet! Keep in mind, this isn't the type of player who comes in raising with Q-J suited or Q-10 suited from early position.

If any queen, jack, or 10 falls, I again want to look for a tell. The question I am asking is, "What does he want me to do?" If the river gives him a set, he wants me to bet, so he can raise. If the river brings him no help, he wants me to check it down and hopes for the best in the showdown. Begin to develop the sensitivity to read the energetics of the situation. Trust your instincts in order for this skill to improve. If I decide to bet, I will likely muck if raised. If I check and he checks, I'll try to induce him to show his hand first. Lots of players will verbally announce, "One pair," hoping their opponent just goes ahead and flips his cards up. The way you played the hand should be a mystery to the other players. Show it only if you absolutely have to.

If any king or 9 falls (though hopefully not a club), I'll act as though I have the full house and will bet quickly. If it's a club and the guy raises, I'll muck confidently; he is not bluffing.

If any other card that pairs the board falls, I'll bet, representing that I filled up. The board pairing will further weaken his hand in his mind. Remember, though, good players realize that a card that pairs the board can counterfeit their opponent's two small pair, and you may get called as a result.

If any rag (including diamonds) other than a club falls, I'll bet. If a diamond falls and this guy has played a lot, he will have seen the semibluff raise enough times to possibly believe that I now have my flush. Plus, if he doesn't have the flush, he will feel his hand has weakened. If he raises my river bet after a diamond falls, this is the only instance in which I might go for the bluff reraise, since I believe there is a chance he is trying to run me off my hand.

As a closing note, your likelihood of pulling off the bluff is only partially dependent on following a consistent course of action that reinforces that you hold what you are representing. I recommend remaining calm and meeting his stare if he looks at you. Avoid tactics like reaching for your cards to "expose the winner" or "acting strong." Of most importance, though, is what you have shown down thus far in that particular session. That is why it is so important in the middle-limit hold'em games in California not to bluff carelessly or frequently, and to rarely show bluffs that have succeeded or failed. If you believe a successful bluff is a strong possibility, put your heart into it and make it happen.