The Poker Hand Critic: Don't Be Results Oriented With Failed Value-BetsGutter23 Takes A Look At A Value-Bet Gone Wrong |
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The Poker Hand Critic is a brand new series by online pro “gutter23,” one of the top mid-stakes players in the game today. The Poker Hand Critic will break down a hand, street by street, offering up his analysis on all of the action.
The following hand comes from a 10-handed, uncapped $5-$5 home game in Toronto. The game has been relatively tight and more talkative and social than usual.
The Players
Villain 1 (UTG +1, $2,500): Intelligent and successful businessman, but a losing recreational player. He is loose preflop, passive post-flop and rarely gets out of line.
Villain 2 (Button, $2,000): Competent but inexperienced recreational player who is a small long-term winner. He is a knowledgeable player and is capable of mixing it up.
The Action
Villain 1 opens to $30.
Villain 2 (Q
J) calls $30.
The preflop action is standard with $30 being a typical opening raise in this game. There is no need to three-bet Q-J suited as it plays well post-flop in position.
Flop ($70): Q
Q
10
Villain 1 checks.
Villain 2 bets $50.
Villain 1 calls $50.
This is clearly a great board for Villain 2 as he flops trips with a strong kicker. The passive Villain 1 checks, which is typical for him, and it’s difficult to assign him a narrow range. Villain 1 may have bluff-catching hands such as 9-9, J-J, K-K, A-A where his plan is to pot-control to try and get to showdown cheaply. It’s also possible that he is playing flush or straight draws passively or has a hand that missed the flop and will check-fold. In addition, he will occasionally be slow-playing monsters like 10-10, Q-10, K-Q, A-Q.
Villain 2 bets $50 when checked to, which is an appropriate bet size for this wet board texture, and Villain 1 calls.
Turn ($170): 7
Villain 1 checks.
Villain 2 bets $140.
Villain 1 calls $140.
The 7 is a brick which doesn’t affect the hand. When Villain 1 check-calls the 80 percent pot-sized bet, we can start to dismiss hands from his range. Without a full house and given the flush and straight draw possibilities on the flop, this particular villain will very infrequently just call the turn with hands like K-Q and A-Q. Villain 1 will almost certainly check-raise these hands, which is a typical play for a losing amateur player.
After discounting these strong hands, Villain 1 is left with flush and straight draws, monsters and bluff-catchers.
River ($450): 5
Villain 1 checks.
Villain 2 bets $320.
Villain 1 goes all-in for $1,460 effective stacks.
Villain 2 folds.
The river is an inconsequential 5. When Villain 1 checks, it is mandatory that Villain 2 bets. Although I’d prefer a slightly smaller bet of around $260, value-bets such as these separate a marginal winner from a big winner. Although Villain 1 will fold his missed draws, he will often make a crying call from his bluff-catching range of 9-9, J-J, K-K, A-A.
After Villain 1 shoves, it’s an easy laydown for Villain 2 as his opponent either has Q-T or T-T.
Passive recreational players are never, ever bluff check-raising this river. In thousands of hours playing live poker, I’ve seen it only a couple of times.
After Villain 1 shoves, Villain 2 slaps the table in frustration, contemplates for a few minutes, flashes me his cards and makes a disciplined but correct laydown. He is agitated and upset and says to me, “What a terrible value-bet by me, I’m never going to do that again." This brings us to the topic of being results-oriented.
All poker players at some point are told to avoid being results oriented and this usually occurs after they get in A-A against K-K preflop and lose. Even though they put their money in as an 80-percent favorite and will show a sizable long-term profit in this spot, they are dismayed. It is painful when “your” pot is being pushed to your lucky opponent. Although this situation feels terrible, if given another opportunity, they will gladly put their money in again preflop with aces against kings.
When Villain 2 expressed that he would never value-bet in that spot again to avoid getting check-raised all-in, I realized that this hand demonstrated a different and far more severe type of being results-oriented. The type where someone makes the right decision, loses the hand, and avoids making that profitable bet in the future.
So what was Villain 2 upset about? It wasn’t that he cared about the actual money lost as I’ve watched him lose far bigger pots and remain calm and unfazed. It also wasn’t because he thought he was bluffed. He, along with the rest of the table, knew that Villain 1 had a full house when he went all-in. The reason was simple; it was because he hadn’t anticipated the river check-raise all-in. He didn’t see the raise coming and it blindsided him.
So what can we do to avoid the pain and anguish felt by Villain 2? Have a plan! When making every decision in poker, especially river decisions, it’s vital to have a plan. Before betting, Villain 2 should have thought to himself, "I’m going to value-bet this river to get called by a worse hand and if he raises or goes all-in, he’s never bluffing and I’m going to fold.” There shouldn’t be any negative emotions after your opponent goes all-in since you’ve anticipated this move and decided your response.
Readers, ask yourself this question. Am I going to be the player who avoids making thin value-bets to dodge river check-raises or am I going to be the type of player who will be prepared for these raises? I know which direction Villain 2 is heading and it’s the opposite of me.
Gutter23 plays mid-stakes full ring cash games and has had a great deal of success over the past five years. He was named the low-stakes online player of the year by PokerTableRatings in 2011 and is one of the few cash game grinders who truly understands the nuances of both live and online poker.
You can send in your questions and comments to [email protected].
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