Poker Strategy With Ed Miller: Reverse Bet Sizing Tells

If you ask most people what’s so great about no-limit hold’em versus limit hold’em, they’ll tell you that it’s in the bet sizing. In no-limit you can bet however much you think you need to get the job done. If you are trying to push someone off a hand, you can bet big and really put the screws to them. If you are trying to squeak out a crying call, you can size your bet just small enough that your opponent won’t be able to resist.

For me, however, probably my favorite aspect of no-limit hold’em is the bet-sizing tells. My opponents feel like they can size their bets to try to accomplish what they want. And I can figure out what they’re trying to accomplish by looking at their bet sizing.

I use this class of tells all the time. In live no-limit cash games, I rely on them so heavily that I will often delay taking the aggressive lead in a hand just so I get a chance to see how big a bet my opponent chooses to make on the next street.

For instance, say my opponent raises preflop and I call. The flop comes with three cards, and I flop a straight draw. My opponent bets. Instead of raising immediately as a semibluff, I will often just call. I want to throw the action back to my opponent one more time. If he checks, that’s a big tell. And if he bets, the size he chooses to bet will often tell me if my opponent is likely weak and I should bluff-raise the turn or if my opponent is likely too strong to fold.

I’m not the only one who uses bet-sizing tells. When I play $2-$5 and $5-$10, I frequently observe other players react to bet sizing.

One of the interesting things is that certain bet-sizing tells are common among many regular players at a given stakes. This fact permits you to mimic these tells and misrepresent your hand convincingly. Here are two examples of reverse bet-sizing tells that I use regularly in $2-$5 and $5-$10 games in Las Vegas.

The Turn Probe Bet

Say an aggressive player opens for $20 in a $2-$5 game. The button calls, and I call in the big blind (BB). The flop comes A 7 5. I check, and the raiser bets $45. The button folds, and I call.

The turn is the 2. I bet out $50 into the $152 pot.

This small, out of turn bet on the brick has a fairly well-known meaning for most $2-$5 players. It says, “I have an ace, I don’t love my kicker, and I’m trying to see where I’m at.” With a strong kicker or two pair or better, most players — if they chose to bet out of turn like this — would bet at least $80 or more. With these strong hands, the purpose of the bet would be to deny a free card, not to probe for information.

But with the weak kicker, the blind player is trying to find out without investing too much money if his hand is good or not.

Aggressive players at this level react predictably to this small bet. They raise. If someone wants to know where he’s at, you tell him he’s beat.

This is a great bet to use for a reverse tell. Any time you want to get money in the pot, you can break out the fake probe bet.

You can also use it as a bluff. Say you have 8-6 or a flush draw on the A 7 5 2 board. If you check, your opponent might check it back, and you could miss your bluffing opportunity. But if you fake probe bet, you could induce a raise from an aggressive player. Then you could three-bet the raise, which will look to the aggressive player very, very much like you flopped a set.

This is a great reverse tell to break out against any aggressive player.

The Flop Overprotection Bet

Say there are two limpers, and I raise to $25. The BB and the limpers both call.

The flop comes Q J 7. Everyone checks to me, and I bet $120 into the $102 pot.

This is a classic bet-sizing tell. If the bettor is a “standard” regular at the $2-$5 level in Vegas, this bet size has a very specific meaning. It means that the bettor has top pair with a strong kicker or an overpair. He’s fairly sure his hand is best, so he’s willing to bet big with it. But he’s worried about getting drawn out on, so he bets a ton to charge the maximum. He’s not worried about losing his action due to the big bet — he’s fine just winning what’s out there. This is the “get out of my pot” bet.

And, typically, that’s what happens. Everyone gets out of the pot.

I call this the flop overprotection bet because that’s what it is — overprotection of a medium strength hand. You rarely want to kill your action intentionally when you hold a strong hand, and holding A-Q or K-K on this Q J 7 flop is no exception. Nevertheless, $2-$5 players overprotect in this situation habitually.

This is a great bet size to break out when you want three folds. Recently I played a hand just like this one — same action and flop — and I held A K. The first player folded, and then the second player — a regular at the level — hemmed and hawed for a full 90 seconds. Eventually he folded. The last player folded quickly, and I won.

I am almost certain the second player had a hand like Q-10 or Q-9. He would normally never just check and fold top pair to one flop bet. But my flop bet wasn’t any flop bet — it was this classic flop overprotection bet. He knew what the bet sizing tell meant about my hand, and eventually he made the “disciplined” laydown.

Final Thoughts

Bet-sizing tells play a huge role in my live game strategy. The great thing about these tells is that your opponents both put money into the pot and, at the same time, tell you about their hand strength. Whenever it’s close, I like to throw action to my opponents to let them bet and give me a possible tell.

But I’m not the only one who can use these tells. Most regular players will have some familiarity with what the most common bet-sizing tells mean. This means that you can reverse these tells against these players to misrepresent your hand.

If you choose your spots well, these plays can be extremely effective. ♠

Ed’s newest book, Poker’s 1%: The One Big Secret That Keeps Elite Players On Top is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the brand new site redchippoker.com.

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