Poker Strategy -- The Delayed All-In PlayA Closer Look At A New Trend |
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It’s the middle stages of an online tournament. The action is folded to the cutoff, who raises to two and a half times the big blind. The button, who is about 20 big blinds deep, flat-calls. The flop comes, the cutoff fires a continuation-bet (CB), and the button goes all in.
In one form or another, I’ve witnessed this play repeatedly in the past few months. Certain plays seem to fall in and out of style, and right now, this one is most definitely in. In the past, the more common play was for the button to simply shove preflop, and that still happens quite often. But now, the button is more likely to make the delayed all-in play, flat-calling preflop and waiting until the flop to shove.
There’s no way to know for sure, but my guess is that for now, it’s probably succeeding often enough to make it a stronger play than the preflop shove. Of course, one reason for its success is that it’s relatively new as a widespread play. Many players may not recognize it, and therefore not know how to react. Let’s take a look at when and how to make this move:
1. The stacks need to be just right. Your effective stacks need to be about 20 to 25 big blinds deep, in which case an all-in reraise preflop would be an overbet, but a post-flop all-in raise is just right. It’s big enough to get the bettor off his hand if he didn’t flop anything decent, but not so big that it appears desperate.
2. This play usually works better when the button is the shorter stack and is putting himself all in with his post-flop raise. By contrast, the play does not work as well when the button is the deeper stack and is putting the cutoff all in. In the second scenario, the cutoff will have already invested about one-third of his stack before facing the button’s all-in shove. Many players are usually willing to risk their tournament lives once they’ve put one-third of their stack in the pot, so this play wouldn’t succeed nearly as often.
The exception occurs when you are near the bubble, or near some other big-money jump. In those cases, it actually works better if the button is the deeper stack and is putting the cutoff all in. Once there are prizepool considerations, such that survival becomes a priority, the chances of getting a shorter-stacked cutoff to fold become significantly greater.
3. You have to consider the tendencies of the players in the blinds. If they are tricky and aggressive, they might see a cutoff raise and a button call and decide that it’s the perfect time for a squeeze play. That works in your favor if you have a premium hand, but it also means that you need to be wary about attempting this play with a marginal one. On the other hand, if the blinds have played tight and can be expected to fold, it allows you to open up your range that much more.
4. You want to choose instances in which you suspect the cutoff is weak, but that doesn’t mean you should attempt this play with any two cards. Even if he was raising with rags, his chances of flopping something decent and deciding to call your all-in bet are probably around 30 percent, which is pretty consistent with the pot odds you’d be laying him.
Ideally, you’d like a hand with some showdown value, even if it’s ace high, in case he decides to call you on a draw. Plus, you want to have some potential outs for the times that he calls with one pair, and you will frequently have at least three outs with an ace in your hand.
5. Theoretically, this play should work just as well as a check-raise, perhaps even better. It could be argued that if the cutoff raises and the button calls preflop, the cutoff will often be cautious about making a CB if he misses the flop. That essentially takes the all-in play away from the button, unless he decides to make a drastic overbet.
On the other hand, if the cutoff checks the flop, it’s extremely likely that the button will sense weakness and CB with plenty of hands that missed the flop. That would give the
cutoff the chance to check-raise all in, and presumably cause the button to fold after having invested the CB. With that in mind, it often seems better to make a delayed all-in play as a check raise from the cutoff than as a raise in position from the button.
But from the limited sample that I’ve witnessed, it often doesn’t play out that way. For some reason, when the cutoff has check-raised all in on the fl op, the button has called with some surprisingly weak hands. I’m not sure why that has been the case, but it doesn’t really matter. The bottom line is that the delayed all-in check-raise makes logical sense, and should get the button to fold most of his lesser hands, but don’t be shocked if he calls with some surprisingly weak ones.
6. I used the cutoff-versus-button example because that’s what I’ve seen most frequently, but you’ll also see this same play made in blind-versus-blind confrontations. However, in those cases, a better argument can be made for simply reraising all in preflop from the big blind, especially if the small blind is the type to raise with any two cards when first in from the small blind. Since his raising range is far wider than it would be from the cutoff, he can be expected to fold more often preflop.
In the blind-versus-blind scenario, it’s probably a close enough decision that it becomes a matter of preference. Are you more interested in survival? If so, you should probably shove preflop from the big blind and expect to win uncontested more often. Are you more concerned about gathering chips? If so, waiting until after the flop and shoving over the small blind’s CB won’t succeed as often, but you’ll pick up more chips when it does. Good arguments could be made for either choice.
Perhaps someone has made this play against you, and you didn’t recognize it for what it was. That’s perfectly understandable. When you’re involved in a hand and focused on your own cards, it’s tougher to tell when a person is making a pre-designed play against you. Instead, you are more focused on whether or not you made a hand, and what hands your opponent might have that caused him to go all in.
The trick is to take a step back from the situation. Look at positions, stack sizes, and betting patterns. Then, ask yourself, “Was he prepared to go all in no matter what flopped?” You might be surprised by how often the answer is, “Yes.” 
Matt Lessinger is the author of The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker, available everywhere.
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