Baseball: Paper Versus Reality

With the 2004 major league baseball season just getting under way, there is no better time for that basic reminder in all sports betting: Above all else, you must focus on what's happening on the field of play.

Surely, there can be no better example of this than the last three seasons in baseball. Much of the preseason talk in each of those years was about "The Evil Empire" of George Steinbrenner's Yankees, about how Steinbrenner was ruining baseball by using the vast financial resources of the huge New York radio, TV, and cable markets to gain a huge advantage over his rivals in a pro sport in which the revenue sharing between franchises was virtually nonexistent. By being willing to pay top dollar for talent and by aggressively adding a key player or two (or three, or four) during the stretch drives, the Yankees had won four of the last five World Series championships, including three in a row through the 2000 campaign.

Other teams appear to have little chance against the new Yankee dynasty. However, the last three years – 2001, '02, and '03 – have shown once again that the focus has to be on the field of play, not in the sports pages or "on paper," because in those last three years, the Yankees forgot to win the World Series, losing first to Arizona, then being dispatched in the American League Championship Series by Anaheim, and last year losing to upstart Florida. The reputation of the powerful Yankees doesn't always live up to reality, nor is their edge so decided that some of the "little guys" such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Marlins can't knock them off in big games.

I'm using the Yankees not to deride them, but only because citing them as an example is so obvious. In fact, in handicapping baseball each season, there are dozens of potentially profitable situations that occur, which is why baseball is a popular wagering sport for "those in the know." Here are just a few situations from the 2003 season:

The Dodgers were a huge flop, despite their excellent starting pitching and virtually untouchable reliever, Eric Gagne, who ended up winning the 2003 Cy Young Award. However, they scored the fewest runs in the majors. How could management put a team on the field with so little support for that marvelous pitching staff? Answer: Management really didn't expect leftfielder Brian Jordan and first baseman Fred McGriff to miss huge parts of the season with injuries, and rightfielder Shawn Green to play virtually the entire year with a tear in his shoulder that weakened his powerful swing. Of the players batting third, fourth, fifth, and sixth in the Dodger lineup, Jordan, Green, and McGriff were three of them.

The Angels entered the 2003 season as the defending World Champs, with record ticket sales, and their lineup virtually intact. Shortly after midseason, however, the Halos were playing games with fully seven of their starting nine on the sidelines with injuries. It's hard to win that way.

The young Florida Marlins were a team full of promise entering last season. But they were so disappointing that by the middle of the season, manager Jeff Torborg – one of the most popular in the game – was fired and replaced by "retread" Jack McKeon, who was no longer even in baseball! Somehow, the Marlins scratched their way into the National League wild card spot and then sprang consecutive upsets of the Giants, Cubs, and Yankees to win the World Series.

From the handicapping perspective, here's how focusing on what's happening on the field of play was useful. For most of the season, the Dodgers' good pitching and weak offense made them a terrific "under" play. Sometimes they would play a week's worth of games in which only one involved a total of more than seven runs! The Angels, despite being the defending champs, were a great go-against team for most of the season. They often laid high prices with weak pitching and only half their starting lineup of the previous year. The Marlins, thanks to the lowered expectations, were among the best underdogs, especially in the postseason.

There are dozens of other examples. Lefthander Mike Hampton, so erratic at "Coors Canaveral" with the Rockies in 2002 with a 7-15 record and an ERA of 6.15, goes to Atlanta in 2003 and gets a new team, new pitching coach, and new ballpark, and goes 14-8 with an ERA of 3.84.

Two years ago, Eric Gagne went from unsuccessful starter to a closer with no experience in the role and saved 52 games for the Dodgers. Who knew? That same 2002 season, Derek Lowe of the Red Sox moved out of the bullpen, going from shaky closer to a 21-game winner as a starter!

Already this season, Gary Sheffield of the Yankees has a finger injury that could sideline him. The shadow of the steroid scandal is hanging over several stars. What will happen? Who knows?

But I do know this: If you focus on how the players are playing on the field and how the teams are executing – regardless of how they rated "on paper" or how they've done in the past – you're going to have a great chance to succeed in betting on baseball, the one game that gives you the greatest chance for daily opportunity.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, or would like information on its Late Telephone Service, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.